From Houston to, err, Sicily!

Shell Houston Open

With this tournament being used by a couple of the bigger names as their last preparation for Augusta it’s hard to assess who is out for the win. You may laugh, but, Phil Mickelson regularly turns up to tournaments the week before a major and practises shots he will need the following week. If Phil does turn up with the ‘A’ game and gets the ‘W’ it would mean that the Top 4 in the betting for the Masters have all won their last start before Augusta. That’s got to be a first!

Steve Stricker must be buzzing after his buddy Tiger finally got his win last week. Stricker has been Tiger's' go to guy for his putting and that’s what could get Stricker the ‘W’ this week. He already has a victory this year and notched up 3 Top 10’s in 4 events, 2 of which were the World Golf Championships. Stricker has decent tourney form as well, T-4 last year and 3 Top 15 finishes in the last 6 years which included a 3^rd place finish in ’06. His putting stats in the last 5 years have been phenomenal, consistently near the top each year. It’s no surprise to see that being in the Top 5 in Greens In Regulation (GIR) also gives him the best ranking in birdie average this year, sometimes this stuff writes itself.

Now for a big price each way. Chad Campbell is a guy who must wake up in the morning and wish that putting wasn’t a part of golf. He hasn’t been in the Top 100 of the putting stats in 3 years, with his ball striking ability that must be frustrating. He was 4^th in GIR last year and didn’t even sniff a victory. He tends to play a little better closer to home, he was T-13 last year in Houston and was T-2 in ’08. Other than that I am basing my selection more on his old form, with 4 PGA Tour victories and 11 Runner-Up finishes I just can’t get away from monster 125/1 on offer. Unfortunately Campbell is a guy that tends to lose interest pretty quickly when things aren’t going his way, so I will probably know the fate of this bet on Thursday night after the First Round!

I am going to use a second bullet this year on Paul Casey as my Top 10 bet. As mentioned in one of my earlier posts Casey is fighting his way back from injury. He’s a class act when on form and I really don’t want to miss the week he comes good. I don’t think I would be backing him to win the event but I certainly won’t be putting anyone off the 9/1 for a Top 10 finish in an event he previously won in ’09.

My Selections:

Steve Stricker 16/1 each way with Bet365
Chad Campbell 125/1 each way with Will Hill

Paul Casey  9/1 Top 10 finish with Stan James

Sicilian Open

This is only the second playing of the Sicilian Open with Raphael Jacquelin defending his trophy that he won at Verdura Golf and Spa resort. The course itself is a links course measuring 7,375 yards.

With the very little course form to pick through I decided to have a bit of a punt on someone who has shown little form of late but has plenty of form on the links! Chris Wood has had two Top 5 finishes at the Open Championship, one of those coming when he still had amateur status. When he turned pro I think a lot of people including myself thought he would become a solid tour player and would get a few victories under his belt. That hasn’t materialised with Wood picking up a few injuries along the way. His season thus far hasn’t been great, just mustering the two Top 20 finishes, but hopefully he can find his feet on the links again and post a few solid scores.

Steve Webster is another guy that isn’t exactly setting the world alight of late but had a solid end to last year and hopefully can get back on track this week. Webster posted a good early round of 67 last year before 3 mediocre rounds pushed him back for a T-26. He is a two time winner on the European Tour and if he can somehow find his form again the 10/1 on offer for a Top 10 finish looks massive.

Another big price for value seekers could be Peter Lawrie. Lawrie also finished T-26 last year with a moving day 66 on Saturday before a poor final round. Like most Irish golfers he has form on links golf courses. As I mentioned above, its only the second playing of the tournament and actually only the 3^rd year the course has been open so it’s not a betting market to dive into.

My Selections :

Chris Wood 55/1 each way with Coral

Peter Lawrie 80/1 each way with Bet365

Steve Webster 10/1 for a Top 10 finish with SkyBet

It looks Rosey for Justin at Bay Hill!!

Last week Luke Donald won a 4 man play off to win the Transitions championship and become the new World Number 1 after getting dethroned by Rory McIlroy 2 weeks earlier. The Number 1 ranking looks like flipping more often than a pancake on Shrove Tuesday but that can only make each PGA stop that bit more exciting this season.

This week the tour stops at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event is one of the favourites amongst the players. The King Arnold Palmer is a hero, someone the older players in the field watched growing up, someone the younger players heard legendary tales about . So for them the win here would be a defining moment in most of their careers.

Not only is Bay hill a tough golf course but at this time of year it gets blustery too. The tough conditions have kept players from separating themselves from the field. The winning scores the last few years have been single digits under par, even during the years of Tiger's domination, he was typically the only one in double digits under par. This course suits great ball strikers, and someone who fits the bill is Justin Rose.

He's already got a win and a tie for fifth during the Florida Swing. And this week is a home game for Rose, who tied for third a year ago at Bay Hill. In the wake of his victory at the WGC-Cadillac, co-led the field in greens in regulation at the Transitions where he placed T29. Ranks 19th on tour in GIR, eighth in the all-around and 14th in bogey avoidance.

There were 5 crucial points in the above paragraph that helped guide me to Rose as my pick this week, but perhaps the stand out one is his ability to avoid bogeys. If the wind blows then there will be more demand in cutting out mistakes rather than making birdies. Rose is long enough to make the Par 5's his friend this week, and if he can keep his nose clean on the demanding  Par 3's then the 16/1 chalked up by most bookmakers is an attractive price.

Yesterday saw the conclusion of the 2 day exhibition match at the Tavistock Cup. Its not the ideal tournament to get carried away with player's scores as its played in a relaxed environment around a course that all the players are very familar with, however its a good indication of how the players coped with blustery conditions. Robert Allenby played for Team Isleworth who finished 2nd, Allenby shot the joint best score of the day with a 5 under par round in similar conditions in which the players will be faced with this week at Bay Hill.

 Last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Allenby had a tough start with a first round 79, but followed up with 3 rounds under par. In the hope that Robert can put 4 decent rounds together this week, I think the 15/2 on offer from Ladbrokes for a top 10 finish is a cracking betting proposition.

My Selections are:
Justin Rose - 16/1 eachway (William Hill)
Robert Allenby - 15/2 Top Ten Finish (Ladbrokes)

Forget the Bear Trap there's venom in the Snake Pit

 

PGA Tour - Transitions Championship

This week the PGA Tour travels to the Transitions Championship at Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead in Florida. The defending champ this week is Gary Woodland.

Charl Schwartzel is in great form at the moment and has notched up Top 5’s in each of the last two weeks and I fully expect him to be thereabouts come Sunday evening. It might sound silly saying this but I don’t think he’s even hitting the ball as flush as he can. Schwartzels success in the past couple of weeks is mainly down to his short game; he’s comfortably inside the Top 10 for strokes gained by putting and is 1^st in Scrambling. That said, his ball striking is nearly there and this is the week that he might put it altogether and beat a solid field which includes the World Number 2 Luke Donald.

Below: The players had to avoid 'The Bear Trap' at PGA National, now they got to negotiate 'The Snake Pit'

At bigger prices I expect Paul Casey (80/1 Outright) to continue to play his way back from injury and put a few solid rounds together. I don’t think he will win the tournament but the 10/1 offered by ToteSport on a Top 10 finish sounds tasty. Casey had a great finish to last season and probably had big plans for 2012 before he injured himself whilst on holiday. He started this tournament last year with a 64 before finishing in T-37^th and will be hoping to get another few solid rounds under his belt before the Masters.

One of the more comical moments from last week was when Casey’s caddy thought he had just won a share of a car after Casey got a hole in one. Craig Connelly (his caddy) and Casey apparently agreed that they would split the prize if Casey succeeded with his 8 iron at the Par 3, Casey duly delivered, but after comedy scenes from Connelly he was told that there was no prize for a hole in one at that hole!

The European Tour - Open De Andalucía

The European Tour is in Spain this week for the Andalucía Masters. Rafael Cabrera Bello is a strong young player whose career is blossoming this year. He had an impressive win in a strong field in Dubai earlier in the year at the Desert Classic when he beat a deep field which included the new world number 1 Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods, among others.

Rafael was maybe out of his depth a little in the World Golf Championships in Arizona and at Doral these past few weeks but he’s now back in familiar territory this week where he finished T11 last year and with a weaker field than usual at this event I fancy him to give us a run for our money at 40/1. A saver bet would be to back him to finish Top 10 at 9/2.

 

PGA Tour - Transitions Championship

Charl Schwartzel 16/1 each way with Bet365 (5 places 1/4 odds)


Paul Casey 10/1 with ToteSport for a Top 10 finish

The European Tour - Open De Andalucía

Rafael Cabrera Bello 40/1 each way with BetFred (5 places 1/4 odds)

Rafael Cabrera Bello 9/2 Top 10 finish with ToteSport

     

Who will tame the Blue Monster?

The TPC Blue Monster at Doral measures 7,206 yards and plays every inch of it. The signature hole is the Par 4 18^th. It played the most difficult finishing hole on the PGA Tour last year and is sure to provide fireworks on Sunday.

Phil Mickelson won this in 2009 and could sneak under the radar this week. With all the attention seemingly on McIlroy, Woods and Westwood at the moment Phil can quietly start where he left off. Mickelson was in great form in February before deciding to take a family vacation and miss the first World Golf Championship of the season, the Match Play event. I think Phil deciding to take a vacation instead of taking part in the World Match Play tells its own tale; family is number one in his life now, followed by golf. That being said there’s no way he’s lost his competitiveness and will hopefully be in the thick of things come Sunday evening. Mickelson’s final round 64 at Pebble Beach for victory was one of the best rounds of the year and he followed it up with a 2nd place finish at Riviera. With McIlroy and Woods dominating the head of the betting the 14/1 about Mickelson is definitely value.

McIlory is the favourite and deservedly so. He is now the new World Number 1 and his run of form this season has been awesome but surely there will be a little fatigue starting to show shortly and he will have the Masters in the back of his mind. Tiger on the other hand is starting to find his feet back on tour and has now added Arnie’s tourney to his schedule. After last week’s final round 62 and his record in this event it's without doubt his best opportunity of a win so far this season. I read an interesting stat that Tiger fans will enjoy, by now committing to Arnie’s tournament Woods will have played 7 tournaments Pre-Masters, the last time he played that many was in 2005, the last time he won it.

Another player I fancy to go well this week at a bigger price is Matt Kuchar. Kuchar is one of the most solid players on the PGA Tour. He has great tournament form with a 5^th place finish in 2011 and 3^rd place finish in 2010. His season was relatively quiet up until the Match play where he seemed to find his groove again reaching the Quarter Finals. If the big names aren’t at the races this guy has more than enough game to capitalise and at 40/1 with some firms is hopefully an each way steal.

Last week’s blog was saved by GMAC at 4/1 on our Top 10 bet so I’ve decided to try and find another ‘Saver Bet.’ This week I think Rickie Fowler can post another Top 10 at a WGC event. Fowler had T-9, 8^TH and 2^nd place finishes in the WGC events last year and I think with his solid Top 10 finish at the Honda Classic last week he can keep his run going. Fowler still hasn’t got a win on the PGA Tour which must be starting to get frustrating, but he seems to keep his best golf for the big tournaments.

My selections this week:

Phil Mickelson @ 14/1 Outright with BETVICTOR

Matt Kuchar @ 35/1 eachway (SIX Places) with PADDY POWER

Rickie Fowler @ 9/2 to finish in the Top 10 with BETFRED