The 2013 Masters – Augusta National
It’s been a strange year on the PGA Tour. Every other week there seems to be a weather delay with late finishes and the Yanks have won fourteen straight events on the tour since it kicked off in Kapalua, in January. Gambling wise it started off well for me, I had DJ in Hawaii but it’s been quiet since, granted I’ve only bet in five other tournaments but still not good! I’ve been planning to start this Masters blog for a while, but I kept finding an excuse not to, so blog number six of the year is below.
The obvious starting point this year is with the new World Number 1, old shagger himself, Tiger Woods. My view on Tiger was (and still is) that he’d never be back dominating the way he did a decade ago, but he could get back winning regularly again. The reason for that view is that Tiger has certain courses he continues to play well, regardless of form; I call them his ‘Hen Runs’. Augusta, unlike Bay Hill and Doral is not one of his hen runs. It’s been eight years since he won his last Masters, he may be a four-time champ but I can’t have him at the same price (with most firms) at Augusta, as he was when defending his title (7 of them) at Bay Hill. The other thing that has helped Tiger back to the top was his safe shot. When in doubt he opens his stance and plays a cut, that isn’t how to play Augusta in my opinion. With all that said, I wouldn’t put anyone off Tiger, I'm just pointing out the lack of value in the price. Tiger gained 11.2 shots on the field through his putting at Bay Hill and if he continues to average 25/26 putts, it could be lights out early. If you like looking at trends – there’s two notable ones; Tiger’s won his last two starts before the Masters once (2001), and he won the Masters, but the other is he’s won three times before the Masters on three occasions and never won the Masters that year; something’s got to give! Also World Number 1’s don’t have a great major record whilst holding that position, since 1986 when the OWGR began, only 13 majors have been won by the current Number 1 ranked player; Tiger has 11 of those.
Will we see this on Sunday?
My Masters Picks
Phil the thrill
My number one pick for the Masters is Phil Mickelson. True to form I missed out on his W at Phoenix by backing him the week before at Torrey Pines and couldn’t pull the trigger again. Though as Ben Coley (of Betting Zone and Twitter ranting fame) pointed out to me after (much use then), he seldom has good form before his wins. As everyone is aware Micko is a big fan of playing the week before a major, he likes to use the opportunity to hone his skills for the following week. The week before his four major victories have been a mixed bunch; he was T-13th in the 2010 Shell Houston Open (1st Masters), 1st in the 2006 Bell South Classic (1st Masters), T-10th in The International (1st PGA Championship) and T-16th in the 2004 Bell South Classic before winning his first Masters title. He wasn’t impressed with the schedule change this year and isn’t playing the Valero Texas Open this week, but was T-16th at the Shell Houston the week before. The outcome of Phil’s week is seemingly down to how he drives the ball and how he putts, very much like Tiger in that aspect. That said, Phil has the ability to turn certain sixes into fours. The funniest interview of the year was after his up n’ down from the cart path at the WGC Cadillac Championship, I’ve posted a link below if you haven’t saw it before. Although the interview was comical for his ‘playing lesson with the Pro’, it was also informative with regards his confidence with his new artillery in the bag and his comment about ‘keeping the ball in play’. As Phil said, it’s not something you’d hear him say too often. I hope he adapts that mindset this week! The negative part to Micko’s game is his putting. He’s been messing around with how he grips the putter, the actual putter grip and different putters; it doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence. I’ve lost count of how many times he’s left himself with a ‘tap in’ of a couple of feet and missed, smashing it at the back of the cup doesn’t always work, big Clarkey had the same mentality a few years ago when it came to two footers. It seems an age ago that Phil had a putt for a 59 at Phoenix, but that's what he can do to golf courses, no shock that he's ranked 2nd in birdie average this season.
'You'd need to be an idiot to open the blade'
'You'd need to be an idiot to open the blade'
My second pick is Justin Rose. He’s got a tad short in the betting since his runner up finish to Tiger at Bay Hill but I still think he’s backable. Rose, like Tiger has enrolled the help of Sean Foley to further develop his game. He hasn’t been outside the Top 20 on either side of the pond this calendar year, with the most notable finishes being the runner up finishes in Abu Dhabi and Bay Hill. When I had a look at his stats I was surprised to see he’s 9th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance, I knew he wasn’t short but averaging 301 yards off the tee this year is impressive. Other notable stats are his ‘Scrambling’ – which he’s ranked 3rd in, and he tops the rankings in Sand Saves this year. What I like most about Rose’s game when he’s on song, is his iron play, especially his mid to short irons, always gives himself lots of birdie chances. Unfortunately like Mickelson he has a tendency to get a very cold putter and if he wants to compete this week he needs to hole his fair share. He has a decent enough Masters record, he was T-8th last year and I can see him bang there in the finish this year. The fact he leads the tour on Back 9 scoring average is another pleasing stat, that said the pressure on Masters Sunday isn’t something he’s faced so far this season.
Game face
My third pick in Padraig Harrington. As I do this blog Harrington is currently playing in the Valero Texas Open, but I had already decided he would be my final pick so I’m going to stick with him now, regardless of his finish in Texas. For years I had a real dislike for Harrington, not for his constant ‘tinkering’ of the golf swing which a few dislike him for, but because he got in the way of Sergio winning a major or two! Padraig is a three time major champ, but has not contended on a regular occurrence since. He’s a funny character; a psychologist would have a field day with him, but when he’s on, he knows how to get the job done. His results in 2013 have been a real mixed bag, with a few Top 10’s and a couple of mixed cuts. His recent Masters record is very similar, his last six years he’s went T-8th, Cut, Cut, T-35, T-5th and T-7th. None of his stats really jump off the screen at me; I just hope he doesn’t win the Par 3 competition on Wednesday!
I’m also putting a few quid on Henrik Stenson in the First Round Leader market. Stenson has lots of momentum going into Augusta after his runner up finish at the Shell Houston Open which got him into the Masters by the skin of his teeth. He also had a Top 10 the week before at Bay Hill. Stenson is a player with an awful lot of talent; he’s won seven times on the European Tour and twice in the States. Like Harrington he’s had a quiet few years but he’s a former Player’s Champ and that trend goes well at Augusta. His early season stats make good reading, he leads in Driving Accuracy and Greens In Regulation, lets hope he brings his putter with him too.
I have taken my stats from the PGA Tour website and the prices from Oddschecker, all were up to date at the time of posting.
Be lucky!
Phil Mickelson to win outright @ 11/1 with Paddy Power
Justin Rose each way @ 20/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
Padraig Harrington each way @ 66/1 with Ladbrokes (5 places)
Henrik Stenson each way FRL @ 50/1 with William Hill (5 places)
