Is Tiger 'Bomb Proof' at Firestone this week?

WGC Bridgestone at Firestone Country Club

This week we have the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club. It’s one of the World Golf Championships and has no cut, which means for the slow starters you’re never too far back, unless you’re too far back! *giggles*.

 It’s a tournament that Tiger Woods used to win when he felt like it (winner in ’99, ’00, ’01, ’05, ’06, ’07, 09). However he has put in a poor showing the last couple of years (T-78 in ’10, T-37 last year). Although it’s fair to say Tiger’s game wasn’t in the same shape as it has been this year. His three wins this year have all came in familiar territory to him, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Congressional, multiple winner at each course. So it’s quite clear he plays the same courses well. Some people might say 5/1 is short, roll back a few years and you would have been lucky to get 5/2 at Firestone. If you aren’t convinced that Tiger is value at 5s and would rather take him on you should probably strike your bet with Paddy Power on their phone app. If Tiger Woods wins Paddy Power will give all losing punters a free bet to the value of their stake for the PGA Championship for next week. If you fancy this and don’t have a Paddy Power account you can click the banner on the right side of my page and set up an account and get up to a £50 free bet.

Tiger Wood's smiling at a Presser (pretty sure I should of paid for this pic)

On the basis that I think Tiger will get the win on Sunday I am going to do my each way alternatives in the ‘Without Tiger’ market. Paddy Power and Sky Bet are doing markets on this and it gives you a strong possibility of getting paid out on two winners on Sunday. Like most golf fans that enjoy a punt, after the Open I decided Adam Scott was the logical bet for the Bridgestone. Scott is the defending champ here, he hit the ball beautifully for 68 holes at the Open and he looked nailed on for his first major championship entering the back nine at Lytham, but it all went wrong for him. Truth be told I was shouting for Ernie in the final few holes but it wasn’t enjoyable to watch Scott throw it away (finished with four straight bogeys). I was surprised to see people comparing his back nine to McIlroy’s at the Masters (2011), it wasn’t! McIlroy had a meltdown; Scott together with Stevie Williams made poor decisions at bad times. To be honest I think Williams should have taken some criticism (especially for the tee shot on 18) but he got off scot-free (I refuse to apologise for that glorious pun). Anyways, although I think he has a great chance I won’t be backing him at a best price 18/1. I wanted bigger, I expected bigger. If he was 25/1 he’d probably be my main pick but it’s funny how your mind works when looking at prices, few points too short, and I’m out.

From a man who should of won his first major this season to a man who did. My first each way alternative to Tiger is Bubba Watson. The man is a bit of a legend in my eyes, plays golf his own way, doesn’t take lessons (where would you even start?) and for the most part (unless in France) has a carefree attitude on the course. I think it was to be expected that his performances after the Masters would be a little subdued. Not only did he win his first major (in a play off) but just before that he and his wife Angie adopted a baby (Caleb). So it’s fair to say he’s had quite a year! With Firestone measuring 7,400 yards it should suit a ‘big hitter’, Tiger was the ‘big hitter’ for the majority of his wins here. Bubba’s ranks 1^st in Driving Distance’ and not surprisingly considering he wedges it to most Par 4’s is 1^st in Greens in Regulation this year. Bubba has played here twice and notched up a couple of solid Top 25s but it should be noted he lead after a 64 in his opening round in 2010. Other than his Masters win he has had two other second place finishes this season, one was at the Cadillac Championship, so he picks the big money tourneys to play well! Hopefully he will win a lot more dollaaaa come Sunday, he needs it, it’s expensive raising a child, well so the 'owl doll' (*in a Northern Ireland accent*) told me anyway!

The caricature that Bubba uses as his Twitter avatar

I’m sticking to the big hitters with my second and final alternative to Mr Woods. Dustin Johnson was my highest placed pick at the Open Championship, unfortunately for him the rest of my picks were crap and his 9^th place finish won the honours. I’m adamant DJ is going to pick up another win this year (fingers crossed for Kiawah Island next week) and I am determined to have my money decorating the mahogany when he does. At Firestone his low round, like Bubba’s, came in 2010, in the shape of a 65 on the Saturday. His three appearances have been solid with a couple of Top 25s, but it is a course that should suit and I think his game is ticking along nicely. The thing with DJ is getting a couple of aspects of his game working well at the same time, if it comes together he’ll be bang there and if Tiger falters he can pick up a big prize before he heads off to Kiawah Island. 

Dustin Johnson

I am sure most of you who read my blog know by now; I don’t claim to be a ‘tipster’. I do a write up on the golfers who I am backing myself; if you read my blog and think there’s a little truth to what I am saying by all means have a punt. I say this, as this week due to my betting in the ‘W/O Tiger’ market I am going to write up my staking plan beside my bets. It’s straightforward and most of you will say it’s a pretty obvious one but I thought I’d do it anyway.

My Selections are:

Tiger Woods @ 5/1 with Will Hill (3 pt win)

Bubba Watson @ 33/1 with Bet Victor (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Bubba Watson @ 25/1 ‘W/O Tiger’ with Sky Bet (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Dustin Johnson @ 35/1 with Stan James (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Dustin Johnson @ 25/1 ‘W/O Tiger’ with Paddy Power (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Will it be a 16th different Major Champ in a row come Sunday?

2012 Open Championship at Royal Lytham and St Anne’s

This week Royal Lytham and St Anne’s’ hosts the 141^st Open Championship. The famous championship has been played here ten times previously and there are some illustrious winners; Seve won twice (’79, ’88), Player won in ’74 and Bobby Jones won in 1926. The most recent victor was David Duval in 2001 when he joined a long list of players to win a major and then disappear (last spotted in a Burger King in April 2004), I joke! The course has been lengthened since then with the Par 70 course now measuring 7.118 yards.

The Claret Jug at Royal Lytham and St Anne's

I’m no Michael Fish but I don’t think the weather is going to be as bad as first forecast. However if the weather is bad I am sure one fella that will feel at home is British Amateur Champion Alan Dunbar. Alan skipped the North of Ireland Championship last week to prepare for his first appearance at a major championship. I am sure he will get plenty of advice from big Darren and I hope he goes out and enjoys himself; he’s drawn in a nice group with Adam Scott and Matt (Kuuuuuuccchh) Kuchar.

When looking through the list of previous Open Champions there is a notable trend, 10 of the last 15 champions had already picked up at least one tour victory that season before teeing it up in their respective Open wins. The five that didn’t were – Stewart Cink (2009), Padraig Harrington (2008), Ben Curtis (2003) and David Duval in (2001).

It’s harder than ever to pick the winner of a major with 15 different winners of the last 15 majors, the strength in depth of both the PGA Tour and European Tours is phenomenal. With Tiger Woods not dominating the majors anymore (hasn’t won any since US Open ’08) the bookies have finally started to give the punters some sort of price on him, he’s a general 9/1 this week (10s with Ladbrokes). With regards Tigers chances this week I think the weather over the last few weeks will hinder his game more than the weather in the next few days. Confused? Well going by reports and Tiger’s own comments the course is wet, the rough is very lush and it will penalise poor accuracy from the tee. Although I think Tiger’s driving has improved no end this year I wouldn’t of thought twice about putting my hard earned cash (I’m a Civil Servant) *waits for the laughing to stop* on a Tiger win if the course was firm and bouncy. No one can forget how he won at Hoylake, stinger shots from the tee with the 3 wood, plenty of crushed iron shots for position, it was just phenomenal course management. But this week with the soft course he can’t afford to lose out on distance off the tee, which means the driver will be on display and if he doesn’t have control of it I don’t think he’ll be winning his 15^th major.

I usually try and keep my picks to two or three on my blog each week, but as it’s a major and I don’t have any ante-post bets I have had five goes to try and come out with the winner come Sunday. I have stuck with the trend that I think the winner on Sunday will have lifted silverware at some stage already this season.

My first pick this week is Dustin Johnson. Big DJ has appeared a few times this year on my blog and of course returned a 22/1 winner for me when winning the St Jude Classic. It has been an injury-plagued season for Johnson with a back injury that kept him out of action for nearly three months. Before his injury in March he had already racked up three Top 10’s so with limited starts he’s had quite a decent season thus far and surely he’ll add a major to his wins sooner rather than later. He finished T-2 last year at Royal St Georges’s, his shank on the 14^th (I think) was costly, big Darren Clarke went on to get the W. DJ’s driving accuracy stat isn’t exactly spectacular (worse than Tiger’s) but he only hit 50% of the fairways last year and nearly got it done. The thing to remember when looking at stats is that whether you miss the fairway by 2 yards or 22 yards it still only goes down as a one missed fairway! I think at the prices Dustin Johnson is good value and offers a real each way opportunity.

Big bad Dustin Johnson

My second selection this week is Ben Curtis. He was on the same list as David Duval, Todd Hamilton, Shaun Micheel et al after his major win at Royal St George’s in 2003, he disappeared. He re-surfaced in 2006 and won a couple of tourneys on the PGA Tour (Booz Allen Classic, ’84 Lumber Classic), but it was back to the doldrums after that. However he’s back with a bang this year. He won the Valero Texas Open and has backed it up with two other Top 5 finishes, which included a T-2 at the Players Championship. His stats support his renaissance; he’s 3^rd in Driving Accuracy, 6^th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 3^rd in Strokes gained through Putting. He doesn’t hit the ball far (averages just 278 yards from the tee) but it’s easier to play from the fairways than it is from the car park, well unless your name is Seve!

Ben Curtis kissing the Claret Jug in 2003

My third selection is Rickie Fowler. Fowler has been the one fella that I was always going to back. However unlike others I didn’t get on ante-post but still think there’s value there. Fowler finally got his maiden title at the Wells Fargo this year (in a play off) and to say it was overdue was an understatement. It was clear he just needed to get the monkey off his back; he backed that win up with a T-2^nd the very next week at Sawgrass (The Players). I think Fowler will be a popular choice with the punters this week and for those who remember his 68 on the Saturday last year (finished 5^th) in pretty nasty conditions they will be confident if the poor weather does arrive he will be able to cope a lot better than the Americans usually do. The only negative I have with Fowler is his putting but the positives out way that.

Rickie Fowler in his Sunday orange

My fourth selection is Rafael Cabrera-Bello. RCB like the others has already picked up a victory this year, his came at the Dubai Desert Classic in February where he beat a strong field, which included Tiger Woods. Since then he has picked up a few Top 3 finishes, the latest being a Runner up finish at Royal Portrush (Irish Open). Like Fowler ball striking is his strength and links golf courses are where he can illustrate that best. He drives the ball well and hits a load of GIR; he averages nearly 75% this year on the European Tour. He had a poor Sunday at the Scottish Open last week (shot 78) so let’s hope he got rid of most of his poor shots then!

Rafael Cabrera-Bello

My fifth and final selection is another past champion, Paul Lawrie. Since winning the Open at Carnoustie in ’99 he doesn’t have a great Open record, his best finish was actually here in 2001 when 42^nd. He won the Qatar Masters in February and has also had five other Top 10 finishes this year. Lawrie chose not to play in the US Open at Olympic Club to stay in Europe and concentrate on Ryder Cup qualification. Lawrie has all the tools to win another Open Championship and show that his first wasn’t a fluke (Van de Velde went deep burn diving). The one negative I have with Lawrie these days is that he seems to get very frustrated very easily and often drops the head when things aren’t going right, he displayed this by storming off after his defeat at the Volvo and refusing interviews, he subsequently apologised. I don’t suspect that everyone believes in omens but if you do…. Lawrie picked up a victory in the ’99 season prior to the Open; it came in the Qatar Masters.

Paul Lawrie with the Claret Jug in 1999

My selections are:

Dustin Johnson 50/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Ben Curtis 100/1 each way with BetVictor (6 places)

Rickie Fowler 40/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Rafael Cabrera-Bello 125/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Paul Lawrie 70/1 each way with Stan James (7 places)

The Italian Job in Scotland and history making Stateside

Well I’m back from my little trip back home to Ireland and all in all it was a great trip. I nipped to Royal Troon for the British Amateur, went to Carton House for a two day golf trip with the lads and of course was at the Irish Open at Royal Portrush. The negative of the trip was it lashed it down pretty much the whole time I was there. My local club (Ballycastle Golf Club) got closed for a day because it was flooded (see pic below). Fast forawrd one week and in London the rain still hasn’t stopped, it’s nearly Arc building time! For anyone who follows amateur golf the North Of Ireland Championship started this week at Portrush, two stroke play rounds to qualify for the match play stage, one at Royal Portrush and the other at GMAC’s home club Rathmore. My mate (Jango) is the only Ballycastle man playing this week and shot he 73, 74 and is currently sweating on qualification as I write this. The low round today (63) and new course record at Royal Portrush came from Dermot McElroy, he played in the Irish Open, so got plenty of practise! I'd say keep an eye out for him in the future, he’s going to be top notch!

The 1st Green at Ballycastle Golf Club

The Scottish Open @ Castle Stewart

Anyways, less of my jibber jabber *finishes Snickers* on to the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart. If you roll back to this time last year we had similar weather and subsequently the Scottish Open was reduced to 54 holes and was won by Luuuuuuke Donald. As I am sure you know, 54 holes is all the course form we have for the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart as that was the tournaments first appearance there after its long affiliation with Loch Lommand finished in 2010. But I’m still using last year’s results to influence my judgement this week. I have two selections and they have a similarity, neither have actually won on the European Tour yet *waits for silence* but both placed 3^rd here last year and both have a little form on the links, so here goes…

First up is Lorenzo Gagli. I followed this guy around Royal Portrush for a little and two things became very clear, one he drives the ball in the rough a lot (58% Driving Accuracy) and two, he tends to get back out of it ok! Unfortunately after a nice start in the Irish Open he shot a 76 on the Saturday, however most of the poor scores came on Saturday afternoon so maybe give him a bye ball for that. He was 8^th in the Irish Open in ’11 and T-3^rd here (Castle Stuart) last year, so he seems to like the cold and the wet! On a serious note he seems to like links golf and although he hasn’t had any Top 10’s this year (six last year), I think he’s worth some each-way money at 125/1.

Lorenzo Gagli

My second selection is George Coetzee. He was bang there last week in France but had a poor round (76) on Sunday and finished down the field. He has had a few chances to get his first win, but hasn’t got over the line yet. Coetzee had a solid start to the year with four Top 10s before May (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Korea & China) but hasn’t picked one up since; his highlight of late was probably his closing 66 at Wentworth in the European Tour’s flagship event. But he’s another guy that plays well on Links courses, T-3^rd here last year and was also 3^rd in the Alfred Dunhill Links as well. Some people might say (queue the tweet) that 50/1 is a poor price considering three time winner Brandon Grace is the same price but I like Coetzee’s chances this week so a 50/1 winner will have to do *giggles*. South Africans have a 25% strike rate in the Scottish Open since 2000 so that’s a good omen!

George Coetzee

My Selections:

Lorenzo Gagli 125/1 each way with SportingBet

George Coetzee 50/1 each way with Bet365

John Deere Classic @ TPC Deere Run

Welcome to The Steve Stricker Show! It’s been talked about all week that Steve Stricker is going for four wins in a row at TPC Deere Run and is bidding to join the elite to win the same tourney four times in succession. Young Tom Morris, Hagen, Sarazen and Tiger (twice) have all done it and if Stricker wins the birdie fest this week he can pull a seat up to the table.

To be honest it’s pretty tough not to pick the tourney fav, when you see that Donald is a similar price in Scotland you can’t help but feel the bookies are giving the punters a chance with Stricker. Granted he hasn’t been setting the world alight since his win in Hawaii but if this were anyone else inside the Top 5 in the world you’d be looking at 4/1 tops! He came into this tourney off the back of the US Open the past three years but played the Greenbrier (T-22) last week, if he finds his putting boots (72^nd in Strokes gained through Putting) we might all look a little naïve for not filling our boots with the 8s on offer yesterday!

Steve Stricker (last year at TPC Deere Run)

I think like last year it’s going to take a low number to get the W this week, it should be a birdie blitz, which points me to Carl Pettersson. Bet everyone thought I was going to say Brendan de Jong! Haha. Pettersson is having a hugely inconsistent season, which as resulted in a win, two runner-ups finishes and six missed cuts. But this is a guy that can go low, shoots 65 and 66s for fun when he gets that big broom handle putter working well. It’s plain to see when looking at his stats that accuracy is his problem but when he gets the ball on the green he picks up shots on the field (12^th in Strokes gained through Putting). Let’s hope he drives it straight (like frozen rope, a JF special) and gives himself plenty of look ins, if he does it could be win number two of the season at tasty odds!

Carl Pettersson (at The Heritage)

My Selections:

Steve Stricker @ 7/1 Outright (General)

Carl Pettersson @ 40/1 each way (General)