2012 Open Championship at Royal Lytham and St Anne’s
This week Royal Lytham and St Anne’s’ hosts the 141st Open Championship. The famous championship has been played here ten times previously and there are some illustrious winners; Seve won twice (’79, ’88), Player won in ’74 and Bobby Jones won in 1926. The most recent victor was David Duval in 2001 when he joined a long list of players to win a major and then disappear (last spotted in a Burger King in April 2004), I joke! The course has been lengthened since then with the Par 70 course now measuring 7.118 yards.
The Claret Jug at Royal Lytham and St Anne's
I’m no Michael Fish but I don’t think the weather is going to be as bad as first forecast. However if the weather is bad I am sure one fella that will feel at home is British Amateur Champion Alan Dunbar. Alan skipped the North of Ireland Championship last week to prepare for his first appearance at a major championship. I am sure he will get plenty of advice from big Darren and I hope he goes out and enjoys himself; he’s drawn in a nice group with Adam Scott and Matt (Kuuuuuuccchh) Kuchar.
When looking through the list of previous Open Champions there is a notable trend, 10 of the last 15 champions had already picked up at least one tour victory that season before teeing it up in their respective Open wins. The five that didn’t were – Stewart Cink (2009), Padraig Harrington (2008), Ben Curtis (2003) and David Duval in (2001).
It’s harder than ever to pick the winner of a major with 15 different winners of the last 15 majors, the strength in depth of both the PGA Tour and European Tours is phenomenal. With Tiger Woods not dominating the majors anymore (hasn’t won any since US Open ’08) the bookies have finally started to give the punters some sort of price on him, he’s a general 9/1 this week (10s with Ladbrokes). With regards Tigers chances this week I think the weather over the last few weeks will hinder his game more than the weather in the next few days. Confused? Well going by reports and Tiger’s own comments the course is wet, the rough is very lush and it will penalise poor accuracy from the tee. Although I think Tiger’s driving has improved no end this year I wouldn’t of thought twice about putting my hard earned cash (I’m a Civil Servant) *waits for the laughing to stop* on a Tiger win if the course was firm and bouncy. No one can forget how he won at Hoylake, stinger shots from the tee with the 3 wood, plenty of crushed iron shots for position, it was just phenomenal course management. But this week with the soft course he can’t afford to lose out on distance off the tee, which means the driver will be on display and if he doesn’t have control of it I don’t think he’ll be winning his 15th major.
I usually try and keep my picks to two or three on my blog each week, but as it’s a major and I don’t have any ante-post bets I have had five goes to try and come out with the winner come Sunday. I have stuck with the trend that I think the winner on Sunday will have lifted silverware at some stage already this season.
My first pick this week is Dustin Johnson. Big DJ has appeared a few times this year on my blog and of course returned a 22/1 winner for me when winning the St Jude Classic. It has been an injury-plagued season for Johnson with a back injury that kept him out of action for nearly three months. Before his injury in March he had already racked up three Top 10’s so with limited starts he’s had quite a decent season thus far and surely he’ll add a major to his wins sooner rather than later. He finished T-2 last year at Royal St Georges’s, his shank on the 14th (I think) was costly, big Darren Clarke went on to get the W. DJ’s driving accuracy stat isn’t exactly spectacular (worse than Tiger’s) but he only hit 50% of the fairways last year and nearly got it done. The thing to remember when looking at stats is that whether you miss the fairway by 2 yards or 22 yards it still only goes down as a one missed fairway! I think at the prices Dustin Johnson is good value and offers a real each way opportunity.
Big bad Dustin Johnson
My second selection this week is Ben Curtis. He was on the same list as David Duval, Todd Hamilton, Shaun Micheel et al after his major win at Royal St George’s in 2003, he disappeared. He re-surfaced in 2006 and won a couple of tourneys on the PGA Tour (Booz Allen Classic, ’84 Lumber Classic), but it was back to the doldrums after that. However he’s back with a bang this year. He won the Valero Texas Open and has backed it up with two other Top 5 finishes, which included a T-2 at the Players Championship. His stats support his renaissance; he’s 3rd in Driving Accuracy, 6th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 3rd in Strokes gained through Putting. He doesn’t hit the ball far (averages just 278 yards from the tee) but it’s easier to play from the fairways than it is from the car park, well unless your name is Seve!
Ben Curtis kissing the Claret Jug in 2003
My third selection is Rickie Fowler. Fowler has been the one fella that I was always going to back. However unlike others I didn’t get on ante-post but still think there’s value there. Fowler finally got his maiden title at the Wells Fargo this year (in a play off) and to say it was overdue was an understatement. It was clear he just needed to get the monkey off his back; he backed that win up with a T-2nd the very next week at Sawgrass (The Players). I think Fowler will be a popular choice with the punters this week and for those who remember his 68 on the Saturday last year (finished 5th) in pretty nasty conditions they will be confident if the poor weather does arrive he will be able to cope a lot better than the Americans usually do. The only negative I have with Fowler is his putting but the positives out way that.
Rickie Fowler in his Sunday orange
My fourth selection is Rafael Cabrera-Bello. RCB like the others has already picked up a victory this year, his came at the Dubai Desert Classic in February where he beat a strong field, which included Tiger Woods. Since then he has picked up a few Top 3 finishes, the latest being a Runner up finish at Royal Portrush (Irish Open). Like Fowler ball striking is his strength and links golf courses are where he can illustrate that best. He drives the ball well and hits a load of GIR; he averages nearly 75% this year on the European Tour. He had a poor Sunday at the Scottish Open last week (shot 78) so let’s hope he got rid of most of his poor shots then!
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
My fifth and final selection is another past champion, Paul Lawrie. Since winning the Open at Carnoustie in ’99 he doesn’t have a great Open record, his best finish was actually here in 2001 when 42nd. He won the Qatar Masters in February and has also had five other Top 10 finishes this year. Lawrie chose not to play in the US Open at Olympic Club to stay in Europe and concentrate on Ryder Cup qualification. Lawrie has all the tools to win another Open Championship and show that his first wasn’t a fluke (Van de Velde went deep burn diving). The one negative I have with Lawrie these days is that he seems to get very frustrated very easily and often drops the head when things aren’t going right, he displayed this by storming off after his defeat at the Volvo and refusing interviews, he subsequently apologised. I don’t suspect that everyone believes in omens but if you do…. Lawrie picked up a victory in the ’99 season prior to the Open; it came in the Qatar Masters.
Paul Lawrie with the Claret Jug in 1999
My selections are:
Dustin Johnson 50/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)
Ben Curtis 100/1 each way with BetVictor (6 places)
Rickie Fowler 40/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello 125/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)
Paul Lawrie 70/1 each way with Stan James (7 places)
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