Don't get caught in the Bear Trap!

2012 Honda Classic – PGA National

The PGA National plays host to the Honda Classic this week and the players are in for a tough test as usual. The course measures 7,158 yards. The 15th through 17th hole are known as ‘The Bear Trap’ and were collectively the toughest any three hole stretch on the 2011 PGA TOUR. The field averaged +1.178 strokes over par on these three holes in 2011

After a frustrating week for some players last week in the Match Play I am sure they are glad to be back to stroke play and the opportunity to play golf on Thursday, for some of them, they were off home on Wednesday night last week!

When deciding on selections this week I decided to avoid the players who went deep in the Match Play last week. Some people will say, “Why? they are in form” but I think the format of last week will take a lot out of the players, probably more mentally than physically. For that reason I started to look at early exits by players who actually for the most part played pretty good golf.

For those of you who read my blog last week I am sure you could guess I was particularly fuming with Jim Furyk. Furyk was playing Dustin Johnson and had the match in control when 3 up well into the back 9 only to throw it away and lose on the 19^th hole with a three putt.  I huffed for a few days about that but really fancy him to go well this week. Furyk doesn’t tend to play this tournament a lot, with just three appearances in the last ten years, but has notched up a couple of top 10s in that time, albeit on a different course. The only time Furyk played this tournament around this course was actually the first time it moved here in 2007, so I’m hoping he’s not trying to tell me something!

Furyk has had a relatively quiet season thus far but I think after he sat down and took the positives from last week that he will realise all in all his game is in pretty good shape. The PGA National course is without doubt a ball strikers golf course, hitting fairways is key, so seeing that Jim is in the Top 5 in Driving Accuracy so far this year and was in the Top 10 in 2011 is a big plus for me.

Another player with an early exit last week was Graeme McDowell. GMAC played some great golf in the 1^st Round last week with 6 birdies but unfortunately came up short against an inspired Y.E. Yang. McDowell was quick to say after he was pleased with how he played and that he just came up against the better player on the day. Earlier this week GMAC took to twitter to show fans a short video of him practising at PGA National, he appears to like the course and can go well this week. With a sixth place finish here last year and appearing back to near his best I think GMAC can have a solid Top 10 finish and hopefully be in the mix come Sunday.

My selections are:     

Jim Furyk @ 45/1 each way with BETVICTOR  (5 places 1/4 odds)

Graeme McDowell @ 40/1 each way with BETFRED (5 places 1/4 odds)

Graeme McDowell @ 4/1 Top 10 finish with STAN JAMES



It’s Last Man standing at Dove Mountain

The first World Golf Championship of the year; the Accenture Match Play Championship is at The Ritz-Carlton Golf Club at Dove Mountain, Arizona. The course itself is a monster in length, measuring 7,833 yards and is a Par 72.

The problem with trying to decipher a field of this depth is that you realise that there are any number of players capable of winning. When studying for previous tournaments I tend to look for a consistent type that over 72 holes will slowly raise to the top. But its match play, consistent play doesn’t always win the day!

Another dilemma is the fact the Americans don’t have a good record here in recent years, not even a finalist in the last 3, but they have won the first 7 PGA tour titles this season and won the Presidents Cup quite convincingly.

The one good aspect to the Match Play from a betting perspective is that the draw is released at the beginning of the week and you can consider the path that your selection would have to overcome to triumph on Sunday.

The Bobby Jones bracket has a lot of depth to it and a few great opening round matches, the most notable one being current World Number 1 Luke Donald taking on the ‘Big Easy’ Ernie Els. Donald made his US re-appearance last week, it was pretty low key until a disastrous final round 78 dropped him well down the field; coincidently Ernie shot the same score. I think the defending champ Donald will win this one with the difference coming with the Texas wedge, one player’s strength in recent years against another mans undoubted weakness. It should be noted that Ernie only got into the event after the withdrawal of Phil Mickelson and may feel he has a point to prove. Also in the Bobby Jones bracket we have an opening round match between Dustin Johnson and Jim Furyk. Johnson has the length to cause a lot of damage in match play but Furyk’s accuracy with his irons and the fact he will be hitting first into most greens will put enough pressure on Johnson's wedge game to force mistakes, he made plenty of mistakes last Sunday with his wedges for everyone to see! I think the dark horse of the tournament could well be Furyk, he was top points scorer at the Presidents Cup and loves match play, if he can survive the early rounds I think he has a great each way chance. I think Furyk will edge out Donald in the bracket decider.

Bobby Jones   -  Jim Furyk     14/1       (1/3 odds 2 places)

The Ben Hogan bracket is tricky, with Kaymer, Fowler, Watson, Stricker, McDowell and Mahan all grouped together. I think it’s quite possible that the winner may emerge from this bracket. The first thing I noticed in this bracket, probably like a lot of others, is the possibility of another match up between GMAC and Hunter Mahon. I don’t think either player currently has the game to go on and win it but it adds a little bit of flavour with their past Ryder Cup match, which of course GMAC won to clinch the 2010 Ryder Cup. The top of the bracket is where the winner may end up coming from, and that’s exactly where Martin Kaymer is. Kaymer has an opening round match against Greg Chalmers before a possible match with Rickie Fowler. Kaymer was a beaten finalist last year and has everything you would want to be great match player. Kaymer will undoubtedly go on to be a real stalwart for the European Ryder Cup team and I think he will continue to appear towards the business end of tournaments like this. Like so many other of the new crop of European golfers he can grind, and has obvious similarities to Bernard Langer. He has had a quiet start to the year but has posted some good rounds and I think he will come into form at just the right time. I think the bracket will come down to Kaymer and Stricker, with the German getting the ‘W.’

Ben Hogan      -          Martin Kaymer   6/1 (Various firms)

The Gary Player bracket has Mc Ilroy, Garcia, Day and Poulter (past champion) among others. Just like the Ben Hogan bracket I think the more informative matches in regards the possible winner come Sunday will come from the top of this bracket. An early 2^nd round clash between McIlroy and Garcia is a strong possibility. McIlroy has struggled in the business end of tournaments so far this season but has all the attributes required to win such a tournament. It’s difficult to find a reason why Rory could not win a tournament like this when you analysis his game, but of course you could say that about most weeks! Garcia has finally got his game back in some sort of shape which helped him win twice at the back end of last season, but I am still cautious when it comes to pressure putts and his habit of missing the short ones. I think the Gary Player bracket will come down to McIlroy and Day with the Irish man progressing.

Gary Player     -           Rory McIlroy    4/1 (Various firms)

The Sam Snead bracket has a few good 1^st round matches. Westwood vs. Colsaerts, Simpson vs. Manassero would be my pick of them. Westwood I think could struggle but should win and Manessero I think has a good chance of springing a minor surprise by beating Webb Simpson. Westwood tends to slowly play his way into tournaments and that’s what I think he may do this week, if he starts to hole his fair share of putts I think his game will be too consistent for some of his streaky opponents. I expect Manessero to get a win this year and at a decent tournament, but I doubt it will come this week. Tiger starts off his challenge against Fernandez-Castano in the 1^st round and I fully expect Tiger to punish any suspect putting strokes from the Spaniard. I would love to see Tiger play the way he did in his singles match at the Presidents Cup against Aaron Baddley, if he did, he would be a massive threat come Sunday but personally I don’t think match play is what Tiger needs at the moment when trying to cement his new swing. If it gets down to the nitty gritty in Tigers matches I can see him going back to what he knows, and that might just get him in more trouble than he can get out of. I think the Sam Snead bracket will come down to Westwood and Quiros with Westwood too experienced for the big hitting Spaniard.

Sam Snead      -           Lee Westwood  11/2 (Various firms)

The winner of the Gary Player Bracket then plays the winner of the Sam Snead bracket with the Bobby Jones and Ben Hogan winners facing off.

The betting proposition in this tournament seems to be small accumulators’ in the opening rounds. Out of the 32 opening games I have selected 5 results that I would be happy to put in an accumulator:

Rickie Fowler to beat David Toms                

Steve Stricker to beat Kevin Na                    

Jason Day to beat R. C. Bello                        

Charl Schwartzel to beat Gary Woodland     

Robert Karlsson to beat Fredrik Jacobson     

The accumulator pays      -  13/1 

  

To win the Accenture Match Play:

Martin Kaymer 25/1  (1/4 odds 4 places)  Betfred


Jim Furyk  70/1  (1/4 odds 4 places)  SkyBet

Rory McIlroy   12/1  (Outright)  

From Riviera to India!

PGA Tour - Northern Trust Open

I have been patiently waiting for the return of Adam Scott and he is my selection for the Northern Trust Open this week at Riviera Country Club. You may remember I also put him forward as my ANTEPOST selection for the 2012 Masters.

It is Scott’s seasonal reappearance on the PGA Tour and I’m hoping he isn’t too rusty this week to mount a challenge. Scott has great course form, being a winner in 2005 and a runner up in 2006. Many people will point out the fact that his win came over 37 holes as the tournament had to be suspended because of rain, but a wins a win!

I am expecting a big year from Scott, he has just come off his best season on the PGA Tour since 2006 and I fully expect him to challenge week in week out now that he has his putting sorted out!

When looking through the various markets offered by the bookies this week I noticed what I hope to be a bit of value. Kevin Na has finished T-5 in his last two events and had a 3^rd place finish in this event last year. Na likes to throw in the occasional crazy hole, but overall is pretty consistent and I think the 4/1 on offer from BetVictor to finish in the Top 10 could be a decent cover bet. He is 40/1 with BetVictor to win the tournament outright.

My Selections in the Northern Trust Open are –

Adam Scott @30/1 each way with BET365 (Pays 5 places)

Kevin Na @ 4/1 with BETVICTOR for a Top 10 finish.

European Tour – Avantha Masters

My selection is slightly tentative one this week in India with a lot of unknown quantities.

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet has had a couple of good weeks in the ‘Desert Swing’ with a 12^th  place finish in Abu Dhabi and a 5^th place finish in Qatar. However he did miss the cut last week in Dubai. This could be a good year for the French man with notable improvement in his Putts per green and Greens in Regulation stats. His 36^th place finish last year doesn’t look great but his 3^rd round 66 was the second lowest round of the week so he does know how to go low around DFL Golf and Country Club. If he could get his putter flowing like he did in the Final Round at Qatar he could be decent each way value in what is a pretty weak field in comparison to his opposition in recent weeks.

My Selection in the Avantha Masters is - Jean- Baptiste Gonnet @ 33/1 with Betfred (Pays 5 places, ¼ odds)

From Dubai to Pebble Beach - this week's selections

Hopefully a classic in Dubai!

Paul Lawrie was the winner last week in what has turned out to be a quality ‘desert swing’ this year.  Lawrie and Rock in the past two weeks have showed their American counterparts on the PGA Tour how a tournament should be closed out!  With this week being the last stop in UAE until the end of the season it’s the last chance for the desert specialists to get a ‘W’ on the board. Rory McIlroy returns this week and duly gets installed as a short price favourite (4/1), which gives the punters value if wanting to look elsewhere.

My selection this week has had a good couple of weeks in the desert and I hope he can top it off with a victory. With a runner up finish last week I fancy Peter Hanson to take the world of beating this week in what’s essentially a deeper field. Hanson’s form goes back to last year where he finished 4^th in the season ending tournament in Dubai. He also came 9^th in this event last year when Alvaro Quiros came out on top.

The one disappointing thing about Hanson’s season so far is probably how easily he fell away when in the final group of the Abu Dhabi Championship alongside Tiger Woods and Robert Rock. That poor finish ruined a great run of figures beside his name starting with Hong Kong towards the end of last year - 3^rd-4^th-35^th-2^nd. The second place finish last week was particularly good as he holed absolutely nothing on the Sunday, so hopefully his putter gets hot this week.

My Selection is Peter Hanson each way @ 22/1( Coral 5 places ¼ odds)

There may be a Dallas Cowboy in town, but there’s only one MVP!

It’s Pro-Am time at Pebble Beach and it’s a rare appearance from Tiger Woods. The announcement from Woods that he had put the AT & T onto his schedule for the first time since 2002 has set up a box office pairing of Woods and Dallas Cowboy Tony Romo.  The AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am is played on three different courses, Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula CC and Pebble Beach itself.

At the start of the season I told myself I wouldn’t be backing Tiger at single figure prices until he actually won a tournament, but I’ve changed my mind, he better not let me down. When it comes to Pebble Beach Tiger has fond memories, his infamous 15 shot victory in the US Open here in 2000 was when he was at the height of his powers, he went on to hold all 4 majors at the same time, dubbed the ‘Tiger Slam.’ In 2010 when the US Open returned to Pebble Beach he eventually finished T4^th behind the champion Graeme McDowell.

Tiger hasn’t been associated with many tournaments of this structure in the past, he was all about preparation for the WGCs and the majors but a lot has changed in the last couple of years. The one noticeable thing about Tiger this year is how much he appears to be enjoying golf again, lots of smiles and lots of banter with his playing partners and I think he will thrive in the atmosphere this week.

The changes that Tiger has undergone with Sean Foley are really starting to show even to the most novice eye. The reduced back swing, the still head, it adds up to a more controlled swing and subsequently better results. His game has continually progressed, towards the end of the 2011 season he came 3^rd in the Australian Open, moving on to the Presidents Cup where he emphatically won his singles match, before winning his own tournament in December. His 2012 season started in Abu Dhabi where he finished in 3rd place with a very quiet Sunday round. This will be his first start on the PGA Tour in 2012; hopefully he makes it a winning one.

My Selection is Tiger Woods @ 11/2 to win (Boylesports)

It's pantomime time at TPC Scottsdale

It's that time again for probably the noisiest golf tournament of the year. The Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is different to pretty much any other tournament, this is down to the influence the fans have. The 16th hole at Scottsdale is the setting for the pantomime, with your usual heroes and villains. It's simple, if you hit a good shot you're a hero, but if you fail to hit the green, prepare for the chorus of boos!

After D.A. Points frustrating letting the PGA Tour side of the blog down for place money last week at 40/1 when only finishing 8th (top 5 paid) I decided this week that I was going to concentrate more on current form and less on course form, that said, my selection had a great Thursday and Friday here last year (shot 65, 65) before he eventually fell down through the field for a tie for 29th. He shot a 76 in the final round but we have a very different player on our hands this time round.

Bill Haas is who I am pinning my hopes on this week and I feel the bookies have given us a little bit of each way value which I wasn't expecting to get. Haas is 33/1 this week, which I think is awesome value for last year’s FED EX Cup winner. He got off to an unbelievable start last week with a 63 on Thursday where every putt he looked at dropped, the putts inevitably dried up and he went on to finish with a 4th place finish. Haas has been a different player since he won the FED EX in style at the end of the 2011 season and it was going to be interesting to see if he kicked on from there this season and became a Top 10 golfer or simply just rested on his laurels. I think it's still a bit early to say he can become a Top 10 player but I definitely don’t think he has rested on his laurels that’s for sure!

My Selection - Bill Haas @ 33/1  (1/4 odds 5 places) Boylesports/Coral