Tiger to get W at Jack's Tourney

The Memorial Tournament @ Muirfield Village


This week on the PGA Tour it's the turn of another legend to host his own tournament, Jack Nicklaus. This tourney always attracts a strong field and this week looks to be no different, with Donald, McIlroy, Woods et al returning. It will also be Dustin Johnson's first tourney back since his injury, which is good to see!


When writing my post for the Players Championship I said that the 20/1 about Tiger Woods was crazy and I couldn't even back him with monopoly money! Well he's shorter at 16/1 this week but the difference being he's won here four times and loves Muirfield Village! Although it's been well documented by the media that his game isn't in good shape and he's not the force he was, he can still play golf! This obsession by the media with the old Tiger is getting boring, he won't dominate the way he used too, let's get that straight, but he's still good enough to win and probably even a couple of majors as well.

Tiger with game face on!

Jim Furyk was a selection a few weeks ago and like the majority of his season he had a solid week without really challenging. But he's a past champion here like Woods and has other form as well including a Runners up finish in '09. You will find this week that scrambling plays a big part, it's not always about the birdies, and although iron play is Furyk's strength he can still scramble with the best of them.


My final selection this week is Rickie Fowler. After finally getting the monkey of his back a few weeks ago taking down Rory McIlroy in the process, many pundits and journos feel Rickie will kick on and get another win which would cement his place in the Ryder Cup team. A good approach game is key and Fowlers iron play is top notch at the moment and he can mix it with any of the top players now with his new found confidence; big player!


My selections are:

Tiger Woods 16/1 each way with Coral
Jim Furyk 28/1 each way with BetFred
Rickie Fowler 18/1 each way with Paddy Power (six places)

Luuuuuuke is a worthy favourite at Wentworth

BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth

This week Wentworth hosts the European Tours flagship event and has attracted a very strong field. With weather peaking at 25 degrees there is sure to be some low numbers this year. Last year six under won but you may need double that to get the W this week.

I think Luke Donald is a real worthy favourite and wouldn’t be scared to take some of the skinny odds available. Donald is defending champion and has just received three awards at the annual European Tour Award night, so confidence will be high. With the top three in the World Rankings all here this week there will be plenty of ranking points available and all the media coverage is sure to concentrate on that.

This weeks favourite and defending champion

My each way alternative, to Donald, is Francesco Molinari. Molinari is just off the back of a victory in the Spanish Open and has notched up eight Top 20 finishes in his nine starts on the European Tour this season. He has hit just over 80% of GIR this year which is really impressive and is the key to his game really, when he holes putts he contends, tee to green he is flawless most weeks. Although Molinari has no great course form it doesn’t bother me too much, the course has been changed more times than enough in recent years and every year gets criticism of some description. The 12^th hole has been changed from a Par 4 to a Par 5 which would be an advantage to both selections as they are not the longest of hitters!

My Selections:

Luke Donald @ 8/1 Outright with Paddy Power

Francesco Molinari @ 33/1 each way with Paddy Power

The Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

Hunter Mahan is just off the back of a missed cut at the Players, which was a blip in what has been a very consistent season thus far. Colonial is a course that demands accuracy from the tee and accurate iron shots to small greens, which should suit Mahan. He is ranked 7^th in ‘Driving Accuracy’ and 5^th in ‘Greens in Regulation.’ Mahan has already had two W’s this season and a couple of other Top 15 finishes and is sure to pick up another victory soon, why not this week? The course is tailor made for his game.

Bo Van Pelt has had a couple of smart finishes at Colonial of late. He was 3^rd last year after closing with a round of 65 and finished 10^th in 2010. Van Pelt also features highly in the driving stats (6^th in Total Driving) and although his GIR stat isn’t that impressive (76^th on tour) he does get it done with the putter, ranked 2^nd in the ‘Strokes gained through putting’ stat.

Harris English hasn’t played Colonial before and that would usually worry me when deciding my picks. However English’s confidence will be sky high after Monday qualifying for the Open Championship at Gleneagles (no not that one) County Club which is nearby (so I believe), so I assume he’s fitted in a couple of practise rounds and hopefully likes what he sees! English shot rounds of 60 and 63 in the two round qualifier so his game is clearly where he wants it to be, hopefully good enough for a Top 10 finish.

My Selections:

Hunter Mahan @ 25/1 each way with Bet365

Bo Van Belt @ 25/1 each way with Paddy Power

Harris English @ 7/1 Top Ten Finish with Paddy Power

The Aussie boys to do the biz in Texas!

Byron Nelson Championship on the PGA Tour

This week’s action comes from TPC Four Seasons, no not the hotel, the golf course. It’s a tree lined course and being in Texas there’s sure to be a stiff breeze about over the weekend. There are a few notable holes to look out for, no more so than the 524 yard Par 4 3^rd hole, beast!

My first selection this week is my old buddy Adam Scott. As much as he is not having the year I expected or wanted him to have he’s posted a few good scores and hopefully will get a win soon and kick on for the rest of the season.  Scott has had three Top 15 finishes in his last three starts on the PGA Tour which includes an 8^th at the Masters (ante post pick) and 15^th at the Players last week. Stats wise he is back to the Scott of two years ago, plenty of GIR (ranked 5^th on tour) but not enough putts holed (Ranked 140^th in strokes gained through putting). Last year he appeared to have his putting woes sorted with the broom handled putter, hence my prediction in January for a good year for the Aussie, but the putts have dried up again, either that or I put the scud on him, probably the latter.

Adam Scott eyeing down an approach shot

My second selection is another Aussie, Jason Day. A bit like Scott he isn’t setting the tour alight this year but has the talent to put a missed cut behind him from last week at the Players and post a few good numbers at a course he clearly loves. TPC Sawgrass is a course that just doesn’t suit some player’s eye, like McIlroy it doesn’t seem to suit Days. So I am putting a line through last week and concentrating more on the T-9 at the Wells Fargo Championship the week before. With only two appearances at the Byron Nelson; he was 5^th last year and won the tourney in 2010. When looking at his stats and seeing that he is ranked 176^th in Driving Accuracy this season it doesn’t exactly fill with me confidence when the course is predominantly tree lined but let’s hope he gets the good vibes on the go at TPC Four Seasons and gets back to the form of last year which saw him contending in the majors.

Another selection this week stateside will be for the old Texas Master Justin Leonard to post a Top 20 finish. He’s clearly not the force he once was, but he can still throw in a couple of low rounds, especially around this track. He jointly holds the course record with a 61 and has a few other low 60’s to his name down the years. I couldn’t possibly put any money on him to win the tourney outright as he has been having a tough year, to say the least. However when you consider some of the numbers he can shoot round here the 125/1 on offer for him to be First Round Leader is worth a quid of anyone’s money.

 

My Selections:

Adam Scott @ 14/1 each way with Ladbrokes

Jason Day @ 20/1 each way with Paddy Power

Justin Leonard @ 125/1 First Round Leader with BetFred

Justin Leonard @ 5/1 Top 20 finish with Paddy Power

Volvo World Match Play Championship on the European Tour

With the Match Play being in Spain it gives potential Ryder Cup-er’s a chance to show the gaffer (Jose Maria Olazabel) what they can offer his team for September at Medinah. I think sticking to the market principals is the logical way to find the winner here this week.

This tourney is like no other in the way the format of the match play works. It’s a round robin with eight groups of three players who will play against each other on Thursday and Friday. The Top 2 from the three will then progress to the last 16 on Saturday and then the quarters. Both the Semi’s and the Final are played on Sunday.

My first selection is the defending champ Ian Poulter. I also had him tipped up last week and didn’t really want to be tipping the same golfer two weeks in a row but I genuinely feel he has a great chance to defend the title successfully for the first time since Ernie Els completed a hatrick in 2004. Poults got off to a great start for me last week when leading after the first round but he then threw in a couple of poor rounds to finish down the field. He isn’t quiet when it comes to his chances and seems very bullish and excited to play some match play in among a touch run of stroke play events.

My second selection is Graeme Mc Dowell. GMAC is a different player when it comes to match play and like Poults will be buzzing to tee it up on Thursday. He hasn’t really got going this year and this could be the sort of tourney to get his season up and running with plenty of Ryder Cup points on offer.

Like any Match Play there are sure to be a few upsets but I’d be surprised if one of the outsiders won this week. The event is sure to be dominated by the players that will more than likely represent Europe in the Ryder Cup in September.

My Selections:

Ian Poulter @ 10/1 Outright with BetFred

Graeme McDowell @ 14/1 Outright with SkyBet

Billyless Westy to get the W at Sawgrass

The Players Championship @ TPC Sawgrass

This week we have by far my favourite tourney outside the majors, the Player’s Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The Player’s Championship is not a normal PGA Tour tourney, it carries more prestige than most, actually all, apart from the majors, and this is where the debate begins!

Should there be a fifth major? Or will changing tradition ruin the value of the other four?! It’s a debate that will go on and on. If you’re watching the golf on Sky this week, expect this debate to take centre stage for the majority of the four days. Personally I don’t think it should be a major and I also think regardless of what we think or however long the pundits debate the topic, it never will! The problem is that some players in the last couple of years have chosen to skip it, for whatever reason, be it for rest or that they would rather prepare differently for the US Open in June.

The Player’s Championship was traditionally held in March but since 2007 has been shuffled (like many other tournaments) to a different time of the year. There a few reasons for this, one being that the players themselves tend to play in stretches so by positioning it in May it helped out tourneys in New Orleans and the Wells Fargo attract a few bigger names. Last year Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood were the major absentees, this year we have the newly crowned Masters Champ and fans favourite Bubba Watson. Now it should be pointed out that Bubba is skipping the tourney for family reasons. Bubba and wife Angie adopted a baby boy (named him Caleb) the week before the Masters and he has stated that he wishes to spend some quality time before a busy summer. Rors and Westy had no such excuse! Will Bruce and the boys (Sky Pundits) acknowledge the difference...probably not!

Sawgrass.... If there was ever a course that sets up for drama on a Sunday evening, this is it! In particular the infamous 17^th hole, with its island green, it really is a true test of nerve. I always wondered why Pampers don’t pay Tim Finchem and the boys a few quid to get some advertising boards popped up round the tee, it’s a PR dream! I read a stat today which sums up the hole, you have to go back to 1987 to find the last player who has birdied the 17^th all four days, the player in question was Paul Azinger.

The signature 17th hole @ TPC Sawgrass

Like TPC Louisiana, Sawgrass was designed by Pete Dye, same grass, the works, so it will do us no harm to look at the players that finished near the top of the leaderboard in New Orleans. The Zurich Classic was won by Jason Dufner and the Top 10 (and ties) comprised of Donald, Els, DeLaet, Palmer, Stricker, Duke, Tringale, Rollins, Fowler, Mathis and Rose. Out of those 12 names, here’s how they did at Sawgrass last year. Three finished inside the top 15 (Donald, Dufner and Stricker), four didn’t play, and one finished in 45^th and the other four missed the cut. As four didn’t play it means that nearly half of the remaining eight finished inside the Top 15, so there’s maybe a pointer there after all. Rickie Fowler is one of the four who missed the cut last year but he got his first PGA Tour win last week.

When I look through the previous winners at Sawgrass it’s not easy to find a trend. A small one I suppose would be out of the last five winners, only two (KJ Choi and Phil Mickelson) teed it up in May before Sawgrass, both finished T-3 in their respective tourneys  and none of the other three missed the cut on their last appearance. So that trend will be pleasing for Donald (3^rd in New Orleans) and Westwood (T-5 Wells-Fargo) fans and won’t give much encouragement to Tiger fans.

Although it’s only Monday (it is as I write this) all the major book makers are out to get the Tiger fans. Paddy Power have went 20/1 for a Tiger win and have sent a few tweets around to make sure everyone knows of this “massive” price. Can I just say, I’m a massive Tiger fan (second favourite golfer after Sergio) but I couldn’t back the man with monopoly money this week, he had to resort to irons off some of the tees last week and still didn’t make the cut for god’s sake!

My first selection this week is going to be Lee Westwood. Westy is off the back of a 66 last Sunday which got him a 5^th place finish in the Wells Fargo Championship. It was great to see as I thought last week could have been a struggle with the loss of Billy to injury! Yep, caddy Billy Foster regularly touted as the best in the business and one of the many reasons for Westy’s return to form in the last few years injured himself in a charity football game. Not exactly the thing that Westwood wanted to hear going into the busy summer time on tour. But Westy drafted in Cayce Kerr, who is Freddie Couples caddy. It was obviously a slow burner but by Sunday it all fell into place. As stated above Westwood missed last year, and has only teed it up nine times at the stadium course, resulting in three Top 10s. He’s had four Top 5 finishes on the PGA Tour this season including a T-3 at the Masters. Westy also had a win in Indonesia a couple of weeks ago, granted it was a weak tournament, but wins breed confidence and confidence is something you need this week at Sawgrass.

My second selection is Sergio Garcia. Sergio won this event in 2008 and that wasn’t a fluke, he was runner up in 2007. Garcia is hard to rely on when it comes to having a bet on him, but he does enjoy it here, he hasn’t missed a cut since ’03 and I fancy him to go well this week. Sergio hasn’t challenged much in America this year, six appearances, and six cuts made but only notching up the one Top 10. Ironically his putting has improved no end, ranked 13^th in Strokes gained through putting this year with his reliable accuracy been more at fault this year. That said he is still ranked in the Top 10 in Total Driving this year.  Hopefully when he sets his eyes on the 17^th green memories of his win in 2008 will come flooding back, especially that iron shot he hit to win it!

My third and final selection is Ian Poulter. Poults’ is a man in form and a man that oozes confidence. The 90/1 offered by BET365 won’t last. He has been a runner up here (’09) and is just off the back of a 3^rd place finish at Arnie’s tourney and a 7^th place finish at the Masters. A lot of people don’t like backing Poulter because they think he’s “all show” and is more interested in his fashion range but don’t be fooled he maybe doesn’t have the talent of a Woods or McIlroy but what he does have is a lot of fight and can grind like the best of them. This will be a grinding week, for everyone!

My Selections:

Lee Westwood @ 16/1 each way with Coral

Sergio Garcia @ 45/1 each way with Bet365

Ian Poulter @ 90/1 each way with Bet365

Lefty to lead Rors and Tiger on a merry dance!

The PGA Tour

Wells Fargo Championship @ Quail Hollow

Phil Mickelson, as usual, will be the fans favourite this week and he is turning up at a tournament he clearly loves. His form figures for his last eight starts here are T5-T7-35-3-12-5-2-T9, one word, impressive! His tourney form is obviously a massive plus, but his form this year isn’t too shabby either. Mickelson last teed it up at Augusta where he finished 3^rd and has had a win (Pebble Beach) and two other Top 5’s this year. I still think his putting display on the final day at Pebble Beach was the best on show anywhere this year on a Sunday. Phil’s putting has always been the thing that influences his week, sure he drives the ball all over the place at times but with his recovery game you don’t tend to worry too much! His putting is a worry at times, he tends to miss a few short putts at the wrong times and that’s not something you can do when you are playing in a strong field, but this year Mickelson is ranked 3^rd in strokes gained through putting and that is the key to his good play so far this year. With the media chasing after Rory and Tiger all week, Phil will want to make sure that everyone will be chasing him on the back nine on Sunday, especially Tiger.

Phil Mickelson looking as relaxed as usual

Zach Johnson is coming off a 2^nd place at the Heritage last time out and I fancy him to go well again this week. Sixth last year was his best finish at this event and hopefully with the progressive year he is having he can better that come Sunday.  Zach is one of these players who consistently plays well without really contending for many titles, he’s made 10 cuts out of 10 starts this year, returning four Top 20 finishes as a result. Johnson is one of the shortest hitters on tour, but for what he lacks in distances he makes up for in accuracy (6^th straightest on tour). The ranking for ‘Birdies or better on Par 5’s’ is a ranking you would assume is dominated by big hitters; Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, JB Holmes etc etc, and why wouldn’t you, length usually plays a big part. But Zach Johnson is actually ranked 8^th in this performance stat, and there’s one main reason, his wedges! From 100 yards in, he is as good as it gets. He best displayed this when he infamously laid up at every Par 5 at Augusta the year he won his Masters title. There’s a little lesson there for all you aspiring golfers, it’s not all slap, bang wallop, sometimes it’s all about scrambling when out of position, another thing that Zach does well (ranked 9^th). Zach seems to rely a lot on his scrambling at times because unfortunately his iron play isn’t as accurate as his driving, ranked 101^st in GIR (Green in Regulation). Hopefully Johnson can hit a few more greens this week and take the pressure off his short game, if he does; he could get the ‘W’ on Sunday.

Lucas Glover is not having the finest of seasons so far and will almost certainly not win this week but as the old saying goes “horses for courses.” He is the defending champion this week and on top of that victory last year he was runner up in 2009. He has also had top 10 finishes in the form of a T-4^TH finish in ’06 and a T-10^th in ‘04. In the off chance he turns up this week and gets back into his comfort zone the 9/1 on offer for a Top 10 finish could be tasty.

My Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ 11/1 Outright with Bet365

Zach Johnson @ 33/1 each way with Sky Bet

Lucas Glover @ 9/1 Top 10 finish with Paddy Power

The European Tour

Open de Espana @ Real Club de golf de Sevilla

This week in Spain is sure to be emotional. It’s’ Seve’s anniversary. Seve was everything that was great about Spanish golf and the natives will be looking to put on a real show this week and hopefully get a Spanish winner.

In the hope that there is a Spanish winner I am siding with  Rafael Cabrera-Bello. My selection is someone who I have been keeping a close eye on since his triumph in Dubai at the start of the season. I have previously tipped him up on the blog; at the Open de Andalucía where he didn’t performance as I had hoped (finished 47^th) but I am going to stick with him this week. He has tourney form (11^th last year and T6 in ’09) but not course form as they have moved the tournament. It’s being played at the ‘Real Club de golf de Sevilla’ where they also played in 2010 and 2008. Every time I read up on this guy I like him more (swear I’m straight). The most recent interesting stat is that he won his national championship every year from Under 7 to Under 18 level, *protégé! Since my blog post about him in March he has notched up a 3^rd place finish in Malaysia so I haven’t completely put the kiss of death on him! As stated at the start of this paragraph I do think a Spanish player will win this week and I am hoping I have sided with the right one!

On the off chance (giggles) that I am wrong and the winner isn’t Spanish I am hoping that they come from another hot European country...Scotland! Paul Lawrie has been good to me this year (40/1 winner in Qatar) and has contributed to my retirement fund but I think he could make me a few more dollaaa! On the back of that win Lawrie broke into the Top 50 in the world again and subsequently got to Augusta (finished 24^th) and I think he will win again this year at some point. As I am not Mystic Meg I can’t tell you exactly when but I will have an educated guess at this week! Unlike my other selection Lawrie has both course form and tourney form, the course form coming when he finished in a T-6 in 2010 and adding his 5^th place finish last year that tells me he likes Spain in May!  

My Selections:

Rafael Cabrera-Bello 50/1 each way with Sporting Bet (5 places)

Paul Lawrie 28/1 each way (General) (5 places)