Charlie Howell to make it third (III) time lucky!

The PGA Tour



Zurich Classic of New Orleans



The Zurich Classic of New Orleans will be the fifth event held at TPC Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina. The course like most other places in New Orleans suffered damage and subsequently got altered before the course hosted the tournament in ’07. TPC Louisiana measures 7.520 yards and is essentially a shot maker’s golf course, this highlighted no more so when Bubba Watson won last year.



One of my old favourites has plenty of tournament form and I expect after a renaissance to his golf game of late that he will be there or thereabouts come Sunday. Charles Howell III hasn’t missed a cut in 9 appearances in the tournament and has twice been Runner-up (’06,’09). His driving is his Achilles heel and usually dictates his position on the leader board, but regardless of his poor driving stat (142ndin Driving Accuracy) his previous tourney form is a big positive. Howell III is in the Top 40 in GIR (Greens in Regulation) which is pretty good considering he doesn’t seem to get the chance to hit his approaches from too many fairways!



Charles Howell III during his third round last year at TPC Louisiana


 



Jason Dufner is my other selection in New Orleans this week. Dufner reminds me of a young Freddie Couples with his stress free approach to golf. Ironically playing with Freddie at Augusta seemed to be a hindrance and Dufner dropped down the leader board after a very promising start. Since the Masters, Dufner has teed it up at the Heritage where he finished in a T-24. Again, like Howell III, Dufner has solid tourney form with Top 10’s in each of his last three appearances at TPC Louisiana. As a person who likes his stats it was pleasing for me to see that Dufner is inside the Top 10 in the ‘all round ranking’ on the PGA Tour, this gets calculated from your GIR, Driving and Putting stats. It should be noted that putting is far from his strength and he hasn’t actually been in the Top 100 in the putting stats in four years! But Dufner has had a real progressive year, after missing the cut in his seasonal reappearance he has made his last ten on the trot, racking up Top 25 finishes in the last four events he has started.




My Selections:

Charles Howell III 45/1 Each way and 4/1 Top 10 Bet365

Jason Dufner 28/1 each way with BetFred





European Tour



Ballantines Championship 


This week’s “European” Tour action comes from Blackstone GC in Seoul, South Korea. Lee Westwood has chosen not to come and defend his title this week and has therefore left Adam Scott at the head of the betting. Scott has a great record in Asia and is a previous winner so he is a deserving favourite this week with the book makers. Although I am a massive Scott fan, as my readers well know by now, I am going to avoid him this week as he hasn’t shown me anything this season to have me put some hard earned (in case the bosses are reading) cash on him at a single figure price.



At a bigger price I fancy Jbe Kruger to go well. The South African is a fiery little man, who only stands 5’5” tall but has still managed to average over 300 yards off the tee this season. He already has a ‘W’ this season, this coming when he won the Avantha Masters in India. He finished seventh in this event last year on his only appearance and hopefully has some fond memories. Kruger has notched up three other Top 20 finishes outside of his victory. As stated above he hits the ball along way but also boasts an impressive GIR percentage, averaging nearly 75% so far in 2012.



Thorbjørn Olesen is another player trying to establish himself as a European Tour player. He finally got his victory that many had touted in the Sicilian Open. Olesen has huge potential and many regard him as a future Ryder Cup player, whether Medinah comes too early or not, he will certainly feature sooner rather than later. The key to his performances so far this season has been his putting, averaging only 28.46 putts per round he’s sure to make up a couple of strokes on the field each week. With three Top 10’s already this year he has certainly settled in nicely on tour and I think he will most definitely notch up another victory this season, let’s hope it’s this week!



My Selections:


Jbe Kruger 40/1 each way with Will Hill 


Thorbjørn Olesen 40/1 each way with BetVictor

Jim'll fix it at Harbour Town!

RBC Heritage

One of my favourite events on the PGA Tour takes place this week at Harbour Town Links, Hilton Head. The 18^th hole is one of the most epic finishes on the PGA Tour and is always sure to produce drama come Sunday evening.

18th hole at Harbour Town

The 2010 champ Jim Furyk is fresh off a Top 15 finish at the Masters and I expect him to put in another good showing at the Heritage.  In the last 7 years he has 4 Top 10’s; these include his 2010 win and two Runners-up finishes. Furyk has had a good start to 2012 after a very disappointing 2011, he put in a good showing at Bay Hill after a playoff defeat at the Transitions Championship. Driving will be key this week and Furyk is statistically the straightest driver on tour. If Jim gets the putter going he should be there or thereabouts on Sunday.

My other selection this week has plenty of course form as well. Bo Van Pelt has finished in the Top 15 50% (3 from 6) of time he has teed it up at Harbour Town. More importantly though Van Pelt turns up with plenty of momentum; he closed with a 64 at Augusta for a Top 20 finish. Van Pelt has some impressive stats beside his name; he is ranked 1^st in Total Driving and 1^st in the All Round Ranking (this takes in GIR, Putting and Driving). Bo has 4 Top 10’s this year which is the most on tour and hopefully he can give his supporters another good sweat this week.

My Selections:

Jim Furyk @ 18/1 each way with Bet365
Bo Van Pelt @ 25/1 each way with BetFred

Maybank Malaysian Open

With Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen travelling to Malaysia from Augusta there is plenty of class at the head of the market.  Although all three have the class to run away with this tourney I am taking the gamble that they will be feeling the effects of the Masters, especially Runner up Oosthuizen.

Matteo Manassero is the defending champ this week, and I fully expect him to put on a great defence. Manassero has already racked up 3 Top 10’s this year and was very unfortunate to miss out on the Masters himself. He didn’t hide the fact that he wanted a good start to the season to push his way up the rankings and into the Masters, even with the Top 10’s he came up shy. Manassero has 2 wins on the European Tour and I fancy him to make it 3 this week.

Matteo Manassero lifting the trophy last year

Michael Hoey hasn’t been seen since his sensational win in the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco where he shot a pair of 65’s over the weekend to get the ‘W.’ Although Hoey isn’t a household name like his Northern Irish counterpart Rory McIlroy he actually has more victories than him on the European Tour (4>3). Hoey is an inconsistent sort, he’s very hard to catch right, but with 4 victories on tour and 4 victories on the Challenge Tour it’s clear when he puts himself in position he gets the job done. He found the putter working for him over the weekend in Morocco and his Putts per Green (1.77) stat is the best it’s been in 5 years on the European Tour. His biggest win was probably at the Alfred Dunhill, holding off Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington, 3 major winners. Maybe it’s an omen and he can hopefully hold off another 3 this week.

My Selections:

Matteo Manassero @ 16/1 each way with Ladbrokes (5 places)

Michael Hoey @ 60/1 each way with Bet365 (5 places)

Donald in 'Stealth Mode' to grab the Green Jacket

Masters week has finally arrived and to say I’m buzzing with anticipation for Thursday is an understatement. I think there’s a different feel to the Masters than any of the other majors.



I don’t remember a Masters in recent years with this type of build up, the media have really exhausted the whole Tiger versus Rory match up in recent days, but you can understand why. When Rory won the US Open last year everyone practically awarded the next few majors to him without a tee shot being hit. This was down to two main reasons, one being; they argued that McIlroy was only going to get better, and the second reason was that he didn’t have any long term competition to speak of. To be honest I agreed with them, Tiger was in the depths of despair with his game, Mickelson was getting on a little and there didn’t look to be anyone up and coming with enough talent to challenge his week in week out. But roll on 9 months, Tiger has found his swing again with Sean Foley, Keegan Bradley has turned into a real class act and Luke Donald just seems to be a thorn in everyone’s side.

Obviously everyone has their opinion on Tiger; I do, and like everyone I’ve aired mine a few times. But this blog is about the Masters this week so I won’t start a rant; I just hope that after this week that regardless of your opinion on Tiger the person, you will agree that golf needs Tiger Woods. Looking back through the years you see that there has been some great rivalaries, Nicklaus had Watson, Faldo had Norman, Woods and Mickelson and McIlroy will hopefully have the second coming of Tiger Woods. When watching the golf on the Saturday of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and seeing how comfortable Woods seemed to be with his swing again I cheekily tweeted a few of the big bookmakers to ask for a price on Tiger and Rory being paired together in the final group on Sunday at the Masters, I was offered 16/1 which I thought was quite reasonable and invested some of my hard earned cash!

Will we see this on Sunday?

With all of the above said, I started the blog to try and find some value in the tournaments and nothing has changed this week. With Woods and McIlroy at the head of the market and with very skinny odds I think the 16/1 on Luke Donald is a cracking each way bet, ¼ the odds for 5 places is a real banker in my opinion.  I had backed him last year when he came T-4 before he went on to having an unbelievable year, winning BOTH money titles, the first time that had ever been done. He went out and won a tournament he had to win to wrap up the money title in America, that’s delivering under pressure and that’s a quality you need if you have any intention of winning a major. After last year, pundits questioned would he be able to play again to that level, well, he’s already won again this year and retained his Number 1 spot from McIlroy, so that answers that; the win also happened to be his last start (Transitions Tournament) so he’s carrying plenty of momentum into this week.

Another Englishman I fancy to go well this week is Justin Rose. T-11 last year and already a ‘W’ this year he seems to have established himself as the player everyone hoped he would be when he burst on the scene as an amateur in the Open Championship nearly 15 years ago! When you are looking for a player to invest money in you need to find someone who hits plenty of GIR (Greens in Regulation). If you short side yourself round Augusta you drop shots, fact! Well unless it’s the 16th hole and your name's Tiger Woods, Nike made an ad from that one! Rose is comfortably inside the Top 20 in GIR and like Donald carries plenty of momentum after his win at the WGC Cadillac tourney. One thing I would say about Rose and it was well demonstrated at Bay Hill is that when his putter is cold, it’s ice cold! Hopefully this week he finds the puttering stroke he had at Doral, if he does, he’ll be bang there.

I, of course tipped up Adam Scott at the start of the season, (see Ante Post Masters post) and although I am disappointed in his season thus far he still remains a threat, T-2 last year and hasn’t played much this year.

Now for a few Top 10/20 bets. Angel Cabrera is 5/2 to finish in the Top 20 and 13/2 to finish in the Top 10. El Pato (The duck) as he is affectionately known as is a previous winner and seems to find his best form round here regardless of how he’s being playing in the weeks prior. He missed the cut the week before the Masters last year, before finished 7th, he was 73rd the week before the 2010 Masters where he notched up at Top 20 finish and in 2009 when he won the Masters he missed the cut the week before! He was T-21 last week, enough said!

Another Top 20 finish I fancy this week is Martin Laird. Laird has been a real solid player in the States. He move there to play college golf and now resides in Arizona. Laird has two PGA Tour wins, and 17 Top 10 finishes in his short time on tour. That’s pretty impressive when you think of the depth of the PGA Tour nowadays. He has had two Top 5 finishes already this year and had a real strong finish to last year; he also finished in a T-20 in the Masters in his first appearance at Augusta. The 4/1 for a Top 20 finish is well worth a punt!

You can’t really write a blog about the Masters without mentioning Freddie Couples, for obvious reasons. Couples is one of those players that every so often come along; in every sport, who people seem to relate to and cheer for regardless of how well he may or may not be playing. He is of course now plying his trade on the Champions Tour where he is still getting a few ‘W’s!  When I was thinking of putting him up as a selection I thought mhhmmmm surely he’s too old? There’s bound to better value elsewhere? But 11 Top 10’s and a victory (’92) in his career at Augusta I thought I would be crazy not to point him out. The most ridiculous stat of them all is that of those 11 Top 10’s, he’s had at least one of them in each of the last FOUR decades, boom! *dusts down shoulder* Will Hill offer 10/3 for him to grab a Top 20 finish come Sunday evening.

The Legend that is Fred Couples

With the bookies offering so many different markets it’s hard to go through them all and pick out selections. All the top firms have, Top European, Top Australasian, Top American etc, but the one that interests me is Top Debutant.  Now, the only problem with this market is, you’ve no course form to go on! Keegan Bradley is deservingly a short priced favourite (11/8) in this market as he is of course a major winner and probably the best young talent in American golf. But at that price he isn’t for me. I think everyone had to be impressed with the way Kyle Stanley won his first PGA tour event. He of course blew up the week before, throwing away a mammoth lead going into the final day. He has been a little quiet of late but in what looks like a 4 way match up for the debutant's title between Bradley, Webb Simpson, Sang-Moon Bae and Stanley I think 7/1 is very generous and will take a nibble at that.

I mentioned the bet I did regarding Tiger, Rory and the final round pairing earlier and I am sure there’ll be a few interested parties to the ‘Forecast Market.’ Yes, you read that right; in a 96 runner field the bookies have invited you to predict the 1-2. The bookies are obviously trying to line their pockets by using the media hype round Tiger and Rory and are offering 22/1 and 25/1 for the forecast. It sounds crazy and might even be called a ‘mug’ bet but let’s be honest would anyone be surprised?

My selections:

Luke Donald @ 16/1 each way with Bet365

Justin Rose @33/1 each way with BetVictor

Angel Cabrera @ 5/2 Top 20 with Stan James & 13/2 Top 10 with BetVictor

Martin Laird @ 4/1 Top 20 & 9/1 Top 10 with Stan James

Fred Couples @ 10/3 Top 20 with Will Hill

Adam Scott @ 33/1 with Paddy Power  ANTEPOST Selection