WGC Matchplay @ Dove Mountain
Last week was a no show for my picks with Harris English the best placed finish in T-10th without ever contending or giving me much of sweat. I was hopeful of a Bill Haas charge on Sunday but he went backwards and Kevin Na, well wee Kev missed the cut; bless him. The winner in the end was Bubba Watson, who shot 14 under par over the weekend (bogey free) to win by two shots. I think every man and his dog was waiting for a Bubba implosion on Sunday, but it didn't come. Much to the disappointment of my Snapchat friends.
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This week we are off to Dove Mountain for the Matchplay. There's a few absentees this week with Tiger, Rory and Scotty all deciding they don't need a share of the massive purse up for grabs. So although it should be the best 64 players in the world, it's not. The course itself is pretty long, gives plenty of room from the tee and has pretty big greens. Greens in a Regulation stats aren't massive on my criteria this week as hitting the greens won't necessarily give you the upper hand against your opponent. If you end up on the wrong tier you'd *probably rather you were chipping (*probably a slight exaggeration on my part). As a golfer myself, when I play Matchplay I think to myself even when I'm playing bad, just grind, you're playing the man not the course. The pro ranks are no different. Hence why some tipsters don't like tipping in match play because your pick can't play his way into the tournament. Bubba Watson made the cut on the number last week (one under) and shot 64, 64 over the weekend to get the win. You could go round in five under in your opening match, your opponent shoots six under, wins by a cosy half length down the 18th and your home in time to watch the soccaaaaar *said in my best American accent*. Just as easy you could play like a hacker and limp through to the next round where you suddenly find something with your game. So it's not a lottery to pick the winner as some suggest, but you'll need luck along the way. At the end of the day the last eight finalists have been Ryder Cup-ers!
So two picks this week. First up, Sergio Garcia. Before anyone comments, I'm not betting with my heart here. Two wins (granted one in a reduced field) in his last three events makes him a form horse. Anybody who has followed Sergio's career knows the mans issues! One day, flawed genius, another day clinically insane. Both days tend to be based round how is confidence levels are. With Sergio, I
like to strike when the iron's hot. Course form is ok, a semi finalist here in 2010 but I don't think I'm
going to try and convince myself that Sergio has been a great match player. His overall record is a
winning one, nothing spectacular but it's got to be said he's never came into this tournament in this sort of form before and with the confidence that only victories can give you. Also in the past his
putting was a massive problem and in match play if you can't hole five footers you're not going to win. His stroke is massively improved and I'm backing him to put on a show this week in what is a Ryder Cup year. That last point should not be understated this week. This is the first real chance for players to put their hat in the ring for the Ryder Cup; McGinley and Watson will be keeping a close eye. Looking at Sergio bracket, it's not easy, none of them are. His first (hopefully) real challenge will probably come from Poults. Nobody will want to play Poulter, he's an out an out match player, a real grinder, and you'll have to beat him, it won't be handed to you. Rors is obviously in his bracket too, and as much as I think he's going to have a massive year I think that if Sergio can have some forward momentum and confidence going into that match, he definitely has the beating off him in a match which will have a ridiculous amount of natural talent on display.
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Next up is more of an obvious match play pick (I think) but slightly less favourable on current form coming into the tourney. Graeme McDowell, actually that sounds a little formal. GMAC is a sort of player I want in my team if I picking a Ryder Cup team. He grinds like nobody's business and has the game to compete with anyone on his day. Of course it's easy to think back to Celtic Manor and draw that conclusion but he's all business on the course and his attitude is the main reason why I like siding with him in match play. His overall match play record is great, he's had twice as many wins (24-10) as he's had losses. Most of his wins have come outside of the WGC, i.e Seve Trophy and Volvo World Matchplay, but it all supports the notion that conditions are best suited when scrambling and grinding are required; he is a US Open champ after all. Some (most) people will probably tell me that I probably picked the two hardest brackets to decipher. Without doubt GMAC's is the toughest. He has Mahan, Kaymer, DJ and an inform Bubba to contend with. But bar Mahan, you have an out of form Kaymer, DJ doesn't fair well round here (but 2-0 Ryder Cup singles) and Bubba is probably still *hungover (crying his eyes out whilst praising baby Jesus) from last week. I can't talk myself out of it, so Gmac is my second and final outright pick.
I usually try and pick a winner from each bracket so I can do a wee Yankee or Lucky 15. So, of the other brackets I fancy Stricker to putt everyone's lights out in his bracket and Ryan Moore to continue a solid start to his season by beating the defending champ and winning his bracket. Before I go, if you are going to do bets in each round, Paddy Power's special this week is money back if your selection loses their match after leading through 12 holes; so keep that in mind.
My Selections:
Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 with Skybet, among others (1 pt each way)
Graeme McDowell @ 35/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way)
For fun
Sergio Garcia 6/1 (Hogan bracket)
Graeme McDowell 9/1 (Snead bracket)
Ryan Moore 10/1 (Player bracket)
Steve Stricker 11/1 (Jones bracket)
£1 lucky 15
Be lucky!
putting was a massive problem and in match play if you can't hole five footers you're not going to win. His stroke is massively improved and I'm backing him to put on a show this week in what is a Ryder Cup year. That last point should not be understated this week. This is the first real chance for players to put their hat in the ring for the Ryder Cup; McGinley and Watson will be keeping a close eye. Looking at Sergio bracket, it's not easy, none of them are. His first (hopefully) real challenge will probably come from Poults. Nobody will want to play Poulter, he's an out an out match player, a real grinder, and you'll have to beat him, it won't be handed to you. Rors is obviously in his bracket too, and as much as I think he's going to have a massive year I think that if Sergio can have some forward momentum and confidence going into that match, he definitely has the beating off him in a match which will have a ridiculous amount of natural talent on display.
Next up is more of an obvious match play pick (I think) but slightly less favourable on current form coming into the tourney. Graeme McDowell, actually that sounds a little formal. GMAC is a sort of player I want in my team if I picking a Ryder Cup team. He grinds like nobody's business and has the game to compete with anyone on his day. Of course it's easy to think back to Celtic Manor and draw that conclusion but he's all business on the course and his attitude is the main reason why I like siding with him in match play. His overall match play record is great, he's had twice as many wins (24-10) as he's had losses. Most of his wins have come outside of the WGC, i.e Seve Trophy and Volvo World Matchplay, but it all supports the notion that conditions are best suited when scrambling and grinding are required; he is a US Open champ after all. Some (most) people will probably tell me that I probably picked the two hardest brackets to decipher. Without doubt GMAC's is the toughest. He has Mahan, Kaymer, DJ and an inform Bubba to contend with. But bar Mahan, you have an out of form Kaymer, DJ doesn't fair well round here (but 2-0 Ryder Cup singles) and Bubba is probably still *hungover (crying his eyes out whilst praising baby Jesus) from last week. I can't talk myself out of it, so Gmac is my second and final outright pick.
I usually try and pick a winner from each bracket so I can do a wee Yankee or Lucky 15. So, of the other brackets I fancy Stricker to putt everyone's lights out in his bracket and Ryan Moore to continue a solid start to his season by beating the defending champ and winning his bracket. Before I go, if you are going to do bets in each round, Paddy Power's special this week is money back if your selection loses their match after leading through 12 holes; so keep that in mind.
My Selections:
Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 with Skybet, among others (1 pt each way)
Graeme McDowell @ 35/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way)
For fun
Sergio Garcia 6/1 (Hogan bracket)
Graeme McDowell 9/1 (Snead bracket)
Ryan Moore 10/1 (Player bracket)
Steve Stricker 11/1 (Jones bracket)
£1 lucky 15
Be lucky!
