The US
Open at Chambers Bay
Quite looking forward to this year’s US Open as it's a bit
of an unknown quantity. The Masters didn't turn out to be a great betting event
for me this year and I haven't struck had many (possibly any) bets since - so
the powder is dry and my palms itchy!
Chambers
Bay measures 7,742 yards
and is a Par 70. The course is less than ten years old and constructed over an
abandoned mining site. Robert Trent Jones Jr. was tasked with building a course
that could host an US Open. The course includes fescue turf throughout, making
this the first US Open to be played on all-fescue. The USGA awarded the course
the 2010 U.S. Amateur and 2015 US Open. Peter Uihlein won the 2010 US
Amateur and shortly after, it made some changes in prep for this year’s US
Open. One quirky thing that the USGA have decided to do, is alternate the par
on the 1st and 18th, from Par 4 to Par 5 - keeping it at Par 70 each day.
Obviously with very little/no course form to go by, it was a
bit of a reconnaissance mission to find how the course will play next week.
Like most , I've relied heavily on the views of players than played in that US
Amateur and the lucky handful of journos I follow on Twitter, that have
actually played the course. Most of the feedback seemed to revolve around the
accessibility of the fairways. U.S Open venues tend to be quite tight fairways,
but not this week; the 13th is over a hundred yards wide! Brooks Koepka (who
played in the US Am) said it will suit the bombers with less importance on
accuracy to the fairway and more emphasis on finding the correct part of the
green. U.S Open's tend to be won and lost on the greens, and this year’s
renewal won't be any different. The greens themselves are massive with large
slopes and banks around them, leaving proximity to the hole the key this week;
it's all about where you leave it - you could find the green and still have a
60 footer, with 30 feet of burrow.
Although the course it's self is situated on the coast, they
don't expect wind to be the factor that it would be at an Open Championship,
but reports say it can range to a two/three club wind, if it does get up - this
is probably good news for McIlroy backers. The US Open has only yielded three
American born winners from the last eleven tourneys, but with the links effect
(I had to tell myself not to write Lynx haha) they have a strong hand with
Speith, DJ and Fowler all very able. Speith played the US Amateur at Chambers
Bay and with reports that his caddy used to also be bagman there, he's sure to
be a popular choice with punters this week - though all a tad too short for me.
Here's who I like:
Justin Rose finished in a tie for 12th last year in his
US Open defence and with a decent start run of results (save the missed cut at
the Players) he will be going in this week full of confidence. He really should
have got the win at Memorial, but didn't really help himself on the final day.
That said, he showed again when it comes to contending, when not quite firing,
he's one of the best about at grinding. He understands the importance of
patience and that will be key this week. He won in New
Orleans this year after finishing behind Speith at Augusta. As I said earlier, proximity to the
hole will be key and when on song Rose's iron play is sublime. The thing with
Rose tends to be his inconsistency with the putter, when it's hot he contends,
when it’s cold it puts more pressure on his approach play. But he is a past
champ
Justin Rose at 20/1 with Paddy Power (2 pt win)
Louis Oosthuizen is a bit of a hard guy to get right.
He's had quite a few injuries (seemingly) with a lot of withdrawals on US soil (six I
think). But since his Open Championship win he has had some decent finishes in
some of the bigger events, with a runner up finish at the Masters. All in all,
you'd have to say when he's fit, he can contend, especially at links venues. I
suppose it's easy to just look for links form when there isn't much course form
to go on, but although he's had no wins on US soil there's plenty of substance
to a few of his finishes. With some liking aspects of Chambers
Bay to St Andrews,
Louis won his major there by seven strokes and had a 62 in the Dunhill Links
one year. His current form isn't great, but he's doesn't appear to be a
consistent type and he was no form at all before his Open win. His group is
likely to take quite a crowd on the first couple of days (drawn with Tiger and
Fowler) but I think if the course reports ring true he will quite like the set
up and hopefully bring some of his Dunhill Links form to the table.
Louis Oosthuizen at 100/1 with SkyBet 6 places (1 pt
each way)
Branden Grace is another quality links player who will be
high up on many people’s 'outsiders' list this week. Like his countryman
Oosthuizen, he has strong form on the links (former Dunhill Links winner), but
hasn't made the same impression in the majors. Grace is a prolific winner (six
on European Tour - two of which were this season) but critics will say he wins
the same sort of events, at the same time of the year. But, he's still
relatively young (27) and he's only going to go one way. He hasn't played as
much golf in the US
as Louis, but after a decent showing in the WGC Match Play, he finished T-7th
at the Heritage. He's not long off the tee by any means but can scramble with
the best of them and at treble figure prices on a course layout like this, I
want him onside.
Branden Grace at 150/1 with Will Hill 6 places (1 pt each
way)
I scratched my head over this one for a while, but at the
end of it all, couldn't get away from the price. Ernie Els is a two time U.S
Open champ, he's a two time Open Championship winner and he's 200/1. His form
this year is far from good, but at this time of his career, consistency is
never going to be there. He still managed a Top 10 in the US Open in 2012
before his Open win, a T-4th in 2013 and a Top 10 in the USPGA last year; so
perfectly able to compete. People will look back and say he's only won his
fourth major because Adam Scott collapsed, but there were plenty that could of
benefited and it was his 68 that did the trick. He's not the golfer he was, but
like many other past champions (Tom Watson at the Open is a perfect example),
he will have a lot of fond memories around similar set ups and it wouldn't
surprise me at all if he found something this week.
Ernie Els at 200/1 with Paddy Power 6 places (1 pt each way)
Last pick for me and the biggest price of the lot - Marc
Warren. I've really stuck to the idea that the good links players will come out
on top this week, so it's either going to be a boom or bust. Warren is another competent links player,
with strong finishes in the Scottish Open in recent years. He is a three time
European Tour winner and had a great weekend at the USPGA last year. Warren knows than he needs to now start competing in
majors/WGCs if he wants to push on up the World Rankings and Chambers Bay
could be a good place to start.
Marc Warren 300/1 with BetVictor 6 places (1 pt each way)
Be lucky!
