The US Open at Pinehurst No2.
This week we are in North Carolina at Pinehurst #2 for the
US Open. I always think that it’s the most emotional major for the players.
Strange comment, maybe, but there’s always tears or some sort of sob story.
Maybe it’s because it always concludes on Father’s Day, not sure. I'd say the neutral golf fan will be cheering on Mickelson this week to complete his 'Grand Slam' - so we can expect more tears if that happens. After picking
Bubba Watson (among others!) for the Masters let’s see if we can make 2 out of
2 in this majors.
Pinehurst No2
The course itself is just after (2011) a restoration by Ben
Crenshaw and his partner to change some of the outlay of the original Donald
Ross design. I listened to an interview by Ben Crenshaw this morning in the
hope of picking up some tips on who it might suit, but came away feeling
nervous for the fella. He seemed very conscious that this course was one of all
time great courses in America and he was almost scared to touch it. What I did
learn was that the course is now a lot more open off the tee, it’s been
lengthened and the rough is now ‘wispy rye grass, sandy and little tufts of
grass’ – he was also quoted as saying ‘it will be pot luck off the fairways,
you can have a recoverable lie, or you could get a poor lie and have to chip
out; it’s all natural though.’ I think it’s safe to say that like any other US
Open (bar Rory’s) pars will be good scores and you’ll have to earn your score.
On to who I like this week…
My Selections
My main pick this week is Rory
McIlroy. McIlroy has had an interesting few weeks, with the breakup of
his engagement to Caroline Wozniacki and a victory at Wentworth. Both of which
most people wouldn’t of seen coming! Wentworth was a course that McIlroy was
never too fond of, vocally saying that it was a course he struggled to find his
game on. So to find a win, to end a week that he was subject of mass media
presence for his off the course issues, it spoke volumes of the talent the man
has. But it should be noted that it wasn’t a win out of the blue; Rors had a
host of Top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour (six in total) going into the European
Tour’s flagship event. One of these Top 10s came at the Memorial Tournament,
where in his opening round he holed 16 out of 16 putts from inside 15 feet.
Ridiculous. If he can somehow find that putting stroke again this week, on
greens which will (usually) be much faster, I fancy him to be bang there on
Sunday. He has all the attributes needed to win here, long off the tee,
relatively straight, great long iron player and a super short game. One of the
reasons I think he plays so well at USGA events is because his high towering
irons are perfect for holding on to quick greens. That said, with the weather
forecast, the course mind not play as bouncy as it can do.
My second pick this week is Webb
Simpson. When you look at Simpson’s performance stats, it’s easy to see
why he already has a US Open in the bag. He won’t be the longest off the tee
this week, but he’ll find plenty of fairways. I’m sure the comments about the
course being a little friendlier to errant drivers wasn't really what he wanted
to hear. Simpson has had a quiet few months since a win in October (start of
the 2014 season), then a run of good finishes right through February. It was a
positive to see him closing with a 66 for third last week and hopefully he
carries that momentum into this week. A stat that will be against Rose this week was
also against Simpson last year – only 4 players have finished in the Top 15 in
their title defence – Simpson was a solid T-32 last year. He is one of the
better scramblers on tour and that’s what will hopefully stand him in good stead
come Sunday. Simpson has been vocal in the past about being a fan of Donald
Ross designs and hopefully the restoration by Crenshaw will fit his eye too.
My third pick this week is Dustin
Johnson. Big DJ is always on the shortlist when ‘length of the tee’ is
mentioned in any course guide. He is the second longest on the PGA Tour this
season, in what has produced a mixed bag of results. After his victory at the
back end of last year I assumed (like last year) he was only going to kick on
from there; but he hasn’t. DJ has had a few Top 10’s (two of which were runner up
finishes), but for a guy that hits so many greens (in regulation) it’s easy to
spot his weakness. Putting isn’t a weakness that you can afford to have any
week on tour, let alone on the slick US Open greens, but his putting is on and off
and will undoubtedly tell the tale of DJ’s week at Pinehurst. He will feel he
has unfinished business in the US Open after he bombed out with an 82 in 2010
when he seemed in control heading into the final day and after closing with a
67 last week, he is another carrying some momentum going forward.
My fourth and final outright pick is Martin Kaymer. The ice cool German is back to form after a long
period of poor golf (by his standards), but because of that, he’s now a tad
short as a betting proposition this week. I don’t know off the top of my head
what price he’d of been ante post for the US Open, pre-Sawgrass, but I can
hazard a guess at 150s-ish. But would you of backed him then? He has had some
form in previous US Opens (Top 20 in ’12, Top 10 in ’10) and when you look at
his performance stats you can see why. He’s a great driver of the golf ball,
long-ish and straight and his iron play is very solid. But when it comes to scrambling,
it doesn’t make great reading. That said, he scrambled well at Sawgrass and
putts well under pressure when in the mix. I think the course will fit Kaymer’s
eye very well and after reading what the players have said regarding the course
changes (more of a links feel) I feel more positive about this.
After reading Ben Coley’s ranting on Twitter about the value
in backing Rory McIlroy to be First Round
Leader in events that should suit him, I told myself I would, when I fancied
him for the win. I don’t have an exact stat of how many times he’s lead after
the first round, but I imagine it must now be well over 10 times in the last
few years. When the First Round Leader market was first offered by bookmakers,
you used to find Tiger Woods was around the same price as he was to win the
event (usually 3/1!). But with McIlroy you tend to get a nice price, and this
week is no different. So I’m on!
Be lucky!
My Selections:
Rory McIlroy to win @ 12/1 with
Stan James – 2 pts win
Webb Simpson @ 50/1 (6 places)
with Will Hill – 1 pt each way
Dustin Johnson @ 40/1 (6 places)
with Stan James – 1 pt each way
Martin Kaymer each way @ 40/1 (6
places) with Stan James – 1 pt each way
Rory McIlroy – First Round Leader
at 20/1 with Stan James – 1 pt win
