It won't be a war, but it'll be one hell of a battle!

The US PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (Ocean Course)

It's the last major of the season this week and it looks brutal, from a betting prospective and a playing one too. I was still building sand castles when the infamous ‘War on the Shore’ took place at Kiawah Island in 1991. From what I’ve read online the Americans were even more patriotic than usual, the Gulf War had just ended; but this time, the Yanks were at a war that they were actually welcome too, the Ryder Cup.

Kiawah Island Ocean Course

I am sure you have all read, or for the older readers saw what happened that week, but to sum it up quickly, there was poo everywhere! In the final day pairings Calcavecchia was 4 up with four holes to play against Monty and finished triple bogey, bogey, triple bogey, bogey! Wow, Pancake Factory or what?! And people talk about Scott’s finish at the Lytham! The US won the Ryder Cup that year when Langer missed a short putt on the final hole.

Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course, is a monster, designed by the master Pete Dye, it measures 7,676 yards and from what I’ve read it can be stretched further with most holes having multiple tee boxes. If it wasn’t already long enough, it’s wet this week and with ten of the holes running along the Atlantic the wind is going to play a massive part, as I said MONSTER! Another aspect of the course that is sure to get the players attention are the Paspalum greens. They have very little grain; this type of grass is used to deal with the seawater air (or so I’ve read). Tiger has stated that he has only played on these types of greens once! So expect a lot of “I just couldn’t get my speed” comments from Tiger in his pressers if things aren’t going right!

I haven’t been online much this week due to my slight obsession with the Olympics but from what I have seen it’s almost like a Barney Curley style gamble on Dustin Johnson. This bothers me for two reasons, one, its very rare a popular punt comes off and two I didn’t take the bigger antepost price even though I’ve had him in mind for months, amateur gambling at it’s very best folks! Anyways, I can’t desert the big man now so he’s my first selection this week. I have posted DJ’s performance stats a little too much recently, he seems to be a constant headline act on my blog so I’ll spare you the figures again this week. What I will say is that he has the attributes to win here, most notably his length. His short game has improved, which will be a big plus with the run off areas around the greens. There'll be a big emphasis on scrambling. I backed him last week and he just seemed to be missing something, but the PGA owes him after ‘Bunkergate’ in 2010 and hopefully he gets his revenge with a W on Sunday.

The Barney Curley gamble - Dustin Johnson

My second pick is another player I had last week, Bubba Watson. Like DJ I fancy Bubba to do well because of his power. I just don’t see how a Luke Donald or Zach Johnson type player can win this week. Length is key and as Bubba showed with his Masters victory he can also pitch and putt when required. I like mentioning omens on my blog, so here’s another…. Bubba and the Missus got custody of their son Caleb on the Monday of Masters week; Monday past they “officially” became parents! From reading the article about this, it appears the whole adoption case was a lot more complex than was first portrayed by the media, with all the T’s crossed etc Bubba might be ready for another big performance in a major.

He needs to be 'Bubba long' this week - Bubba Watson

My third pick is a past winner; a short game extraordinaire and I don’t think has ever appeared on my blog! Phil Mickelson is on a terrible run of finishes on the PGA Tour, and quite frankly I don’t know why I fancy him to go well this week! His lone victory this year did come at Pebble Beach (similar elements), which is a plus, and I think he’s got the skills for a few up and downs (sarcasm), so that’s a couple of pluses! Negatives would be his driving accuracy (168^th on tour) and as stated above his poor run of results. But I don’t think you have to be the straightest driver on tour to get round here, length from the tee will be much more important. Putting wise he’s in good shape this year and add the fact that when in position he can get the job done his price this week mumbles “value” to me so he’s getting each-way money from yours truly!

You  can't put a price on experience - Phil Mickelson

For my fourth pick I was going to have McIlroy but I have changed my mind for a bigger price option. Last years Fed Ex Cup Champ Bill Haas is another golfer who has had a very quiet/poor season after a win early on. But he has had a couple of Top 20’s in his last two outings (Open Championship, Bridgestone) which is a step in the right direction. It’s approaching that time of the year where he won a lot of dollaaa last year. He’s a consistent driver of the ball, not massively long but ranks in the Top 30 in ‘Total Driving’ this year and he can scramble too, he’s in the Top 5 for Scrambling from 30 yards or less, did I mention the run off areas? Ok, it appears I did!

Bill Haas

With my obsession of an American winner this week I thought I’d have a look at the ‘Top European’ market. GMAC jumped straight off the page to me. Luke Donald as market leader made me chuckle a little. McDowell has had a stellar year in the Majors (T-12^th, T-2^nd, T-5^th) and there’s nothing to suggest that the elements at Kiawah Island should stop him putting in another decent showing this week. Some people might say he’s in the Luke Donald, Zach Johnson group with his length off the tee, but with his love of the wind and ‘the grind’ he jumps out of that group and into the group of players that could grind their way to a good finish. At the prices I think he’s real value for ‘Top European’.

"Cheers Timmy" - Graeme McDowell

My picks are:

Dustin Johnson 25/1 each way with Paddy Power (6 places)

Bubba Watson 35/1 each way with Bet Victor (6 places)

Phil Mickelson 45/1 each way with Bet365 (6 places)

Bill Haas 75/1 each way with Bet365 (6 places)

Graeme McDowell 12/1 each way ‘Top European’ with Bet365 (4 places)