Charl is set for major number two, at Valhalla

The USPGA Championship at Valhalla

I think it's safe to say that if McIlroy turns up with the same game he's had on his last two starts, we may as well just fast-track to the Ryder Cup. I can't think of any reason to put someone off backing Rory this week. I won't be backing him myself, because of the price, but that's just *me.

*The same person who backed a one legged Tiger in the '08 US Open at 5/2. Haha!

Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville is the host for this years (the 96th) USPGA Championship. The course itself can be extended to 7,458 yards and is a Par 71. The Americans would probably describe the front nine as more links golf and the back nine as park land. Since the Ryder Cup was played in 2008, the Senior PGA was held there and after the tournament the greens were upgraded to a more heat-tolerant strain of Bentgrass (in layman's terms to stop them burning so easily).
I think if you were to look for players to back, the obvious trend would be their last start, the last 7 winners have been in the Top 25 (two had Top 5's) the week before. The other thing to look for is their record on Jack Nicklaus' courses. Nicklaus course's tend to be long and forgiving off the tee, with the emphasis on approach shots to the greens. Reports coming from the states have stated that the rough is sparse enough in the landing areas, so length is desirable but not compulsory and accuracy the same.

So although I think McIlroy will be hard beat, I do have three players to take him on with.

Charl Schwartzel has been streaky at best this year, but does fill the recent trend of USPGA winners with his T-4th finish last week at Firestone. Schwartzel's iron play hasn't been at it's best this year (ranks outside the Top 100 in Greens in Regulation) but his scrambling is pretty good (Top 25) and if your not hitting greens in Valhalla, you need to be pretty good around the greens. Although his iron play hasn't been good, his long irons have been tasty enough, ranking in the Top 10 for approaches over 200 yards; so for those strong Par 4's and the reachable Par 5, that's a nice stat to read. He also had a Top 10 at the Memorial the past two years so he clearly plays Nicklaus courses pretty well.

Jason Day is seemingly injured every other week, but reports suggest that he's over the worst of it, and although a withdrawal last week due dizziness, he's now too big not to back each way this week (six places). Day had a great start to the season where he won the WGC Matchplay, which silenced the critics (temporally) who said he didn't win enough for a guy who always seemed to be in contention in the majors. But he seemed in good spirits yesterday when leading the long drive contest at Valhalla with a 338 yards (?). He's been consistent without any great finishes at Muirfield Village (Nicklaus track) but his major record is ridiculously good for a non-winner and I've also felt outside of Augusta this would be his best chance.

My third pick is Victor Dubuisson. I've had this man in my mind for Valhalla for a while now, and backed him before the Bridgestone last week, on the exchanges, in the hope of a good finish coming into this week. He was ok, but finished in the middle of the pack. He showed this year at the Match Play that he can perform on the big stage and with USPGA being the most common win for rookie major winners, I've pulled the trigger. Victor is just an all round solid player, decent driver of the ball and has hit around 70% greens in regulation this year. I've also noticed that his short game has got a lot better and with the run off areas at Valhalla, he'll need it to be.

For a saver bet this week I've went with the notion that if McIlroy wins, he will probably lead after the first round. He's led regularly after the first round this year and roughly 10% of career PGA Tour events, he's led on the Thursday evening. So we would normally be looking for around 10/1 for FRL, but on current form I think the 15/2 on offer from Paddy Power is very fair.


My selections:

Charl Schwartzel each way @ 35/1 with Stan James (2 pts each way)
Jason Day each way with @ 70/1 with Stan James (1.5 points each way)
Victor Dubuisson each way @ 100/1 with Stan James (1 pt each way)
Rory McIlroy - First Round Leader @ 15/2 with Paddy Power (2 point win)