The Masters at Augusta National
Well folks, it's that time of year again, where all the fair weather golfers dust down their clubs in anticipation for the start of the golf season. It's Masters week. As a club golfer it's a week of mixed emotions, as you can't wait for the world's best to try and conquer Amen Corner, but you also know wee 'arry the carpenter, come painter will be butchering your golf course on Saturday with his mates after watching some of the highlights on TV.
There's two noticeable absentees this week, one has never had a woman underneath him, the other has had a few. Tiger Woods last week joined the Eisenhower tree as casualties before the start of this years Masters and though both are a noticeable miss, come Sunday, both will be somewhat irrelevant in what should be a cracking renewal. For those who don't follow golf too closely, the Eisenhower tree was a massive pine, situated on the left side of the 17th fairway. It was named after the former President, after he campaigned to have it removed because he kept hitting it. He proposed to the Augusta members to have it cut down, but wasn't successful.
Tiger struggled all year with his back and last week confirmed what a few people thought, he wouldn't be playing Augusta this year. I think I was caught in two minds, I was sad he wouldn't be playing, but happy that he wants to look after himself, so that he can hopefully entertain us for another decade yet. A few mindless keyboard warriors on Twitter were put in their place too, after announcing that he was putting it all on, to hide the fact he couldn't compete with the younger guys anymore. Clueless.
I think the Masters is one event where a lot of the 'tipsters' tend to agree on what sort of criteria a player must fill in order to win a Green Jacket. That said, and this year more than most, there hasn't been much agreement on who the winner might be. Relatively good form this season is desirable but course form is a must. Debutants don't have a great record (remember I said this when reading my picks), with the only debutant winner being Fuzzy Zoeller's all the way back when people were actually being named Fuzzy (1979). This year there are 24 debutants at Augusta and a few will fancy their chances this week. Although it is a massive trend, I think with the way the young guys are coming through with absolutely no fear, zero respect (in a respectful way) for the old guard it's only a matter of time before this trend gets smashed. It could be this year.
Again for the people who are reading, who may not be up to the speed with the course itself. Augusta is a Par 72 measuring nearly 7,500 yards which historically suits a golfer who can shape a ball right to left. This tends to suit the bombers and the recent winners (save Zach Johnson) were all pretty long with the big stick. I think it's safe to say (someone will disagree with me) that of all the majors it's the one where accuracy off the tee isn't a massive thing, agree? The rough isn't as penal as other courses on the major schedule, but you still need to keep it outa the pines! The stats you really want to look at are Greens in Regulation and Scrambling. If you fancy a player that is high up in the former, forget the latter, if he's low down the rankings in GIR, you better hope he's high up in the scrambling. Augusta's greatest defence are it's greens.
I usually only back a few golfers when I have a bet, but this week I've gone a bit mad and backed five. A couple of past champs, a couple of young players and a debutant, yes I'm taking on the trend!
First up is Zach Johnson. With what I wrote above, most people (and many have backed him) would of thought I would be going for the other Johnson (Dustin), but I'm quietly confident that one of the shortest hitters to ever win a Masters, can actually win it again. It's a selection that I am 100% sure
will divide opinion, but here's why I like his chances this week. In what is known as a 'wrap around'
season (season starts end of 2013) he has had two wins and three other Top 10's, including a T6 in his last start (Valero Texas Open). He has never had a better run of form going into a Masters, and it should be noted that the last two majors of 2013 he had Top 10 finishes, after a Top 10 finish in his last event before them. Clearly carrying form into a major is key for him. I'm sure there'll be a few to pop up and say that when he won in 2007 he didn't break par for the week, but I'd ask, who did? People will also be quick to say that he's too short, but he was 12 under par for the Par 5's, the year he won. His wedge play is phenomenal to watch, with no better example than when he holed out in Tiger's tourney to beat him. Ridiculous shot. When I look at his stats this year I'm filled with more confidence, he's Top 5 in Driving Accuracy, Top 15 in GIR, 2nd in Scoring Average and Top 10 in Birdie Average. With the course getting a soaking, I fancy more players will have to lay up on the Par 5's, if so, he'll get down in fewer shots that the majority of the field. Big showin' please, Zach.
Next up is another previous champ and this guy doesn't play golf like the rest of us. Bubba Watson is as unique as they come, but for what he lacks in common sense at times, he makes up for in imagination. When I said earlier that the players that tend to play well shape the ball right to left, I meant the traditional drawers of the ball, a little inside to out, Bubba can shape it both ways. Two of my favourite shots of his illustrate that point perfectly. The first being a driver off the fairway in Hawaii, where he cut the ball about 50 yards right to left and landed it on a green that nobody hit all day. The second was of course his tournament winning wedge shot where he hooked it on to the green; still hard to believe he pulled it off, even now. The worry (it's not really a worry) is that he pulled out of his last tourney after a monster score, claiming he had allergy problems, though I think he just wasn't at the races and fancied a bit of time at home before a busy schedule. Like Zach,
Bubba has had his best start to a season coming into the Masters, a win, two runner up finishes and
three other Top 10s tells you the guy is in form (if we put a line through his WD). Unsurprisingly he leads the tour in Driving Distance, but the pleasing stat to read is, he has hit 70% GIR this year on the PGA Tour. If he keeps that up, he could well be toasting baby Jesus on Sunday Night. I really need to stop making the religion jokes when writing about Bubba. Sorry, not sorry.
Now we get to one of the Top 5 best players in the world, or maybe not. Patrick Reed is a win and PR campaign away from avoiding fighting Manny Pacquiao for the rest of his career (he nearly sells himself better than Floyd Mayweather. Not funny when I have to explain it). We all had a giggle after his interview when he won the WGC Cadillac Championship, but after the dust settled you had to appreciate how impressively he has started his pro career. He's won twice already this year, which is as good as it gets, unless you live with Jimmy Walker, in which case you still sit at the children's table. Reed will definitely test my theory, that you don't have to be straight to win at Augusta as he's seen as many fairways as I have this year. But he can putt and he plays Par 5's pretty well, which is key around this track. Of the debutants, he's my favourite and his confidence (some might say arrogance) will serve him well, in what could be a great opportunity in a wide open event this year.
My fourth pick is Rickie Fowler. The wee man didn't shine for me at Doral when I fancied him there, but another strong showing in a Texas last week has convinced me to give him another go. His season hasn't been near as successful or consistent as my previous picks, with four missed cuts and only the two Top 10s, but he falls into the category of players that have a few appearances under their belt and have showed some sort of course form without any Top 10s to speak of. It should be noted that he took the opportunity to get a private jet down to Augusta last week with McIlroy for some early practise and got a couple of rounds in before playing in Texas. His game is still a working
progress under Butch, but Butch knows how to get his players a green jacket and with a good putting week he can contend.
My final selection is Hideki Matsuyama. Some what of an unknown to the fans that don't follow the sport particularly closely. He is only a pup from Japan, but this will be his third appearance at Augusta and with the experience he has built he can contend. He won the low amateur in 2011 and had another go the following year, but blew out in the last round. He is now a pro and has won four events in Japan putting himself at the top of the list of possible Asian winners of the major championships, in the not so distant future. The reason I have selected him is more for his major record than his wins in the last year, which sounds strange considering he's only teed it up three times; but he's had two Top 10's and a Top 20 finish. His ball striking is as good as you'll see, he absolutely stripes it for a wee guy. His driving distance is nicely complimented by a decent iron game, which is a nice combo for Augusta.
If you have had a read and think you'd like to listen to some professional opinions, you can tune into Sky Channel 861 on Tuesday at 8pm and listen to Ben (@bencoleygolf) and Sam (@golfpunters) who you may (should) follow on Twitter.
Good luck with your selections this week. My staking plan is below:
Zach Johnson - 33/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 2 pts each way
Bubba Watson - 28/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way
Patrick Reed - 66/1 with Ladbrokes 5 places - 1 pt each way
Rickie Fowler - 66/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way
Hideki Matsuyama - 80/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way
Total stake - 12 pts
Total stake - 12 pts
Be lucky!
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