El Niño won't have a hangover in Thailand

Thailand Golf Championship

Well my first blog of the 2014 season didn't have much success. I said it on Twitter and I'll say it again, I will never back Jbe Kruger again, he's like a Kamikaze pilot at times. Brutal viewing. Last week I didn't do a blog as I didn't think there was much point with the small fields and I thought the market favs would probably win. I did two bets in the end - the first being a trixie on Migual Angel Jimenez (Hong Kong Open), Henrik Stenson (Nedbank Challenge) and Tiger Woods (World Challenge). The second was a double on Sergio Garcia (Nedbank) and Graeme McDowell (World Challenge. To say I was frustrated with Tiger ruining any chance of a return is an understatement. I think he was 1.03 on Betfair when holding a four shot lead with eight holes to play. Add the fact that three of the holes left were Par 5's and his closest challenger is one of the shortest hitters on tour (granted one of the best wedge players) I think I am entitled to have a moan. With that said, you got to tip your hat to Zach Johnson, he played well all day and his wedge from the drop zone was sublime. Tiger hit two great bunker shots on 18, but then missed a putt that the old Tiger simply didn't miss. It was interesting to hear a view of his comments after, where he said he was scared of pushing it; the old Tiger would never of let a negative thought like that enter his mind.

Zach Johnson's wedge last week

On a brighter note I really enjoyed watching Sergio's charge on Sunday at the Nedbank. Obviously I'm very biased when it comes to Sergio as I'm blinded a little by the talent he has and usually choose to ignore his poor attitude at times. But it was vintage Sergio last week in South Africa and he only really hit one bad shot all day Sunday (tee shot at 16). I'm keeping it simple this week and sticking with him for the Thailand Open.

As most people know Sergio is a guy who plays well when filled with confidence, so he tends to play well in consecutive tournaments. When he had his last win on the PGA Tour (2012 Wydham Champ) he was third the following week and his last wins in Europe came when he won back to back in Spain at the end of the 2011 season. He was 4th in this last year, though to put that into context he was turning at Becher's Brook when Charl was getting hosed down. Sergio had a decent run of form from the Fed-Ex through the HSBC Champions event and then last week when he really did look back to his old self.

Of the others playing this week I would think the winner will come from one of the market principles. As I mentioned last week I backed Stenson and for the most part he didn't seem to find that other gear that he had in the run of the 2013 season. The fella is bound to be itching to spend all those dollars and euros and I think he'll have a solid finish again this week without really challenging. Schwartzel obviously won this at a hack cantor last year and he's got an obvious chance but he doesn't seem to have his 'A' game with him at the moment and if I am to back someone at 5/1 I want to be sure he's got everything but the kitchen sink with him. Of the Asian players I suppose Aphibarnrat and Messawat are the two I'd be most interested in but I really fancy Sergio to get the W this week and I'm just sticking with him.

My selection:

Sergio Garcia to win 7/1 2 pts (General)

Be lucky! 

Kruger to get the W in his own back yard

Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek

Is someone doing a spread on the amount of pictures the players tweet from Leopard Creek, this week? I've already saw a few this morning (Monday) before I set off for work. The scenery is unbelievable; in the same league as Crans-sur-Sierre, but for different reasons. With Leopard Creek right next door to Kruger National Park the wildlife are everywhere. I hadn't done a blog before in this tourney, so I had to have a little look for some info on the course and found myself more interested in the wildlife that are housed (can I say housed?) on the course than the actual course itself! We have 'Harry the Hippo' in the lake at 16 along with a number of crocodiles in the dam at holes 5, 7 & 16. It would be interesting to see how many safari holidays are booked on the back of watching the golf here each year!

For those that aren't familiar with the course itself, here's some info - it's a Gary Player design which opened in 1996 and measures 7326 yards from the back sticks. There's a lot of water hazards, ranging from lakes to brooks to a river. The latter both feature in the signature hole; number 13. The rough is Kikuya grass and the greens are Creeping Bent. Past winners include Charl Schwartzel, Garth Mulroy, Pablo Martin (twice) and Ernie Els.


This isn't a tournament that I want to get to heavily involved in, so I'm firing just the two bullets. I think most people will be taking on Schwartzel at the prices. Yes it's his favourite course, yes he won here at a cantor last year, but 7/2, really? He was a bigger price coming into it last year after he lapped the field in Thailand and this time round he faltered with 13 holes to go last week. Maybe it was the pressure of trying to win his national championship, but it was enough to suggest 7/2 is too skinny.


First up is Jbe Kruger. He should be a popular choice after his finish last week. Kruger opened with a 65 last week and closed with one too, to move finish 2nd. He's one of 60 odd South Africans playing this week, many of whom I must admit I don't know much about! Last week Kruger's putting was his strength, whilst his driving was a little off. He's had nibbles of form in South Africa on the European Tour (a few Top 10's) but hasn't been in much form of late; until last week anyway. I'm hoping he kicks on again from last Sundays round and I'm happy to take his price in this sort of field.

Second up and more of a shot in dark, sort of pick, is Steve Webster. This guy is either hot or cold, he doesn't do consistent it seems. At the price and the fact he has a little bit of form in South Africa, in not very many starts I'm willing to give him a go. He was 7th here last year in what was a really good start to the season (he had three other Top 10's from South Africa through Dubai). After his good start though, he had a quiet season and his next Top 10 didn't arrive until Italy in September. I'm hoping he fancies another quick start to the season and at his price I'm happy to have a few quid each way.

On my sabbatical from golf blogging I've been keenly following the SkyLife podcast which is produced by Ben Coley (Sporting Life), John Rhodes (Sky Bet) and usually one other guest. They give their analysis on the previous week's golf and their insight on the up and coming tournaments. It gives you a chance to hear from the bookies side of the things for once; like who they're out to get! The link is usually posted on Twitter each week or if you have a tablet you can get the podcast from iTunes and it automatically downloads for you each week.

That's me for this week, I'll have a more detailed write up next week for the World Challenge. Good luck with whoever you go with.

My Selections:

Jbe Kruger @ 45/1 (1pt each way) with Stan James
Steve Webster @ 125/1 (0.5pt each way) with Sky Bet

Be Lucky!

Course info from www.europeantour.com
Prices from www.oddschecker.com

Lefty to outshine Tiger at Augusta

The 2013 Masters – Augusta National

It’s been a strange year on the PGA Tour. Every other week there seems to be a weather delay with late finishes and the Yanks have won fourteen straight events on the tour since it kicked off in Kapalua, in January. Gambling wise it started off well for me, I had DJ in Hawaii but it’s been quiet since, granted I’ve only bet in five other tournaments but still not good! I’ve been planning to start this Masters blog for a while, but I kept finding an excuse not to, so blog number six of the year is below.

Tiger at the Par 3 12th

The obvious starting point this year is with the new World Number 1, old shagger himself, Tiger Woods. My view on Tiger was (and still is) that he’d never be back dominating the way he did a decade ago, but he could get back winning regularly again. The reason for that view is that Tiger has certain courses he continues to play well, regardless of form; I call them his ‘Hen Runs’. Augusta, unlike Bay Hill and Doral is not one of his hen runs. It’s been eight years since he won his last Masters, he may be a four-time champ but I can’t have him at the same price (with most firms) at Augusta, as he was when defending his title (7 of them) at Bay Hill. The other thing that has helped Tiger back to the top was his safe shot. When in doubt he opens his stance and plays a cut, that isn’t how to play Augusta in my opinion. With all that said, I wouldn’t put anyone off Tiger, I'm just pointing out the lack of value in the price. Tiger gained 11.2 shots on the field through his putting at Bay Hill and if he continues to average 25/26 putts, it could be lights out early. If you like looking at trends – there’s two notable ones; Tiger’s won his last two starts before the Masters once (2001), and he won the Masters, but the other is he’s won three times before the Masters on three occasions and never won the Masters that year; something’s got to give! Also World Number 1’s don’t have a great major record whilst holding that position, since 1986 when the OWGR began, only 13 majors have been won by the current Number 1 ranked player; Tiger has 11 of those.

Will we see this on Sunday?

My Masters Picks

Phil the thrill

My number one pick for the Masters is Phil Mickelson. True to form I missed out on his W at Phoenix by backing him the week before at Torrey Pines and couldn’t pull the trigger again. Though as Ben Coley (of Betting Zone and Twitter ranting fame) pointed out to me after (much use then), he seldom has good form before his wins. As everyone is aware Micko is a big fan of playing the week before a major, he likes to use the opportunity to hone his skills for the following week. The week before his four major victories have been a mixed bunch; he was T-13th in the 2010 Shell Houston Open (1^st Masters), 1^st in the 2006 Bell South Classic (1^st Masters), T-10^th in The International (1^st PGA Championship) and T-16^th in the 2004 Bell South Classic before winning his first Masters title. He wasn’t impressed with the schedule change this year and isn’t playing the Valero Texas Open this week, but was T-16^th at the Shell Houston the week before. The outcome of Phil’s week is seemingly down to how he drives the ball and how he putts, very much like Tiger in that aspect. That said, Phil has the ability to turn certain sixes into fours. The funniest interview of the year was after his up n’ down from the cart path at the WGC Cadillac Championship, I’ve posted a link below if you haven’t saw it before. Although the interview was comical for his ‘playing lesson with the Pro’, it was also informative with regards his confidence with his new artillery in the bag and his comment about ‘keeping the ball in play’. As Phil said, it’s not something you’d hear him say too often. I hope he adapts that mindset this week! The negative part to Micko’s game is his putting. He’s been messing around with how he grips the putter, the actual putter grip and different putters; it doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence. I’ve lost count of how many times he’s left himself with a ‘tap in’ of a couple of feet and missed, smashing it at the back of the cup doesn’t always work, big Clarkey had the same mentality a few years ago when it came to two footers. It seems an age ago that Phil had a putt for a 59 at Phoenix, but that's what he can do to golf courses, no shock that he's ranked 2nd in birdie average this season.

'You'd need to be an idiot to open the blade'

My second pick is Justin Rose. He’s got a tad short in the betting since his runner up finish to Tiger at Bay Hill but I still think he’s backable. Rose, like Tiger has enrolled the help of Sean Foley to further develop his game. He hasn’t been outside the Top 20 on either side of the pond this calendar year, with the most notable finishes being the runner up finishes in Abu Dhabi and Bay Hill. When I had a look at his stats I was surprised to see he’s 9^th on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance, I knew he wasn’t short but averaging 301 yards off the tee this year is impressive. Other notable stats are his ‘Scrambling’ – which he’s ranked 3^rd in, and he tops the rankings in Sand Saves this year. What I like most about Rose’s game when he’s on song, is his iron play, especially his mid to short irons, always gives himself lots of birdie chances. Unfortunately like Mickelson he has a tendency to get a very cold putter and if he wants to compete this week he needs to hole his fair share. He has a decent enough Masters record, he was T-8^th last year and I can see him bang there in the finish this year. The fact he leads the tour on Back 9 scoring average is another pleasing stat, that said the pressure on Masters Sunday isn’t something he’s faced so far this season.

Game face

My third pick in Padraig Harrington. As I do this blog Harrington is currently playing in the Valero Texas Open, but I had already decided he would be my final pick so I’m going to stick with him now, regardless of his finish in Texas. For years I had a real dislike for Harrington, not for his constant ‘tinkering’ of the golf swing which a few dislike him for, but because he got in the way of Sergio winning a major or two! Padraig is a three time major champ, but has not contended on a regular occurrence since. He’s a funny character; a psychologist would have a field day with him, but when he’s on, he knows how to get the job done. His results in 2013 have been a real mixed bag, with a few Top 10’s and a couple of mixed cuts. His recent Masters record is very similar, his last six years he’s went T-8^th, Cut, Cut, T-35, T-5^th and T-7^th. None of his stats really jump off the screen at me; I just hope he doesn’t win the Par 3 competition on Wednesday!

I’m also putting a few quid on Henrik Stenson in the First Round Leader market. Stenson has lots of momentum going into Augusta after his runner up finish at the Shell Houston Open which got him into the Masters by the skin of his teeth. He also had a Top 10 the week before at Bay Hill. Stenson is a player with an awful lot of talent; he’s won seven times on the European Tour and twice in the States. Like Harrington he’s had a quiet few years but he’s a former Player’s Champ and that trend goes well at Augusta. His early season stats make good reading, he leads in Driving Accuracy and Greens In Regulation, lets hope he brings his putter with him too.

I have taken my stats from the PGA Tour website and the prices from Oddschecker, all were up to date at the time of posting.

Be lucky!

Phil Mickelson to win outright @ 11/1 with Paddy Power

Justin Rose each way @ 20/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)

Padraig Harrington each way @ 66/1 with Ladbrokes (5 places)

Henrik Stenson each way FRL @ 50/1 with William Hill (5 places)

It could be lights out early for McIlroy!

WGC Accenture Match play at Dove Mountain

I haven’t done a blog for the past two weeks due to laziness and not having the time, and I haven’t really had a punt either. A few of the fellas (tipsters) I follow on Twitter had a couple of nice winners, which is good. This week we have the Accenture Match Play at The Ritz-Carlton Golf Club at Dove Mountain, Arizona. Some people, mainly tipsters, think this is a bit of a lottery and tend to stay away from it as a punting event, which is fair enough. The problem (the reason I love it) is that you’re playing the man, not the course. If it was a 72 hole stroke event you’d be happy to see your player jockeying for position over the weekend, however, in this event if you start slow, or just come across somebody hot, you could be on a flight home on the Wednesday evening. Like last year I’ve decided to do the bracket betting and maybe have a couple of doubles or trebles on the matches during the tourney.

Bobby Jones bracket

This bracket seems to be the most open, well according to the bookies anyway. The big names in this one are McIlroy, Fowler, Big bad DJ, Gmac, Harrington, Bubba and Schwartzel. The most interesting part is that the four Irish guys have been drawn against each other. I expect Rors to eventually outclass Lowry but I can’t call the other game. Of the other matches I expect DJ to win, he's been poor of late but mainly because of running up big scores at holes, though that's less costly in Match Play, that said, I see a few fancy Noren. A lot of people like Schwartzel's chances this week and he’s the main danger to my pick in this bracket. Rickie Fowler has a far from an ideal draw on paper, with Rors, DJ and Gmac all potential opponents, but when you look closer, he could have two guys that are bang out of form and another who could still be rusty. I like Fowler as a match player, though knocked out early last year; his game is more ideal than most for this format.

Gary Player bracket

Now, the problem with the brackets is they can throw together players that you may want to keep apart for outright betting reasons. After watching Hunter Mahan last weekend, the defending champ went straight on to my shortlist. But since the Ryder Cup I’ve had Martin Kaymer firmly in mind for this event, alas, they get put in the same bracket. In this ultra competitive bracket they also have Tiger, Westy and Dufner to contend with. I expect a big showing from Tiger this week, although his course form isn’t good, he was impressive at Torrey Pines and it should be interesting to see if he can take that form to a course he finds a lot more difficult, I suspect a lot of punters will be taking him on at the prices in each of his matches. I really can't split Mahan and Kaymer so I’ll hedge my bets and put a few quid on each.

Ben Hogan bracket

Out of all the brackets this is the one that will be the easiest to win. I don’t think it has the same depth as the others. Oozty, Kuch, Sergio, Rose, Ernie and Haas…actually when I roll the names off my tongue, it’s actually competitive enough! All tidy golfers on their day, but they’ll all know that the bracket is there for the taking. My pick in this bracket is Sergio Garcia. Too many times I’ve backed him because my heart ruled my head, but this time I’m more than sure it’s the head talking. He went backwards after a promising start last week at Riviera but has been in solid form (hasn’t been out of Top 20 in last 7 events worldwide) and he loves Match Play.

Sam Snead bracket

This bracket is the one I’m most confident with, cue the first round disaster! Luuuuuke, Poults, Watney, Scott and Stricks are the main acts in this one but I fancy one past champion to out dual another to win this bracket. Luuuuuke (sorry I can’t help myself) was the 2011 champ here and was on his seasonal debut last week where he hopefully shifted all rust from his game, he didn’t seem to have too much! It won’t surprise me if Poults is wearing his Ryder Cup outfit for motivation (jokes) and I expect him to be in the last eight against Donald. 

For my ‘one and done’ this week I’m going to go for Rickie Fowler. Mainly because I can see him going deep in the tourney and I don’t know when I’d use him again anyway (Open did cross my mind). The last two weeks haven’t been good for me in the competition so really need a big week, no pressure Rickie!

Be Lucky!

My Selections:

Luke Donald to win the Sam Snead bracket @ 9/2 with Will Hill

Sergio Garcia to win the Ben Hogan bracket @ 15/2 with Bet 365

Hunter Mahan to win the Gary Player bracket @ 8/1 with Bet 365

Martin Kaymer to win the Gary Player bracket @ 10/1 with Paddy Power

Rickie Fowler to win the Bobby Jones bracket @ 12/1 with Bet Victor

Rickie Fowler to win the WGC Outright @ 66/1 each way with Ladbrokes

Aggression is key for Mahan

Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale

It was a frustrating week in the golf, just past. Garcia looked to be getting a crack at a play off in Qatar, until Chris Wood decided he was fed up with spending lonely nights in the Pancake Factory and finished with an eagle to pip Sergio and Coetzee by a shot. I can’t begrudge Wood the win, just wish he’d have picked a different week. It’s the first time in over five years someone has made eagle to win on the European Tour, Goose was the last in 2007, in Qatar also, just my luck!

Then we go Stateside, where Tiger Woods goes from topping drives one week to winning at a hack cantor the next, horses for courses and all that. A lot of people were understandably quite excited about Tiger’s win but I’m not going to let myself think he can get back to Number One until he dominates around a course that doesn’t suit his eye so well. That’s the 23^rd time he has won on the PGA Tour by four or more shots, that would put him in 27^th position, on the all time PGA Tour win list; ridiculous!

Sneds finished runner-up to Tiger, which wasn’t much use to me as I had him backed to win only. He shot himself out of it on Friday when the bad weather set in on the South Course; he had a good weekend though. And Phil, what can you say about him? He was at his erratic best. I think he worked out that the best way around his current tax problems was to earn as little money as possible!

Anyways, onto this week in Phoenix. The Waste Management is one of the more fun events on the schedule, lots of aggression from the players and lots of interaction with the fans. The stadium course at TPC Scottsdale isn’t a bombers paradise, it’s more risk reward with your approach shots. The last few winners haven’t been long of the tee, Perry *(48^th), Mahan (57^th), Wilson (143^rd) and Stanley (73^rd). *Brackets are their end of year ‘Driving Distance’ ranking, for the year they got their respective win.

My main selection this week is one of the previous winners above. After a solid week at Torrey Pines I expect Hunter Mahan to have a successful week in Phoenix. After missing out on the Ryder Cup last year he will think he has a bit to prove this season. He’s obviously done a bit of work on his wedge game over the off season, although still in January he finds himself top of the tree in the rankings for approach shots of 75-100 yards. That’s a plus for this week. Another plus is that he tends to be very fast out of the traps, he had picked up two wins by the time the Masters came around last year.

My next bet is for a Top 10 finish. The reason for this punt is Kevin Na’s got course form but you wouldn’t trust him to get over the finishing line without leaving the back nine on Sunday littered with pancakes. He’s had three Top 5’s in the past five years. The fact that he’s missed his previous two cuts before coming here doesn’t really bother me, he’s like an Asian Phil Mickelson, inconsistent, but can make birdies for fun. I wonder what his views on taxes are? He’s had missed cuts before coming here in the past. He’s ranked 1^st in approaches from less that 100 yards and 7^th in Total Putting, in 2013, so it doesn’t take Columbo to work out why he’s missed his last two cuts. He’d win the Par 3 tourney at Augusta doing handstands.

Now just to complete the randomness of my blog post this week, I’m doing a First Round Leader (FRL) bet. FRL bets are something I never get involved in, but I know a few of you do like the market. One thing I always think is that it’s best to be out early, I’d say most people have a similar thought process on that. Kevin Streelman is a Scottsdale resident and will have the luxury of sleeping in his own bed for the week. Though he doesn’t have a particularly good record here he is arriving in solid form. In his last outing he finished T-10^th at the Humana Challenge. Stats wise he’s in the Top 10 in GIR (mainly because of his wedge play) and 3^rd in Total Putting. So he’s an each way bet for me in the FRL market.

In the ‘One and Done’ this week I’ve went with Lee Westwood to win the Dubai Desert Classic. Mainly because he’s been pretty vocal regarding the amount of practising he got done in his off-season, since he moved to Florida. Due to the format of the ‘One and Done’ it’s best using him now as he doesn’t play on the European Tour until May again.

Be Lucky!

My Selections:

Hunter Mahan each way @ 35/1 with Stan James

Kevin Na for a Top 10 finish @ 8/1 with Bet365

Kevin Streelman each way for FRL @ 100/1 with Paddy Power, Bet365 & Coral

Lefty to blitz Torrey Pines

The Farmers Insurance Open @ Torrey Pines

It’s a bit of a Wham, Bam, thank you Mam sort of post this week. I usually like to get my blog up on the Tuesday night but it’s been a busy week. The Qatar Masters started today (Wednesday), so I’m just scudding the Farmers Insurance Open this week. I didn't blog on Qatar last year and ended up with a 40/1 winner thanks to Paul Lawrie, so I'm quite content leaving it again this year.

Last week was a disaster; Jamieson was like a Class 5 horse running in a Listed race and Peter Hanson, well, he just missed his kick from the stalls. To be fair to Hanson, only one player outscored him over the weekend, he was two better than the eventual winner. Hanson will be giving a few boys a run for their money this week in Qatar. For the ‘One and Done’ tourney I went for Sergio Garcia, solid start.

This week on the PGA Tour we head to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. A decent field has assembled, including Nikes second string Tiger Woods. Woods is the bookies favourite, but I’m taking him on. Torrey Pines is split into two courses, the South Course, where you scramble for your life then the North Course where you could break par with a half set and a box of Pinnacles. It’s imperative you get a low number on the board on the North Course, as you play the other three rounds (assuming you make the cut) around the South.

My first selection this week started his 2013 season last week at the Humana Challenge where he finished a lot stronger than he started, Friday through Sunday he was a total of 17 under par. Phil Mickelson, like Woods is a bit of a Torrey Pines specialist, with 10 Top 10’s which include three victories. You’ve got to like his chances of scrambling his way around the South Course, though slightly concerned that he might have one of his erratic driving weeks. Everyone knows he’s a birdie machine when on form and can blow holes in the North Course. Fingers crossed!

My second selection is last years winner and current Fed Ex Champ, Brant Snedeker. Sneds (we’re buddies) started what was his most successful season on the PGA Tour with a play off win here last year. He won after Kyle Stanley guaranteed himself a Hall of Fame spot in the Pancake Factory with a triple bogey on the 72^nd hole, to hand Sneds a chance at victory. It was up there with Van de Velde's meltdown at Carnoustie as the most difficult things I’ve ever had to watch. But, fortunate or not, Snedeker still got the W and he went on to win the Tour Championship (subsequently the Fed Ex Cup), ensuring that he won’t have to worry about the kids college funds. Brant has had Top 10’s in his last three visits here and with his putting; he can knock the stuffing out of a few here this week. He was ninth in ‘Strokes gained through Putting’ last year and I expect something similar this week.

This week, as both picks are under 20/1 I’m just slapping my pennies on the nose.

Be Lucky!

My selections:

Phil Mickelson ‘Outright 18/1’ with Paddy Power

Brandt Snedeker ‘Outright’ 14/1 with BetVictor.

Step up in class for Jamieson in Abu Dhabi

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championsip

It’s been an interesting few days in the golf world. Rors finally signs for Nike and Paul McGinley (deservingly) gets the nod to be the 2014 Ryder Cup Captain at Gleneagles.

I also learnt two things; the first being every time I put a stat on my blog it subsequently isn’t a stat anymore, and if you run a successful Twitter campaign you can become a Ryder Cup Captain. This is where you all come in; I expect you to pull out all the stops so that I captain the 2016 team. Thanks in advance. With regards the stat, I put one on my blog last week, which stated that since 1996 the winner of the Sony Open had played Waialae Country Club at least twice prior to victory, in steps Russell Henley to blow that one out of the water. Scott Langley deserves a mention too.

On a serious note regarding the Ryder Cup captaincy. I think the committee made the right choice in the end. However I can’t say I was a fan of how it played out. It looked like Monty would get the vote until McIlroy (most notably) and others took to Twitter to show their support for Paul McGinley; subsequently McGinley got the nod. Although I agree with them that you should only have one opportunity to Captain the team, I think that it came across disrespectful to Monty, who let’s not forget was a winning Captain at Celtic Manor. It would appear that there will be a new procedure put in place in future so that there isn't another saga when voting for the Ryder Cup Captain.

Last weeks selections weren’t great, Pettersson never really got started and Kuchar decided he couldn’t be arsed moving on ‘moving day’. Off the top of my head I think he was the only person in the Top 10 who didn’t break par on Saturday; though he had a solid enough tournament, all things considered. His tie for 5^th just about covers my stakes for last week.

This week we are off to Abu Dhabi for the HSBC Golf Championship and a decent field has been assembled, as usual. The biggest draw will obviously be Tiger and Rory after Rors signed up to Nike this week. He also starred as himself in possibly the cheesiest (though funny) golf ad in history for Nike (watch at the foot of this blog), together with Tiger. Though I think there will be a few boys happy enough to slip under the radar, none more so than Dubai specialist and Ryder Cup hero, Martin Kaymer

I think the winner will probably come from the head of the market, McIlroy, Woods, Kaymer and Rose all have massive chances but I fancy taking them on with some bigger prices and get some decent each way money *crosses fingers*.

First up I’m going with a player very much in form. Although it’s a step up in class, so to speak, I fancy Scott Jamieson to go well again. He’ll be disappointed with how last week finished but he’s playing well and has played well in Dubai before; granted not in this tourney. I loved the pitch he hit at 18 last week, he needed to hole his pitch for eagle and a play off; he pitched it to a couple of inches! He won the weather interrupted Nelson Mandela (36 holes) and had a T-3 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship before his runner up finish at the Volvo Champions event last week. As I said he didn’t play well in this tourney last year but did finish in the Top 5 a couple of weeks later at the Dubai Desert Classic and had a Top 15 finish at the World Tour Championship (end of season), after finishing with a final round 66. I don’t read too much into stats at the start of the year but it should be noted that 5 out of the last 7 years the winner has topped the Par 4 scoring; hitting GIR is a must it seems.

My second pick this week Peter Hanson. He’s bound to be a popular each way alternative. Hansen had a final round to forget here last year, but has gone on to better things since. He had Top 5’s at the next two WGC's before a T-3 at the Masters Tournament. He finished 2012 with victories at the KLM Open and BMW Masters. You can sometimes learn more about a golfer by how they react to disappointment (here last year) than anything else, Hanson reacted like someone who knows he has the potential to be a Top 10 player and contend in the big tourneys against the best in the business; he has McIlroy and Woods to contend with this week.

Before I wrap up I should mention I joined a wee comp this week. Ben Coley of BettingZone fame has decided to run a ‘One-and-done’ competition for the European Tour events this year. The rules are simple, you pick who you think can win each week, but after you use that player once, you can’t use them again. So you got to look ahead and have a bit of a game plan. The winner of the competition will be the person who accumulates the biggest total of tournament earnings from their picks throughout the season. At the time of doing this post I still haven’t decided who I am going to pick, but keep an eye on my Twitter and when I decide who, I’ll post it there. If anyone isn’t following Ben on Twitter you should do so now (@BenColeyGolf), he writes the previews for BettingZone and Sporting Life and is an absolute stat attack, quality follow!

Be Lucky!

My Selections:

Scott Jamieson each way with Paddy Power 66/1 (6 places)

Peter Hanson each way with Boylesports 30/1 (5 places)

Rory and Tiger's new Nike Ad.

The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club

Carl on the ‘witch hunt’ at Waialae

I’m not usually one for New Years resolutions, but this year I decided to make one. Nope, it wasn’t to lose weight (I’m 16 stone), it wasn’t to get a new job (I work in the Civil Service) it was to start writing my golf blog again; priorities and all that!

My last blog post was for the Tour Championship back in September, other than having a bet on Europe (thanks to the US for hitting the Pancake Factory) to win the Ryder Cup I haven’t had a punt on the golf at all. I haven’t really watched much at all either; work took over a little on the run up to Christmas and I didn’t have the motivation to go home and study the form of the golf, especially with the Fall Series and the invite only tourneys.

This week I’m just going to have a bet at the Sony Open. I had a look at the Volvo event but no prices really jumped off the page at me, so I’ll leave that down to the shrewdie tipsters to find the value there.

So, after a bit of a disaster last weekend (of the nature kind) the PGA Tour shifts to Waialae County Club. The course itself is 7,044 yards, par 70. Last year Johnson Wagner took the spoils with a 13 under par total. My first pick this week was in a tie for second, two shots behind.

Carl Pettersson was a popular pick among tipsters for the Champions Tournament and he put in a decent showing. He finished 8^th (Top European) behind the bookies favourite this week, Dustin Johnson. Big Bad DJ got himself and my punting off to a perfect start for the 2013 season. His victory in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions will have pleased the army of punters who backed him ante post to win the Money Title this year.

Anyways back to big Carl. Pettersson, as I said, was tied for 2^nd here last year. That together with his win at Hilton Head and his finish at Kiawah Island suggests he plays seaside (windy) courses well. The most notable difference between the Plantation course and Waialae Country Club is the size of the greens, the Plantation course being larger Bermuda greens and Waialae being a lot smaller. Though Carl’s overall 2012 GIR stat doesn’t fill me full of confidence his Top 5 in GIR here last year does. I giggled at his ‘witch hunt’ comment regarding the banning of the anchored stoke, but feel he can get a couple more W’s before that rule kicks in.

My second pick this week is Matt ‘Kuuuuuuuccchhh’ Kuchar. Kuch didn’t play at Waialae last year but finished T-5 in 2011. I like Kuch as a ball striker, his swing is plenty flat enough, but it works for him and in windy conditions it must be a plus (like DJ this week at Kapalua). Kuch got off to a great start on Sunday (the 2^nd time they tried to start the TOC) only for the scores to be wiped. After a slow start on Monday he finished his tourney off well for a Top 10 finish (granted there were only 30 players). What I liked about Kuch at Kapalua was his attitude to the elements that they had to content with; much like Fowler he smiled and enjoyed the challenge whilst Poults (most notable) spat his dummy out; more than once.

I didn’t get a chance to do a blog post for the Tournament of Champions but did tweet my pick. I narrowed it down to Dustin Johnson and Nick Watney, thankfully I went with the latter and a nice 14/1 winner was very welcome to kick off the 2013 season.

If you are looking elsewhere this week you may wish to consider the following – Since 1996, every winner has played Waialae Country Club at least twice (stat from @Golf_Stats on Twitter) – all the best to the 23 Web.com tour players this week.

Be lucky!

My Selections:

Carl Pettersson each way @ 20/1 with Paddy Power
Matt Kuchar each way @ 18/1 with Paddy Power