Donald in 'Stealth Mode' to grab the Green Jacket

Masters week has finally arrived and to say I’m buzzing with anticipation for Thursday is an understatement. I think there’s a different feel to the Masters than any of the other majors.



I don’t remember a Masters in recent years with this type of build up, the media have really exhausted the whole Tiger versus Rory match up in recent days, but you can understand why. When Rory won the US Open last year everyone practically awarded the next few majors to him without a tee shot being hit. This was down to two main reasons, one being; they argued that McIlroy was only going to get better, and the second reason was that he didn’t have any long term competition to speak of. To be honest I agreed with them, Tiger was in the depths of despair with his game, Mickelson was getting on a little and there didn’t look to be anyone up and coming with enough talent to challenge his week in week out. But roll on 9 months, Tiger has found his swing again with Sean Foley, Keegan Bradley has turned into a real class act and Luke Donald just seems to be a thorn in everyone’s side.

Obviously everyone has their opinion on Tiger; I do, and like everyone I’ve aired mine a few times. But this blog is about the Masters this week so I won’t start a rant; I just hope that after this week that regardless of your opinion on Tiger the person, you will agree that golf needs Tiger Woods. Looking back through the years you see that there has been some great rivalaries, Nicklaus had Watson, Faldo had Norman, Woods and Mickelson and McIlroy will hopefully have the second coming of Tiger Woods. When watching the golf on the Saturday of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and seeing how comfortable Woods seemed to be with his swing again I cheekily tweeted a few of the big bookmakers to ask for a price on Tiger and Rory being paired together in the final group on Sunday at the Masters, I was offered 16/1 which I thought was quite reasonable and invested some of my hard earned cash!

Will we see this on Sunday?

With all of the above said, I started the blog to try and find some value in the tournaments and nothing has changed this week. With Woods and McIlroy at the head of the market and with very skinny odds I think the 16/1 on Luke Donald is a cracking each way bet, ¼ the odds for 5 places is a real banker in my opinion.  I had backed him last year when he came T-4 before he went on to having an unbelievable year, winning BOTH money titles, the first time that had ever been done. He went out and won a tournament he had to win to wrap up the money title in America, that’s delivering under pressure and that’s a quality you need if you have any intention of winning a major. After last year, pundits questioned would he be able to play again to that level, well, he’s already won again this year and retained his Number 1 spot from McIlroy, so that answers that; the win also happened to be his last start (Transitions Tournament) so he’s carrying plenty of momentum into this week.

Another Englishman I fancy to go well this week is Justin Rose. T-11 last year and already a ‘W’ this year he seems to have established himself as the player everyone hoped he would be when he burst on the scene as an amateur in the Open Championship nearly 15 years ago! When you are looking for a player to invest money in you need to find someone who hits plenty of GIR (Greens in Regulation). If you short side yourself round Augusta you drop shots, fact! Well unless it’s the 16th hole and your name's Tiger Woods, Nike made an ad from that one! Rose is comfortably inside the Top 20 in GIR and like Donald carries plenty of momentum after his win at the WGC Cadillac tourney. One thing I would say about Rose and it was well demonstrated at Bay Hill is that when his putter is cold, it’s ice cold! Hopefully this week he finds the puttering stroke he had at Doral, if he does, he’ll be bang there.

I, of course tipped up Adam Scott at the start of the season, (see Ante Post Masters post) and although I am disappointed in his season thus far he still remains a threat, T-2 last year and hasn’t played much this year.

Now for a few Top 10/20 bets. Angel Cabrera is 5/2 to finish in the Top 20 and 13/2 to finish in the Top 10. El Pato (The duck) as he is affectionately known as is a previous winner and seems to find his best form round here regardless of how he’s being playing in the weeks prior. He missed the cut the week before the Masters last year, before finished 7th, he was 73rd the week before the 2010 Masters where he notched up at Top 20 finish and in 2009 when he won the Masters he missed the cut the week before! He was T-21 last week, enough said!

Another Top 20 finish I fancy this week is Martin Laird. Laird has been a real solid player in the States. He move there to play college golf and now resides in Arizona. Laird has two PGA Tour wins, and 17 Top 10 finishes in his short time on tour. That’s pretty impressive when you think of the depth of the PGA Tour nowadays. He has had two Top 5 finishes already this year and had a real strong finish to last year; he also finished in a T-20 in the Masters in his first appearance at Augusta. The 4/1 for a Top 20 finish is well worth a punt!

You can’t really write a blog about the Masters without mentioning Freddie Couples, for obvious reasons. Couples is one of those players that every so often come along; in every sport, who people seem to relate to and cheer for regardless of how well he may or may not be playing. He is of course now plying his trade on the Champions Tour where he is still getting a few ‘W’s!  When I was thinking of putting him up as a selection I thought mhhmmmm surely he’s too old? There’s bound to better value elsewhere? But 11 Top 10’s and a victory (’92) in his career at Augusta I thought I would be crazy not to point him out. The most ridiculous stat of them all is that of those 11 Top 10’s, he’s had at least one of them in each of the last FOUR decades, boom! *dusts down shoulder* Will Hill offer 10/3 for him to grab a Top 20 finish come Sunday evening.

The Legend that is Fred Couples

With the bookies offering so many different markets it’s hard to go through them all and pick out selections. All the top firms have, Top European, Top Australasian, Top American etc, but the one that interests me is Top Debutant.  Now, the only problem with this market is, you’ve no course form to go on! Keegan Bradley is deservingly a short priced favourite (11/8) in this market as he is of course a major winner and probably the best young talent in American golf. But at that price he isn’t for me. I think everyone had to be impressed with the way Kyle Stanley won his first PGA tour event. He of course blew up the week before, throwing away a mammoth lead going into the final day. He has been a little quiet of late but in what looks like a 4 way match up for the debutant's title between Bradley, Webb Simpson, Sang-Moon Bae and Stanley I think 7/1 is very generous and will take a nibble at that.

I mentioned the bet I did regarding Tiger, Rory and the final round pairing earlier and I am sure there’ll be a few interested parties to the ‘Forecast Market.’ Yes, you read that right; in a 96 runner field the bookies have invited you to predict the 1-2. The bookies are obviously trying to line their pockets by using the media hype round Tiger and Rory and are offering 22/1 and 25/1 for the forecast. It sounds crazy and might even be called a ‘mug’ bet but let’s be honest would anyone be surprised?

My selections:

Luke Donald @ 16/1 each way with Bet365

Justin Rose @33/1 each way with BetVictor

Angel Cabrera @ 5/2 Top 20 with Stan James & 13/2 Top 10 with BetVictor

Martin Laird @ 4/1 Top 20 & 9/1 Top 10 with Stan James

Fred Couples @ 10/3 Top 20 with Will Hill

Adam Scott @ 33/1 with Paddy Power  ANTEPOST Selection