Aggression is key for Mahan

Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale

It was a frustrating week in the golf, just past. Garcia looked to be getting a crack at a play off in Qatar, until Chris Wood decided he was fed up with spending lonely nights in the Pancake Factory and finished with an eagle to pip Sergio and Coetzee by a shot. I can’t begrudge Wood the win, just wish he’d have picked a different week. It’s the first time in over five years someone has made eagle to win on the European Tour, Goose was the last in 2007, in Qatar also, just my luck!

Then we go Stateside, where Tiger Woods goes from topping drives one week to winning at a hack cantor the next, horses for courses and all that. A lot of people were understandably quite excited about Tiger’s win but I’m not going to let myself think he can get back to Number One until he dominates around a course that doesn’t suit his eye so well. That’s the 23^rd time he has won on the PGA Tour by four or more shots, that would put him in 27^th position, on the all time PGA Tour win list; ridiculous!

Sneds finished runner-up to Tiger, which wasn’t much use to me as I had him backed to win only. He shot himself out of it on Friday when the bad weather set in on the South Course; he had a good weekend though. And Phil, what can you say about him? He was at his erratic best. I think he worked out that the best way around his current tax problems was to earn as little money as possible!

Anyways, onto this week in Phoenix. The Waste Management is one of the more fun events on the schedule, lots of aggression from the players and lots of interaction with the fans. The stadium course at TPC Scottsdale isn’t a bombers paradise, it’s more risk reward with your approach shots. The last few winners haven’t been long of the tee, Perry *(48^th), Mahan (57^th), Wilson (143^rd) and Stanley (73^rd). *Brackets are their end of year ‘Driving Distance’ ranking, for the year they got their respective win.

My main selection this week is one of the previous winners above. After a solid week at Torrey Pines I expect Hunter Mahan to have a successful week in Phoenix. After missing out on the Ryder Cup last year he will think he has a bit to prove this season. He’s obviously done a bit of work on his wedge game over the off season, although still in January he finds himself top of the tree in the rankings for approach shots of 75-100 yards. That’s a plus for this week. Another plus is that he tends to be very fast out of the traps, he had picked up two wins by the time the Masters came around last year.

My next bet is for a Top 10 finish. The reason for this punt is Kevin Na’s got course form but you wouldn’t trust him to get over the finishing line without leaving the back nine on Sunday littered with pancakes. He’s had three Top 5’s in the past five years. The fact that he’s missed his previous two cuts before coming here doesn’t really bother me, he’s like an Asian Phil Mickelson, inconsistent, but can make birdies for fun. I wonder what his views on taxes are? He’s had missed cuts before coming here in the past. He’s ranked 1^st in approaches from less that 100 yards and 7^th in Total Putting, in 2013, so it doesn’t take Columbo to work out why he’s missed his last two cuts. He’d win the Par 3 tourney at Augusta doing handstands.

Now just to complete the randomness of my blog post this week, I’m doing a First Round Leader (FRL) bet. FRL bets are something I never get involved in, but I know a few of you do like the market. One thing I always think is that it’s best to be out early, I’d say most people have a similar thought process on that. Kevin Streelman is a Scottsdale resident and will have the luxury of sleeping in his own bed for the week. Though he doesn’t have a particularly good record here he is arriving in solid form. In his last outing he finished T-10^th at the Humana Challenge. Stats wise he’s in the Top 10 in GIR (mainly because of his wedge play) and 3^rd in Total Putting. So he’s an each way bet for me in the FRL market.

In the ‘One and Done’ this week I’ve went with Lee Westwood to win the Dubai Desert Classic. Mainly because he’s been pretty vocal regarding the amount of practising he got done in his off-season, since he moved to Florida. Due to the format of the ‘One and Done’ it’s best using him now as he doesn’t play on the European Tour until May again.

Be Lucky!

My Selections:

Hunter Mahan each way @ 35/1 with Stan James

Kevin Na for a Top 10 finish @ 8/1 with Bet365

Kevin Streelman each way for FRL @ 100/1 with Paddy Power, Bet365 & Coral

Lefty to blitz Torrey Pines

The Farmers Insurance Open @ Torrey Pines

It’s a bit of a Wham, Bam, thank you Mam sort of post this week. I usually like to get my blog up on the Tuesday night but it’s been a busy week. The Qatar Masters started today (Wednesday), so I’m just scudding the Farmers Insurance Open this week. I didn't blog on Qatar last year and ended up with a 40/1 winner thanks to Paul Lawrie, so I'm quite content leaving it again this year.

Last week was a disaster; Jamieson was like a Class 5 horse running in a Listed race and Peter Hanson, well, he just missed his kick from the stalls. To be fair to Hanson, only one player outscored him over the weekend, he was two better than the eventual winner. Hanson will be giving a few boys a run for their money this week in Qatar. For the ‘One and Done’ tourney I went for Sergio Garcia, solid start.

This week on the PGA Tour we head to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. A decent field has assembled, including Nikes second string Tiger Woods. Woods is the bookies favourite, but I’m taking him on. Torrey Pines is split into two courses, the South Course, where you scramble for your life then the North Course where you could break par with a half set and a box of Pinnacles. It’s imperative you get a low number on the board on the North Course, as you play the other three rounds (assuming you make the cut) around the South.

My first selection this week started his 2013 season last week at the Humana Challenge where he finished a lot stronger than he started, Friday through Sunday he was a total of 17 under par. Phil Mickelson, like Woods is a bit of a Torrey Pines specialist, with 10 Top 10’s which include three victories. You’ve got to like his chances of scrambling his way around the South Course, though slightly concerned that he might have one of his erratic driving weeks. Everyone knows he’s a birdie machine when on form and can blow holes in the North Course. Fingers crossed!

My second selection is last years winner and current Fed Ex Champ, Brant Snedeker. Sneds (we’re buddies) started what was his most successful season on the PGA Tour with a play off win here last year. He won after Kyle Stanley guaranteed himself a Hall of Fame spot in the Pancake Factory with a triple bogey on the 72^nd hole, to hand Sneds a chance at victory. It was up there with Van de Velde's meltdown at Carnoustie as the most difficult things I’ve ever had to watch. But, fortunate or not, Snedeker still got the W and he went on to win the Tour Championship (subsequently the Fed Ex Cup), ensuring that he won’t have to worry about the kids college funds. Brant has had Top 10’s in his last three visits here and with his putting; he can knock the stuffing out of a few here this week. He was ninth in ‘Strokes gained through Putting’ last year and I expect something similar this week.

This week, as both picks are under 20/1 I’m just slapping my pennies on the nose.

Be Lucky!

My selections:

Phil Mickelson ‘Outright 18/1’ with Paddy Power

Brandt Snedeker ‘Outright’ 14/1 with BetVictor.

Step up in class for Jamieson in Abu Dhabi

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championsip

It’s been an interesting few days in the golf world. Rors finally signs for Nike and Paul McGinley (deservingly) gets the nod to be the 2014 Ryder Cup Captain at Gleneagles.

I also learnt two things; the first being every time I put a stat on my blog it subsequently isn’t a stat anymore, and if you run a successful Twitter campaign you can become a Ryder Cup Captain. This is where you all come in; I expect you to pull out all the stops so that I captain the 2016 team. Thanks in advance. With regards the stat, I put one on my blog last week, which stated that since 1996 the winner of the Sony Open had played Waialae Country Club at least twice prior to victory, in steps Russell Henley to blow that one out of the water. Scott Langley deserves a mention too.

On a serious note regarding the Ryder Cup captaincy. I think the committee made the right choice in the end. However I can’t say I was a fan of how it played out. It looked like Monty would get the vote until McIlroy (most notably) and others took to Twitter to show their support for Paul McGinley; subsequently McGinley got the nod. Although I agree with them that you should only have one opportunity to Captain the team, I think that it came across disrespectful to Monty, who let’s not forget was a winning Captain at Celtic Manor. It would appear that there will be a new procedure put in place in future so that there isn't another saga when voting for the Ryder Cup Captain.

Last weeks selections weren’t great, Pettersson never really got started and Kuchar decided he couldn’t be arsed moving on ‘moving day’. Off the top of my head I think he was the only person in the Top 10 who didn’t break par on Saturday; though he had a solid enough tournament, all things considered. His tie for 5^th just about covers my stakes for last week.

This week we are off to Abu Dhabi for the HSBC Golf Championship and a decent field has been assembled, as usual. The biggest draw will obviously be Tiger and Rory after Rors signed up to Nike this week. He also starred as himself in possibly the cheesiest (though funny) golf ad in history for Nike (watch at the foot of this blog), together with Tiger. Though I think there will be a few boys happy enough to slip under the radar, none more so than Dubai specialist and Ryder Cup hero, Martin Kaymer

I think the winner will probably come from the head of the market, McIlroy, Woods, Kaymer and Rose all have massive chances but I fancy taking them on with some bigger prices and get some decent each way money *crosses fingers*.

First up I’m going with a player very much in form. Although it’s a step up in class, so to speak, I fancy Scott Jamieson to go well again. He’ll be disappointed with how last week finished but he’s playing well and has played well in Dubai before; granted not in this tourney. I loved the pitch he hit at 18 last week, he needed to hole his pitch for eagle and a play off; he pitched it to a couple of inches! He won the weather interrupted Nelson Mandela (36 holes) and had a T-3 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship before his runner up finish at the Volvo Champions event last week. As I said he didn’t play well in this tourney last year but did finish in the Top 5 a couple of weeks later at the Dubai Desert Classic and had a Top 15 finish at the World Tour Championship (end of season), after finishing with a final round 66. I don’t read too much into stats at the start of the year but it should be noted that 5 out of the last 7 years the winner has topped the Par 4 scoring; hitting GIR is a must it seems.

My second pick this week Peter Hanson. He’s bound to be a popular each way alternative. Hansen had a final round to forget here last year, but has gone on to better things since. He had Top 5’s at the next two WGC's before a T-3 at the Masters Tournament. He finished 2012 with victories at the KLM Open and BMW Masters. You can sometimes learn more about a golfer by how they react to disappointment (here last year) than anything else, Hanson reacted like someone who knows he has the potential to be a Top 10 player and contend in the big tourneys against the best in the business; he has McIlroy and Woods to contend with this week.

Before I wrap up I should mention I joined a wee comp this week. Ben Coley of BettingZone fame has decided to run a ‘One-and-done’ competition for the European Tour events this year. The rules are simple, you pick who you think can win each week, but after you use that player once, you can’t use them again. So you got to look ahead and have a bit of a game plan. The winner of the competition will be the person who accumulates the biggest total of tournament earnings from their picks throughout the season. At the time of doing this post I still haven’t decided who I am going to pick, but keep an eye on my Twitter and when I decide who, I’ll post it there. If anyone isn’t following Ben on Twitter you should do so now (@BenColeyGolf), he writes the previews for BettingZone and Sporting Life and is an absolute stat attack, quality follow!

Be Lucky!

My Selections:

Scott Jamieson each way with Paddy Power 66/1 (6 places)

Peter Hanson each way with Boylesports 30/1 (5 places)

Rory and Tiger's new Nike Ad.

The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club

Carl on the ‘witch hunt’ at Waialae

I’m not usually one for New Years resolutions, but this year I decided to make one. Nope, it wasn’t to lose weight (I’m 16 stone), it wasn’t to get a new job (I work in the Civil Service) it was to start writing my golf blog again; priorities and all that!

My last blog post was for the Tour Championship back in September, other than having a bet on Europe (thanks to the US for hitting the Pancake Factory) to win the Ryder Cup I haven’t had a punt on the golf at all. I haven’t really watched much at all either; work took over a little on the run up to Christmas and I didn’t have the motivation to go home and study the form of the golf, especially with the Fall Series and the invite only tourneys.

This week I’m just going to have a bet at the Sony Open. I had a look at the Volvo event but no prices really jumped off the page at me, so I’ll leave that down to the shrewdie tipsters to find the value there.

So, after a bit of a disaster last weekend (of the nature kind) the PGA Tour shifts to Waialae County Club. The course itself is 7,044 yards, par 70. Last year Johnson Wagner took the spoils with a 13 under par total. My first pick this week was in a tie for second, two shots behind.

Carl Pettersson was a popular pick among tipsters for the Champions Tournament and he put in a decent showing. He finished 8^th (Top European) behind the bookies favourite this week, Dustin Johnson. Big Bad DJ got himself and my punting off to a perfect start for the 2013 season. His victory in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions will have pleased the army of punters who backed him ante post to win the Money Title this year.

Anyways back to big Carl. Pettersson, as I said, was tied for 2^nd here last year. That together with his win at Hilton Head and his finish at Kiawah Island suggests he plays seaside (windy) courses well. The most notable difference between the Plantation course and Waialae Country Club is the size of the greens, the Plantation course being larger Bermuda greens and Waialae being a lot smaller. Though Carl’s overall 2012 GIR stat doesn’t fill me full of confidence his Top 5 in GIR here last year does. I giggled at his ‘witch hunt’ comment regarding the banning of the anchored stoke, but feel he can get a couple more W’s before that rule kicks in.

My second pick this week is Matt ‘Kuuuuuuuccchhh’ Kuchar. Kuch didn’t play at Waialae last year but finished T-5 in 2011. I like Kuch as a ball striker, his swing is plenty flat enough, but it works for him and in windy conditions it must be a plus (like DJ this week at Kapalua). Kuch got off to a great start on Sunday (the 2^nd time they tried to start the TOC) only for the scores to be wiped. After a slow start on Monday he finished his tourney off well for a Top 10 finish (granted there were only 30 players). What I liked about Kuch at Kapalua was his attitude to the elements that they had to content with; much like Fowler he smiled and enjoyed the challenge whilst Poults (most notable) spat his dummy out; more than once.

I didn’t get a chance to do a blog post for the Tournament of Champions but did tweet my pick. I narrowed it down to Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney, thankfully I went with the latter and a nice 14/1 winner was very welcome to kick off the 2013 season.

If you are looking elsewhere this week you may wish to consider the following – Since 1996, every winner has played Waialae Country Club at least twice (stat from @Golf_Stats on Twitter) – all the best to the 23 Web.com tour players this week.

Be lucky!

My Selections:

Carl Pettersson each way @ 20/1 with Paddy Power
Matt Kuchar each way @ 18/1 with Paddy Power