Charl is set for major number two, at Valhalla

The USPGA Championship at Valhalla

I think it's safe to say that if McIlroy turns up with the same game he's had on his last two starts, we may as well just fast-track to the Ryder Cup. I can't think of any reason to put someone off backing Rory this week. I won't be backing him myself, because of the price, but that's just *me.

*The same person who backed a one legged Tiger in the '08 US Open at 5/2. Haha!

Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville is the host for this years (the 96th) USPGA Championship. The course itself can be extended to 7,458 yards and is a Par 71. The Americans would probably describe the front nine as more links golf and the back nine as park land. Since the Ryder Cup was played in 2008, the Senior PGA was held there and after the tournament the greens were upgraded to a more heat-tolerant strain of Bentgrass (in layman's terms to stop them burning so easily).
I think if you were to look for players to back, the obvious trend would be their last start, the last 7 winners have been in the Top 25 (two had Top 5's) the week before. The other thing to look for is their record on Jack Nicklaus' courses. Nicklaus course's tend to be long and forgiving off the tee, with the emphasis on approach shots to the greens. Reports coming from the states have stated that the rough is sparse enough in the landing areas, so length is desirable but not compulsory and accuracy the same.

So although I think McIlroy will be hard beat, I do have three players to take him on with.

Charl Schwartzel has been streaky at best this year, but does fill the recent trend of USPGA winners with his T-4th finish last week at Firestone. Schwartzel's iron play hasn't been at it's best this year (ranks outside the Top 100 in Greens in Regulation) but his scrambling is pretty good (Top 25) and if your not hitting greens in Valhalla, you need to be pretty good around the greens. Although his iron play hasn't been good, his long irons have been tasty enough, ranking in the Top 10 for approaches over 200 yards; so for those strong Par 4's and the reachable Par 5, that's a nice stat to read. He also had a Top 10 at the Memorial the past two years so he clearly plays Nicklaus courses pretty well.

Jason Day is seemingly injured every other week, but reports suggest that he's over the worst of it, and although a withdrawal last week due dizziness, he's now too big not to back each way this week (six places). Day had a great start to the season where he won the WGC Matchplay, which silenced the critics (temporally) who said he didn't win enough for a guy who always seemed to be in contention in the majors. But he seemed in good spirits yesterday when leading the long drive contest at Valhalla with a 338 yards (?). He's been consistent without any great finishes at Muirfield Village (Nicklaus track) but his major record is ridiculously good for a non-winner and I've also felt outside of Augusta this would be his best chance.

My third pick is Victor Dubuisson. I've had this man in my mind for Valhalla for a while now, and backed him before the Bridgestone last week, on the exchanges, in the hope of a good finish coming into this week. He was ok, but finished in the middle of the pack. He showed this year at the Match Play that he can perform on the big stage and with USPGA being the most common win for rookie major winners, I've pulled the trigger. Victor is just an all round solid player, decent driver of the ball and has hit around 70% greens in regulation this year. I've also noticed that his short game has got a lot better and with the run off areas at Valhalla, he'll need it to be.

For a saver bet this week I've went with the notion that if McIlroy wins, he will probably lead after the first round. He's led regularly after the first round this year and roughly 10% of career PGA Tour events, he's led on the Thursday evening. So we would normally be looking for around 10/1 for FRL, but on current form I think the 15/2 on offer from Paddy Power is very fair.


My selections:

Charl Schwartzel each way @ 35/1 with Stan James (2 pts each way)
Jason Day each way with @ 70/1 with Stan James (1.5 points each way)
Victor Dubuisson each way @ 100/1 with Stan James (1 pt each way)
Rory McIlroy - First Round Leader @ 15/2 with Paddy Power (2 point win)

Bradley is back to his happy place!

WGC Bridgestone Invitational

So this is the week we will probably find out if Tiger is ready for a fight to get to the Fed-Ex Cup, and most probably a Ryder Cup spot, although the latter seems more likely at this point (has to get a Captain's pick). Tiger is an 8-time defending champ this week and being back in one of his fruitful hunting grounds is probably what the great man needs right now. Looking back at my blog in this event from 2012 (didn't do one last year) I had a max bet on Tiger and went with the headline 'Is Tiger bombproof this week?', he's anything but it, this time around. As a golf fan I'd love him to show something in the next couple of weeks, but as a punter I'm happy enough to look elsewhere.

Firestone seems to be a course where experience is key, maybe Tiger set that trend but the same players tend to do well each year. My headline pick this week is a past champ and was runner-up (albeit by a furlong or two) in his title defence. Keegan Bradley seems to have found a place that really suits his eye. He was 15th in 2011, in what could have been a lot better had he not shot 74 in the final round, he then won in 2012 when Jim Furyk thought it would be better entering the Pancake Factory than it would the winners enclosure, and then he finished runner-up to a ruthless Tiger last year. Form book = stacked. This season hasn't been a consistent one by any stretch, but a Top 5 in the Greenbrier and a Top 20 in Liverpool may have turned him in the right direction in what is an important time of the season, in Ryder Cup year.

My only other selection this week is Bubba Watson. Ironically enough he was my each way alternative to Tiger in 2012, when he was a 33/1 chance, this year, after two wins he's a 40/1 poke. He of course won the the Masters in 2012, and then again this year, but I think he's definitely a much better performer now than he was then; his 64, 64 finish at Riviera would support that. On a course where tee shots can be key, I think 40/1 on a player of Bubba's calibre is a bet most weeks. Also worth noting that a few other Masters winners (Woods, Scott, Singh) have won here, so maybe a small course link there.

My selections:

Keegan Bradley @ 25/1 with Bet365 (2 pts each way)
Bubba Watson @ 40/1 with Bet365 (1 pt each way)

No time like the present, for Sergio.

The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool (Hoylake)

These days there are more sightings of Santa Claus than there is of my blog, but we are going for three out of three in the Majors this year.

Royal Liverpool hasn't changed much since Tiger plotted his way around in 2006, with the course only lengthened by 80 odd yards, a couple of bunkers moved and a few run off areas around the greens altered. But what will be noticeable is how lush the course is, compared to the bouncy, burnt grass in '06. I read an interesting stat somewhere (possibly an article) that Hoylake is the only course on the Open rota that finishes with a Par 5, and only one of five that hosted a (any) major in the last 20 years that ended with a par 5 (Hoylake, Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Valhalla and Baltusrol. Interesting (or not) that Tiger won four of them (but that's when he was still winning majors!).

Of the players at the top of the market, I found it easier to get away some more than others. I don't think I'll ever back McIlroy in an Open, he gets nervous when there's a hair dryer in the vicinity, never mind gusts coming off the Irish Sea. Rose has a terrible record on the links, granted a nice win last week, but going for three wins in a row is a massive mental effort (although he went on record as saying he didn't feel the last two wins took anything out of him). Scott was tougher to get away from, but price and current form managed to pursuant me to avoid. Mickelson is having a poor season, results-wise, but has shown glimpses and wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts up a strong defence. Kaymer is too short after his US Open (that'a boy) win, although his links form (Alfred Dunhill) had me massively debating it and Tiger, well he has a lot to prove, probably just too much to make him a betting proposition   but I'd love to see him put on a show. On to who I do like this week:

Sergio Garcia - YES I AM BETTING WITH MY HEAD AND NOT MY HEART, maybe a bit of both, but not without reason. He had a share of 5th in 2006, in what was a pretty poor season for him going in. Garcia goes to Hoylake in much better form this year with a lot of Top 10s and his win in Qatar at the start of the year. I'm adamant that Sergio's best chance of winning a major is an Open. Some people hate it when I mention his ball-striking ability, but win, lose or draw it rarely changes. I hope it blows a gale and he can plot his way round with his punched tee shots and hopefully keep his much improved putting up. He should of won one already and that won't be lost on him. He seems a different fella these days, now that he's settled down with his girlfriend and his positive messages on social media in recent months haven't gone unnoticed for a guy where confidence is everything (almost everything).

Next up is Shane Lowry. I'm pretty sure this will be the first time I've decorated the mahogany when it comes to this man. I was always kind of conscious that he could of been a flash in the pan, after his win as an amateur. It's a bit like a handicapper winning a listed race at York, you can't help but feel, the uniqueness of the track favoured him, the usual suspects didn't turn up and someone pancaked it a furlong from home. But as usual, I found myself backing away from the cookie jar; he's turned into a steady pro. The two time tour winner now always gets taken into concentration,  when two out of the following three apply - 1. The tournament could be effected by poor weather 2. It's a links course 3. He's priced up at three figures - this week has even surpassed Meatloaf's expectations, as he ticks all three boxes. Of course, although Irish, he doesn't hail from one of our many great links courses (plays out of Carton House), but he can play links as well as the rest of them, and always pleasing to see a good showing in a Dunhill Links when looking for your Open picks (3rd in 2013).



Third up this week is Jamie Donaldson. A missed cut last week doesn't bother me too much, as he was in form and has previous on a links. Donaldson seems to be a permanent dark horse these days, popping up in someone's preview in all the big events. After finally getting over the line for his maidan tour win in the Irish Open at Royal Portrush, he seemed to appear whenever the big cheques were on the table; a Top 10 in the USPGA the same year (2012), he has had runner up finishes in Turkey, South Africa and the WGC Cadillac Champ and a win in Abu Dhabi, averaging his earnings to around half a million sterling each of those weeks. That keeps the bank manager happy. After a missed cut in the US Open this year, he had a couple of solid Top 5's at the BMW and the Open de France and with his victory at Royal Portrush still in my memory, he makes the list.

*Quack Quack* El Pato is my fourth pick this week. Angel Cabrera winning two weeks ago was a surprise to some, but he's not exactly a guy you could pin point to a win. He still plays a lot of his golf closer to home, and I must admit I don't follow him outside of the main tours, but nine missed cuts and a victory this season on the PGA Tour tells it's own tale. The trend with Angel, is that there's never a trend. He had no form to speak of going into either of his previous major wins. He finished 7th here in 2006 and does tend to turn up at the bigger events, so I'll back him at the prices to buck a trend and actually continue in good form for more than one week!


At massive prices KJ Choi tempted me at 200/1, with over 300/1 available on the exchanges, but couldn't quite justify it. A saver bet comes in the form of Matteo Manassero to finish in the Top 20 at 11/2 with Stan James. Mannasero returned to some form last week in Scotland and although doesn't have the Open record I'd expect him to have, he is a Silver Medal winner and of course a British Amateur Champ, so that's good enough for me at the prices.

My Selections:

Sergio Garcia at 28/1 with Coral (2 point win) 
Shane Lowry at 125/1 with Stan James (1 point each way) 6 PLACES
Jamie Donaldson at 75/1 with Stan James (1 point each way) 6 PLACES
Angel Cabrera at 75/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way) 7 PLACES
Matteo Manassero at 11/2 for Top 20 finish with Stan James (2 point win)

Rors to win US Open No2 at Pinehurst

The US Open at Pinehurst No2.

This week we are in North Carolina at Pinehurst #2 for the US Open. I always think that it’s the most emotional major for the players. Strange comment, maybe, but there’s always tears or some sort of sob story. Maybe it’s because it always concludes on Father’s Day, not sure. I'd say the neutral golf fan will be cheering on Mickelson this week to complete his 'Grand Slam' - so we can expect more tears if that happens. After picking Bubba Watson (among others!) for the Masters let’s see if we can make 2 out of 2 in this majors.

Pinehurst No2

The course itself is just after (2011) a restoration by Ben Crenshaw and his partner to change some of the outlay of the original Donald Ross design. I listened to an interview by Ben Crenshaw this morning in the hope of picking up some tips on who it might suit, but came away feeling nervous for the fella. He seemed very conscious that this course was one of all time great courses in America and he was almost scared to touch it. What I did learn was that the course is now a lot more open off the tee, it’s been lengthened and the rough is now ‘wispy rye grass, sandy and little tufts of grass’ – he was also quoted as saying ‘it will be pot luck off the fairways, you can have a recoverable lie, or you could get a poor lie and have to chip out; it’s all natural though.’ I think it’s safe to say that like any other US Open (bar Rory’s) pars will be good scores and you’ll have to earn your score. On to who I like this week…

My Selections

My main pick this week is Rory McIlroy. McIlroy has had an interesting few weeks, with the breakup of his engagement to Caroline Wozniacki and a victory at Wentworth. Both of which most people wouldn’t of seen coming! Wentworth was a course that McIlroy was never too fond of, vocally saying that it was a course he struggled to find his game on. So to find a win, to end a week that he was subject of mass media presence for his off the course issues, it spoke volumes of the talent the man has. But it should be noted that it wasn’t a win out of the blue; Rors had a host of Top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour (six in total) going into the European Tour’s flagship event. One of these Top 10s came at the Memorial Tournament, where in his opening round he holed 16 out of 16 putts from inside 15 feet. Ridiculous. If he can somehow find that putting stroke again this week, on greens which will (usually) be much faster, I fancy him to be bang there on Sunday. He has all the attributes needed to win here, long off the tee, relatively straight, great long iron player and a super short game. One of the reasons I think he plays so well at USGA events is because his high towering irons are perfect for holding on to quick greens. That said, with the weather forecast, the course mind not play as bouncy as it can do.

My second pick this week is Webb Simpson. When you look at Simpson’s performance stats, it’s easy to see why he already has a US Open in the bag. He won’t be the longest off the tee this week, but he’ll find plenty of fairways. I’m sure the comments about the course being a little friendlier to errant drivers wasn't really what he wanted to hear. Simpson has had a quiet few months since a win in October (start of the 2014 season), then a run of good finishes right through February. It was a positive to see him closing with a 66 for third last week and hopefully he carries that momentum into this week. A stat that will be against Rose this week was also against Simpson last year – only 4 players have finished in the Top 15 in their title defence – Simpson was a solid T-32 last year. He is one of the better scramblers on tour and that’s what will hopefully stand him in good stead come Sunday. Simpson has been vocal in the past about being a fan of Donald Ross designs and hopefully the restoration by Crenshaw will fit his eye too.

My third pick this week is Dustin Johnson. Big DJ is always on the shortlist when ‘length of the tee’ is mentioned in any course guide. He is the second longest on the PGA Tour this season, in what has produced a mixed bag of results. After his victory at the back end of last year I assumed (like last year) he was only going to kick on from there; but he hasn’t. DJ has had a few Top 10’s (two of which were runner up finishes), but for a guy that hits so many greens (in regulation) it’s easy to spot his weakness. Putting isn’t a weakness that you can afford to have any week on tour, let alone on the slick US Open greens, but his putting is on and off and will undoubtedly tell the tale of DJ’s week at Pinehurst. He will feel he has unfinished business in the US Open after he bombed out with an 82 in 2010 when he seemed in control heading into the final day and after closing with a 67 last week, he is another carrying some momentum going forward.

My fourth and final outright pick is Martin Kaymer. The ice cool German is back to form after a long period of poor golf (by his standards), but because of that, he’s now a tad short as a betting proposition this week. I don’t know off the top of my head what price he’d of been ante post for the US Open, pre-Sawgrass, but I can hazard a guess at 150s-ish. But would you of backed him then? He has had some form in previous US Opens (Top 20 in ’12, Top 10 in ’10) and when you look at his performance stats you can see why. He’s a great driver of the golf ball, long-ish and straight and his iron play is very solid. But when it comes to scrambling, it doesn’t make great reading. That said, he scrambled well at Sawgrass and putts well under pressure when in the mix. I think the course will fit Kaymer’s eye very well and after reading what the players have said regarding the course changes (more of a links feel) I feel more positive about this.

After reading Ben Coley’s ranting on Twitter about the value in backing Rory McIlroy to be First Round Leader in events that should suit him, I told myself I would, when I fancied him for the win. I don’t have an exact stat of how many times he’s lead after the first round, but I imagine it must now be well over 10 times in the last few years. When the First Round Leader market was first offered by bookmakers, you used to find Tiger Woods was around the same price as he was to win the event (usually 3/1!). But with McIlroy you tend to get a nice price, and this week is no different. So I’m on!

Be lucky!

My Selections:

Rory McIlroy to win @ 12/1 with Stan James – 2 pts win

Webb Simpson @ 50/1 (6 places) with Will Hill – 1 pt each way

Dustin Johnson @ 40/1 (6 places) with Stan James – 1 pt each way

Martin Kaymer each way @ 40/1 (6 places) with Stan James – 1 pt each way

Rory McIlroy – First Round Leader at 20/1 with Stan James – 1 pt win

Fowler set for victory!

Wells Fargo Championship

A decent line up assembles with ten of the Top 30 in the world teeing it up this week, including Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson. Mickelson has had seven Top 10 finishes in ten starts here and McIlroy has a win and a runner up finish (beaten in a play off), so they are rightly at the head of the market. McIlroy of course also holds the course record (62) when shot the lights out of the place on his way to victory in 2010.

Quail Hollow Golf Club is a 7,442 yard Par 72 designed by George Cobb. The tourney tends to throw up a young winner, with 4 of the last 6 winners getting the W before their 24th birthday; with Noh's victory last week, it could be a nice couple of weeks for the babies of the tour.

My only outright pick this week is Rickie Fowler. This will be the third time I've backed him already this year (Doral, Augusta) but thanks to him placing at the Masters I'm still in the green. I haven't had a golf bet since the Masters but was a keen observer last week, following the scores on my phone when I was on my holidays, hoping that Fowler wouldn't have a great week. It was a little selfish on my part, but I was looking some sort of price this week, so needs must. He was a tad short last week and some might even say this week too, but there isn't much missing from his game and I'm hoping that the final ingredient might be, the scene of his only tour win. One of my favourite golfing moments in recent years was his approach shot in that play off to get his win in 2012. The fact McIlroy was in it added to it all I think. Fowler has played a few tourneys in a row, with Top 10s in Texas and Augusta before missing the cut last week and I think it might have been a blessing in disguise having a weekend off and getting some good thoughts in his head for this week.

I'm doing a little saver bet this week in case it all goes wrong with Rickie. Big bad Bobby Karlsson lives just down the road from Quail Hollow and is starting to find some sort of form again after a few years off side due to ongoing injuries and loss of form. He was 11th last time out in Morocco and has posted three Top 15's in his three starts this year on tour. Couple that with the fact that he finished fourth here last year I think a bet on him for Top Continental European is a decent bet. His main opposition will come from Blixt who performed so well at the Masters, though other than that he hasn't had the best of seasons. Others in the market include Peter Hanson (No Top 10s in US this year, 1st appearance), Nicolas Colsaerts (No Top 10s, 4 missed cuts, missed cut last year), Carl Petterson (missed cut last two tourneys, 7 in total this season), Fernandez-Castano (1 Top 25 this year), Martin Kaymer (No Top 20s this calendar year, missed cut last year), Olesen (No Top 20s this year) and Lingmerth (missed his last 3 cuts). With the form of the others taken in to consideration, I make shorter than a 13/2 shot.

My selections:

Rickie Fowler @ 33/1 with Stan James  - 6 places - (2 points each way)

Robert Karlsson @ 13/2 Top Continental European with Betfred (2 point win)

Be Lucky!

Get your wedge of cash on Zach!

The Masters at Augusta National 

Well folks, it's that time of year again, where all the fair weather golfers dust down their clubs in anticipation for the start of the golf season. It's Masters week. As a club golfer it's a week of mixed emotions, as you can't wait for the world's best to try and conquer Amen Corner, but you also know wee 'arry the carpenter, come painter will be butchering your golf course on Saturday with his mates after watching some of the highlights on TV. 

There's two noticeable absentees this week, one has never had a woman underneath him, the other has had a few. Tiger Woods last week joined the Eisenhower tree as casualties before the start of this years Masters and though both are a noticeable miss, come Sunday, both will be somewhat irrelevant in what should be a cracking renewal. For those who don't follow golf too closely, the Eisenhower tree was a massive pine, situated on the left side of the 17th fairway. It was named after the former President, after he campaigned to have it removed because he kept hitting it. He proposed to the Augusta members to have it cut down, but wasn't successful. 

Tiger struggled all year with his back and last week confirmed what a few people thought, he wouldn't be playing Augusta this year. I think I was caught in two minds, I was sad he wouldn't be playing, but happy that he wants to look after himself, so that he can hopefully entertain us for another decade yet. A few mindless keyboard warriors on Twitter were put in their place too, after announcing that he was putting it all on, to hide the fact he couldn't compete with the younger guys anymore. Clueless.

I think the Masters is one event where a lot of the 'tipsters' tend to agree on what sort of criteria a player must fill in order to win a Green Jacket. That said, and this year more than most, there hasn't been much agreement on who the winner might be. Relatively good form this season is desirable but course form is a must. Debutants don't have a great record (remember I said this when reading my picks), with the only debutant winner being Fuzzy Zoeller's all the way back when people were actually being named Fuzzy (1979). This year there are 24 debutants at Augusta and a few will fancy their chances this week. Although it is a massive trend, I think with the way the young guys are coming through with absolutely no fear, zero respect (in a respectful way) for the old guard it's only a matter of time before this trend gets smashed. It could be this year. 

Again for the people who are reading, who may not be up to the speed with the course itself. Augusta is a Par 72 measuring nearly 7,500 yards which historically suits a golfer who can shape a ball right to left. This tends to suit the bombers and the recent winners (save Zach Johnson) were all pretty long with the big stick. I think it's safe to say (someone will disagree with me) that of all the majors it's the one where accuracy off the tee isn't a massive thing, agree? The rough isn't as penal as other courses on the major schedule, but you still need to keep it outa the pines! The stats you really want to look at are Greens in Regulation and Scrambling. If you fancy a player that is high up in the former, forget the latter, if he's low down the rankings in GIR, you better hope he's high up in the scrambling. Augusta's greatest defence are it's greens. 

I usually only back a few golfers when I have a bet, but this week I've gone a bit mad and backed five. A couple of past champs, a couple of young players and a debutant, yes I'm taking on the trend!

First up is Zach Johnson. With what I wrote above, most people (and many have backed him) would of thought I would be going for the other Johnson (Dustin), but I'm quietly confident that one of the shortest hitters to ever win a Masters, can actually win it again. It's a selection that I am 100% sure 

will divide opinion, but here's why I like his chances this week. In what is known as a 'wrap around' 

season (season starts end of 2013) he has had two wins and three other Top 10's, including a T6 in his last start (Valero Texas Open). He has never had a better run of form going into a Masters, and it should be noted that the last two majors of 2013 he had Top 10 finishes, after a Top 10 finish in his last event before them. Clearly carrying form into a major is key for him. I'm sure there'll be a few to pop up and say that when he won in 2007 he didn't break par for the week, but I'd ask, who did? People will also be quick to say that he's too short, but he was 12 under par for the Par 5's, the year he won. His wedge play is phenomenal to watch, with no better example than when he holed out in Tiger's tourney to beat him. Ridiculous shot. When I look at his stats this year I'm filled with more confidence, he's Top 5 in Driving Accuracy, Top 15 in GIR, 2nd in Scoring Average and Top 10 in Birdie Average. With the course getting a soaking, I fancy more players will have to lay up on the Par 5's, if so, he'll get down in fewer shots that the majority of the field. Big showin' please, Zach.

Next up is another previous champ and this guy doesn't play golf like the rest of us. Bubba Watson is as unique as they come, but for what he lacks in common sense at times, he makes up for in imagination. When I said earlier that the players that tend to play well shape the ball right to left, I meant the traditional drawers of the ball, a little inside to out, Bubba can shape it both ways. Two of my favourite shots of his illustrate that point perfectly. The first being a driver off the fairway in Hawaii, where he cut the ball about 50 yards right to left and landed it on a green that nobody hit all day. The second was of course his tournament winning wedge shot where he hooked it on to the green; still hard to believe he pulled it off, even now. The worry (it's not really a worry) is that he pulled out of his last tourney after a monster score, claiming he had allergy problems, though I think he just wasn't at the races and fancied a bit of time at home before a busy schedule. Like Zach, 

Bubba has had his best start to a season coming into the Masters, a win, two runner up finishes and

three other Top 10s tells you the guy is in form (if we put a line through his WD). Unsurprisingly he leads the tour in Driving Distance, but the pleasing stat to read is, he has hit 70% GIR this year on the PGA Tour. If he keeps that up, he could well be toasting baby Jesus on Sunday Night. I really need to stop making the religion jokes when writing about Bubba. Sorry, not sorry. 

Now we get to one of the Top 5 best players in the world, or maybe not. Patrick Reed is a win and PR campaign away from avoiding fighting Manny Pacquiao for the rest of his career (he nearly sells himself better than Floyd Mayweather. Not funny when I have to explain it). We all had a giggle after his interview when he won the WGC Cadillac Championship, but after the dust settled you had to appreciate how impressively he has started his pro career. He's won twice already this year, which is as good as it gets, unless you live with Jimmy Walker, in which case you still sit at the children's table. Reed will definitely test my theory, that you don't have to be straight to win at Augusta as he's seen as many fairways as I have this year. But he can putt and he plays Par 5's pretty well, which is key around this track. Of the debutants, he's my favourite and his confidence (some might say arrogance) will serve him well, in what could be a great opportunity in a wide open event this year.

My fourth pick is Rickie Fowler. The wee man didn't shine for me at Doral when I fancied him there, but another strong showing in a Texas last week has convinced me to give him another go. His season hasn't been near as successful or consistent as my previous picks, with four missed cuts and only the two Top 10s, but he falls into the category of players that have a few appearances under their belt and have showed some sort of course form without any Top 10s to speak of. It should be noted that he took the opportunity to get a private jet down to Augusta last week with McIlroy for some early practise and got a couple of rounds in before playing in Texas. His game is still a working 

progress under Butch, but Butch knows how to get his players a green jacket and with a good putting week he can contend. 

My final selection is Hideki Matsuyama. Some what of an unknown to the fans that don't follow the sport particularly closely. He is only a pup from Japan, but this will be his third appearance at Augusta and with the experience he has built he can contend. He won the low amateur in 2011 and had another go the following year, but blew out in the last round. He is now a pro and has won four events in Japan putting himself at the top of the list of possible Asian winners of the major championships, in the not so distant future. The reason I have selected him is more for his major record than his wins in the last year, which sounds strange considering he's only teed it up three times; but he's had two Top 10's and a Top 20 finish. His ball striking is as good as you'll see, he absolutely stripes it for a wee guy. His driving distance is nicely complimented by a decent iron game, which is a nice combo for Augusta. 

If you have had a read and think you'd like to listen to some professional opinions, you can tune into Sky Channel 861 on Tuesday at 8pm and listen to Ben (@bencoleygolf) and Sam (@golfpunters) who you may (should) follow on Twitter.

Good luck with your selections this week. My staking plan is below:

Zach Johnson - 33/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 2 pts each way

Bubba Watson - 28/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way

Patrick Reed - 66/1 with Ladbrokes 5 places - 1 pt each way

Rickie Fowler - 66/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way

Hideki Matsuyama - 80/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way

Total stake - 12 pts

Be lucky! 

Fuyrk is the Trump card

So I didn't have a bet last week at the Honda Classic, and I’m glad I didn’t. I would have been on McIlroy and would have gone to work even more depressed than usual on Monday. It's hard to believe he hasn't won a couple of stroke play events this year, but he's got to be pleased with the way this season has started. The problem is, we all assume when he gets the lead, he'll kick for home and no one will catch him; like he's done a few times in the past. But half way from home last week he was cantering all over the top of the chasing pack only to find wanting down the stretch. To be honest, I thought he was hard done by a little with the plugged lie in the bunker on Sunday (yes he shouldn't of hit it there blah blah blah) and from the coverage I saw he didn't really hole his fair share of putts either.

I actually didn't see the end of golf on Sunday and only got to see McIlroy’s 5 wood into 18 on Monday night. All I'm saying is; Tiger would of holed that, fist pumped across the green, high five'd Feherty and ploughed his way through every second girl on his way to Doral. Rory didn't, but that ruthlessness will come in spades soon. Before I finish my rant on last week I need to give a shout out to Ben Coley of Bettingzone fame (@BenColeyGolf) who tipped up Russell Henley at 300/1 in his article. That's how you get some points on the board folks! Well done, Ben.

On to this week and with all the new changes at Doral it's expected course form won't be a big a factor as usual. Well that's what I'm telling myself anyway so I don't have to look through past results. Lazy. To be honest I've two picks and I was backing one regardless of course form and the other because the price jumped out at me when I went onto Oddschecker. The course itself has been changed massively with seemingly the only untouched hole being the infamous 18th. New bunkers, sand capped fairways (for drainage) and new trees. From what I've read the course itself is more wide open, but fairway bunkers have been added (e.g. landing area on 1st fairway) and the greens have been made bigger with more thought required with approaches; wrong tiers and you're scrambling for your par. The green at the Par 3 15th has been tripled in size and is now surrounded by water on three sides.

My first pick is Jim Furyk. I can never seem to get this fella right and he's cost me a few times, but his price this week is what attracts me. He's only teed it up a few times this season but has bettered his finish with every event and I think is on the upward curve going into an event where he has had success at in the past. I know a few people think that Jim's nerves have gone a little and he can't finish events off, but I'm not so sure. He did shoot a 59 last year! He knows how to plot himself around a golf course and although it's a lot more open this year his approaches to the flags is what will serve him well this week on these much bigger greens. He had Top 3 finishes here a few years ago ('08, '09) and it will be interesting to look back at the result on Sunday and see how the players with the previous course form faired.

My second pick this week is Rickie Fowler. I can't help but like the kid, I know he looks a bit like the wee fella out of High School Musical (I've heard, I've never seen it) and his outfits make Poulter's look bland, but he has talent. The Yanks were screaming and shouting about him when he was younger, playing in Walker Cups etc but he's never really fulfilled his potential on the pro ranks, yet. He took a while to get his first win, and when he won the Wells Fargo in a play off (which included McIlroy) I thought that would be the start. But he went off the boil and other than a fight back in the Sunday singles at the Ryder Cup I don't remember him doing much else. He's now with Butch Harmon and all the vibes appear to be good; he seems to be attacking the course again. A third place finish in the WGC Match Play was the first real sign that he had found his form again and after watching that I fancied he could go well at a course like this. I like his iron play and with similar approaches to the ones faced at Dove Mountain, I think this could be the event that he can throw his hat into the Ryder Cup ring.

My Selections:

Rickie Fowler each way at 66/1 with WillHill (1 pt each way- 5 places)

Jim Furyk each way at 60/1 with Paddy Power (1 pt each way – 5 places

Be Lucky!

It's all about confidence!

WGC Matchplay @ Dove Mountain

Last week was a no show for my picks with Harris English the best placed finish in T-10th without ever contending or giving me much of sweat. I was hopeful of a Bill Haas charge on Sunday but he went backwards and Kevin Na, well wee Kev missed the cut; bless him. The winner in the end was Bubba Watson, who shot 14 under par over the weekend (bogey free) to win by two shots. I think every man and his dog was waiting for a Bubba implosion on Sunday, but it didn't come. Much to the disappointment of my Snapchat friends.

This week we are off to Dove Mountain for the Matchplay. There's a few absentees this week with Tiger, Rory and Scotty all deciding they don't need a share of the massive purse up for grabs. So although it should be the best 64 players in the world, it's not. The course itself is pretty long, gives plenty of room from the tee and has pretty big greens. Greens in a Regulation stats aren't massive on my criteria this week as hitting the greens won't necessarily give you the upper hand against your opponent. If you end up on the wrong tier you'd *probably rather you were chipping (*probably a slight exaggeration on my part). As a golfer myself, when I play Matchplay I think to myself even when I'm playing bad, just grind, you're playing the man not the course. The pro ranks are no different. Hence why some tipsters don't like tipping in match play because your pick can't play his way into the tournament. Bubba Watson made the cut on the number last week (one under) and shot 64, 64 over the weekend to get the win. You could go round in five under in your opening match, your opponent shoots six under, wins by a cosy half length down the 18th and your home in time to watch the soccaaaaar *said in my best American accent*. Just as easy you could play like a hacker and limp through to the next round where you suddenly find something with your game. So it's not a lottery to pick the winner as some suggest, but you'll need luck along the way. At the end of the day the last eight finalists have been Ryder Cup-ers!



So two picks this week. First up, Sergio Garcia. Before anyone comments, I'm not betting with my heart here. Two wins (granted one in a reduced field) in his last three events makes him a form horse. Anybody who has followed Sergio's career knows the mans issues! One day, flawed genius, another day clinically insane. Both days tend to be based round how is confidence levels are. With Sergio, I
like to strike when the iron's hot. Course form is ok, a semi finalist here in 2010 but I don't think I'm
going to try and convince myself that Sergio has been a great match player. His overall record is a

winning one, nothing spectacular but it's got to be said he's never came into this tournament in this sort of form before and with the confidence that only victories can give you. Also in the past his
putting was a massive problem and in match play if you can't hole five footers you're not going to win. His stroke is massively improved and I'm backing him to put on a show this week in what is a Ryder Cup year. That last point should not be understated this week. This is the first real chance for players to put their hat in the ring for the Ryder Cup; McGinley and Watson will be keeping a close eye. Looking at Sergio bracket, it's not easy, none of them are. His first (hopefully) real challenge will probably come from Poults. Nobody will want to play Poulter, he's an out an out match player, a real grinder, and you'll have to beat him, it won't be handed to you. Rors is obviously in his bracket too, and as much as I think he's going to have a massive year I think that if Sergio can have some forward momentum and confidence going into that match, he definitely has the beating off him in a match which will have a ridiculous amount of natural talent on display.

Next up is more of an obvious match play pick (I think) but slightly less favourable on current form coming into the tourney. Graeme McDowell, actually that sounds a little formal. GMAC is a sort of player I want in my team if I picking a Ryder Cup team. He grinds like nobody's business and has the game to compete with anyone on his day. Of course it's easy to think back to Celtic Manor and draw that conclusion but he's all business on the course and his attitude is the main reason why I like siding with him in match play.  His overall match play record is great, he's had twice as many wins (24-10) as he's had losses. Most of his wins have come outside of the WGC, i.e Seve Trophy and Volvo World Matchplay, but it all supports the notion that conditions are best suited when scrambling and grinding are required; he is a US Open champ after all. Some (most) people will probably tell me that I probably picked the two hardest brackets to decipher. Without doubt GMAC's is the toughest. He has Mahan, Kaymer, DJ and an inform Bubba to contend with. But bar Mahan, you have an out of form Kaymer, DJ doesn't fair well round here (but 2-0 Ryder Cup singles) and Bubba is probably still *hungover (crying his eyes out whilst praising baby Jesus) from last week. I can't talk myself out of it, so Gmac is my second and final outright pick.

I usually try and pick a winner from each bracket so I can do a wee Yankee or Lucky 15. So, of the other brackets I fancy Stricker to putt everyone's lights out in his bracket and Ryan Moore to continue a solid start to his season by beating the defending champ and winning his bracket. Before I go, if you are going to do bets in each round, Paddy Power's special this week is money back if your selection loses their match after leading through 12 holes; so keep that in mind.

My Selections:

Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 with Skybet, among others (1 pt each way)
Graeme McDowell @ 35/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way)

For fun

Sergio Garcia 6/1 (Hogan bracket)
Graeme McDowell 9/1 (Snead bracket)
Ryan Moore 10/1 (Player bracket)
Steve Stricker 11/1 (Jones bracket)

£1 lucky 15

Be lucky! 

Bill Haas previous at Riviera

Northern Trust Open at Riviera

Last week Jimmy Walker joined an elusive club when he won for the third time this season on the PGA Tour. Only Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and David Duval have won three times in a similar stretch (eight tournaments). Nice club to be in! Walker will be well fancied again this week, as he has said this is one of his favourite courses. But I'll let him be this week.

Riviera is a very traditional ball strikers golf course with a real classic feel to it. The tenth hole is one of my favourites on tour and it will sure to be a telling factor again this week. Some decent form going into this week seems to be a common trend along with previous form at the course. My picks have a mixture of both.

First up this week is Bill Haas. Haas is a previous winner and has other has other decent course form too. He was leading going into the final round last year before a closing 73 left him in a tie for third. Haas has had a quiet enough start to the season, making cuts without really challenging over the weekend. His best finish in recent weeks was a T-6 in the Humana Challenge. He's won each year since his 2011 Tour Championship / Fed Ex Cup victories and surely he will start to challenge regularly in majors soon enough. His strong iron play will be key this week and he'll surely give his backers a sweat come Sunday.

My second pick has already had a victory this season. Harris English got over the line for his maiden win at the St Jude Classic last year and has already followed up this season at the Mayakoba. He's had a decent start to the calendar year with a fourth place in Hawaii and another Top 10 in his last start, in Phoenix. Like Haas, he's a strong iron player and is in the Top 10 in Greens in Regulation this season. Unlike Haas, he doesn't have any course form to speak of, made the cut last year but finished in the middle of the pack. But he's a different player now with two victories to his name.

I fancy a Top 10 bet to cover my stakes in case it goes all a little Pete Tong this week. Looking through my previous posts I actually did the same bet in 2012. Kevin Na is definitely one of the more unpredictable players on the PGA Tour and has run up some silly numbers in his time. But on form he can rack up some Top 10s - 38 in his PGA Tour career, compared to his one victory tells you he's not the greatest in contention. But a Top 10 is all I ask of him this week! He was in the Top 5 at Pebble Beach last week and has previous course form when third in 2011 at Riviera. That does me!

My Selections:
Bill Haas @ 28/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) (1 pt each way)
Harris English @ 33/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) (1 pt each way)
Kevin Na 'Top 10 finish' @ 13/2 with Stan James (1 pt win) 

Stenson to start where he left off

Dubai Desert Classic 

It's the final part of the desert swing and Tiger has flew over to join the party. Tiger is a regular to Dubai, probably for two reasons, his appearance fee and his good mate Mark O'Meara adding it to his schedule around the turn of the century. I see O'Meara did an interview for the European Tour website, though not sure what we learnt from it - "you have to putt well to win any tournament", "the European Tour has proven itself to be one of the best tours in the world" and “Driving the ball will be important, keeping the ball in the short grass, and putting well. You have to putt well to win any tournament, and this will certainly not be an exception this week, making the putts." - Thanks Mark. Great insight. 

Tiger was too bad to be true last week and you'd probably want to give him another go in the hope he has shook off some of that rust. At 6/1 he's a decent price but I'm happy to leave him out this week after watching Torrey Pines beat the crap out of him last Saturday. 

McIlroy is the favourite this week at a skinny 3/1. He's definitely got his mojo back but I think I'll let him win again before I touch him at a price like that. On to who I do like this week...

Big bad Henrik Stenson is my weapon of choice this week. After the finish to last season I was of the opinion he would struggle to replicate it at the early part of this season but I think the fact that we are in Dubai I'm hoping he'll get some positive thoughts. I could say a course like this suits Stenson's eye but after last season you'd have to say most courses do when he's on form. I do like siding with Stenson when driving is key, as he absolutely nukes that three wood of his and it usually finds the short stuff. I really don't think that McIlroy is three times more likely to win this week than Henrik. 

Next up is the only Stevie G that matters. Stephen Gallacher is the defending champ this week and I think he can go close again. He likes this part of the world and has already notched up a Top 10 finish in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago. He shot a couple of low numbers here last year with a 62 and 63 to win by a comfortable enough three shots in the end. Most people will point to the trend between results in this part of the world and Portugal to explain the winners in the last few years and Gallacher is one of those examples. He also finished in a tie for second here in 2012 and I'm happy enough to back him at the prices to hopefully place again. 

Off the beaten track a little, but hey, it's my blog. I suppose I better formally retract my Coetzee comment which I posted on Twitter after another lacklustre finish in Abu Dhabi. The guy just frustrates the life out of me. I followed him for a few holes at Royal St George's the year Clarkey won and I thought this kid had talent. But three years down the line he still hasn't picked up a tour win and he's had his chances. The way he just crumbled from the middle of the 18th fairway was worrying but he had another solid week last week and I'm sure he will many times, but I think he might need to have his first one handed to him before he will kick on. Anyways, let's leave it there.

My Selections:

Henrik Stenson to win @ 11/1 with BetFred (2 point win)

Stephen Gallacher each way @ 45/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way) 

Be lucky!