The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool (Hoylake)
These days there are more sightings of Santa Claus than there is of my blog, but we are going for three out of three in the Majors this year.
Royal Liverpool hasn't changed much since Tiger plotted his way around in 2006, with the course only lengthened by 80 odd yards, a couple of bunkers moved and a few run off areas around the greens altered. But what will be noticeable is how lush the course is, compared to the bouncy, burnt grass in '06. I read an interesting stat somewhere (possibly an article) that Hoylake is the only course on the Open rota that finishes with a Par 5, and only one of five that hosted a (any) major in the last 20 years that ended with a par 5 (Hoylake, Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Valhalla and Baltusrol. Interesting (or not) that Tiger won four of them (but that's when he was still winning majors!).
Of the players at the top of the market, I found it easier to get away some more than others. I don't think I'll ever back McIlroy in an Open, he gets nervous when there's a hair dryer in the vicinity, never mind gusts coming off the Irish Sea. Rose has a terrible record on the links, granted a nice win last week, but going for three wins in a row is a massive mental effort (although he went on record as saying he didn't feel the last two wins took anything out of him). Scott was tougher to get away from, but price and current form managed to pursuant me to avoid. Mickelson is having a poor season, results-wise, but has shown glimpses and wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts up a strong defence. Kaymer is too short after his US Open (that'a boy) win, although his links form (Alfred Dunhill) had me massively debating it and Tiger, well he has a lot to prove, probably just too much to make him a betting proposition but I'd love to see him put on a show. On to who I do like this week:
Sergio Garcia - YES I AM BETTING WITH MY HEAD AND NOT MY HEART, maybe a bit of both, but not without reason. He had a share of 5th in 2006, in what was a pretty poor season for him going in. Garcia goes to Hoylake in much better form this year with a lot of Top 10s and his win in Qatar at the start of the year. I'm adamant that Sergio's best chance of winning a major is an Open. Some people hate it when I mention his ball-striking ability, but win, lose or draw it rarely changes. I hope it blows a gale and he can plot his way round with his punched tee shots and hopefully keep his much improved putting up. He should of won one already and that won't be lost on him. He seems a different fella these days, now that he's settled down with his girlfriend and his positive messages on social media in recent months haven't gone unnoticed for a guy where confidence is everything (almost everything).
Next up is
Shane Lowry. I'm pretty sure this will be the first time I've decorated the mahogany when it comes to this man. I was always kind of conscious that he could of been a flash in the pan, after his win as an amateur. It's a bit like a handicapper winning a listed race at York, you can't help but feel, the uniqueness of the track favoured him, the usual suspects didn't turn up and someone pancaked it a furlong from home. But as usual, I found myself backing away from the cookie jar; he's turned into a steady pro. The two time tour winner now always gets taken into concentration, when two out of the following three apply - 1. The tournament could be effected by poor weather 2. It's a links course 3. He's priced up at three figures - this week has even surpassed Meatloaf's expectations, as he ticks all three boxes. Of course, although Irish, he doesn't hail from one of our many great links courses (plays out of Carton House), but he can play links as well as the rest of them, and always pleasing to see a good showing in a Dunhill Links when looking for your Open picks (3rd in 2013).
Third up this week is
Jamie Donaldson. A missed cut last week doesn't bother me too much, as he was in form and has previous on a links. Donaldson seems to be a permanent dark horse these days, popping up in someone's preview in all the big events. After finally getting over the line for his maidan tour win in the Irish Open at Royal Portrush, he seemed to appear whenever the big cheques were on the table; a Top 10 in the USPGA the same year (2012), he has had runner up finishes in Turkey, South Africa and the WGC Cadillac Champ and a win in Abu Dhabi, averaging his earnings to around half a million sterling each of those weeks. That keeps the bank manager happy. After a missed cut in the US Open this year, he had a couple of solid Top 5's at the BMW and the Open de France and with his victory at Royal Portrush still in my memory, he makes the list.
*Quack Quack* El Pato is my fourth pick this week.
Angel Cabrera winning two weeks ago was a surprise to some, but he's not exactly a guy you could pin point to a win. He still plays a lot of his golf closer to home, and I must admit I don't follow him outside of the main tours, but nine missed cuts and a victory this season on the PGA Tour tells it's own tale. The trend with Angel, is that there's never a trend. He had no form to speak of going into either of his previous major wins. He finished 7th here in 2006 and does tend to turn up at the bigger events, so I'll back him at the prices to buck a trend and actually continue in good form for more than one week!
At massive prices KJ Choi tempted me at 200/1, with over 300/1 available on the exchanges, but couldn't quite justify it. A saver bet comes in the form of
Matteo Manassero to finish in the Top 20 at 11/2 with Stan James. Mannasero returned to some form last week in Scotland and although doesn't have the Open record I'd expect him to have, he is a Silver Medal winner and of course a British Amateur Champ, so that's good enough for me at the prices.
My Selections:
Sergio Garcia at 28/1 with Coral (2 point win)
Shane Lowry at 125/1 with Stan James (1 point each way) 6 PLACES
Jamie Donaldson at 75/1 with Stan James (1 point each way) 6 PLACES
Angel Cabrera at 75/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way) 7 PLACES
Matteo Manassero at 11/2 for Top 20 finish with Stan James (2 point win)
