Market leaders to conquer St Andrews

The Open Championship 2015

I'm on my holidays and too busy golfing to write a full blog, but thought I'd share my selections anyway!

I would have been keen on Grace and Oosthuizen again, after Chambers Bay, but the prices have obviously collapsed after their stellar efforts - good luck to anyone who got them at fancy ante post prices!

With reports - and the videos I've seen - St Andrews is playing particularly soft and I think it plays into the hands of the market principles; when it's fast and fiery, it opens up to the field a little more. Spieth is obviously, and rightly so, favourite - but at 8/1, I'm happy to leave him alone. With no Rory, he's got an outstanding chance to make history at the USPGA; but there's some class acts in behind, who will be quietly confident with the world number one not there.

My first pick is Adam Scott. Scott made a conscious decision to woo Stevie Williams out of retirement, and this along with Augusta is what he was really looking him for. With Williams caddying for Tiger in both his wins around here, Scott will be able to pick his brains on the do's and don't's. Scott’s limited schedule means we don't actually get to see him too much, but a solid showing at Chambers Bay will give him plenty of momentum.

My second pick is Henrik Stenson. Henrik's game suits St Andrews down to a tee, in my opinion. His iron play is sublime, and with such big greens, his accuracy can leave him in the right spots to attack for birdies, but also to ensure of minimal mistakes on the greens. 

William Hill have gone 25/1 for both this morning, so both each way selections for me. Apologies for the briefness, but let's hope for a decent result.

Enjoy the tourney and good luck with whoever you do.

Adam Scott - 25/1 with Will Hill 2pts each way

Henrik Stenson - 25/1 with Will Hill 2 pts each way

A Rose among the Dunes at Chambers Bay

The US Open at Chambers Bay

Quite looking forward to this year’s US Open as it's a bit of an unknown quantity. The Masters didn't turn out to be a great betting event for me this year and I haven't struck had many (possibly any) bets since - so the powder is dry and my palms itchy!

Chambers Bay measures 7,742 yards and is a Par 70. The course is less than ten years old and constructed over an abandoned mining site. Robert Trent Jones Jr. was tasked with building a course that could host an US Open. The course includes fescue turf throughout, making this the first US Open to be played on all-fescue. The USGA awarded the course the 2010 U.S. Amateur and 2015 US Open. Peter Uihlein won the 2010 US Amateur and shortly after, it made some changes in prep for this year’s US Open. One quirky thing that the USGA have decided to do, is alternate the par on the 1st and 18th, from Par 4 to Par 5 - keeping it at Par 70 each day.

Obviously with very little/no course form to go by, it was a bit of a reconnaissance mission to find how the course will play next week. Like most , I've relied heavily on the views of players than played in that US Amateur and the lucky handful of journos I follow on Twitter, that have actually played the course. Most of the feedback seemed to revolve around the accessibility of the fairways. U.S Open venues tend to be quite tight fairways, but not this week; the 13th is over a hundred yards wide! Brooks Koepka (who played in the US Am) said it will suit the bombers with less importance on accuracy to the fairway and more emphasis on finding the correct part of the green. U.S Open's tend to be won and lost on the greens, and this year’s renewal won't be any different. The greens themselves are massive with large slopes and banks around them, leaving proximity to the hole the key this week; it's all about where you leave it - you could find the green and still have a 60 footer, with 30 feet of burrow.

Although the course it's self is situated on the coast, they don't expect wind to be the factor that it would be at an Open Championship, but reports say it can range to a two/three club wind, if it does get up - this is probably good news for McIlroy backers. The US Open has only yielded three American born winners from the last eleven tourneys, but with the links effect (I had to tell myself not to write Lynx haha) they have a strong hand with Speith, DJ and Fowler all very able. Speith played the US Amateur at Chambers Bay and with reports that his caddy used to also be bagman there, he's sure to be a popular choice with punters this week - though all a tad too short for me. Here's who I like:

Justin Rose finished in a tie for 12th last year in his US Open defence and with a decent start run of results (save the missed cut at the Players) he will be going in this week full of confidence. He really should have got the win at Memorial, but didn't really help himself on the final day. That said, he showed again when it comes to contending, when not quite firing, he's one of the best about at grinding. He understands the importance of patience and that will be key this week. He won in New Orleans this year after finishing behind Speith at Augusta. As I said earlier, proximity to the hole will be key and when on song Rose's iron play is sublime. The thing with Rose tends to be his inconsistency with the putter, when it's hot he contends, when it’s cold it puts more pressure on his approach play. But he is a past champ

Justin Rose at 20/1 with Paddy Power (2 pt win)

Louis Oosthuizen is a bit of a hard guy to get right. He's had quite a few injuries (seemingly) with a lot of withdrawals on US soil (six I think). But since his Open Championship win he has had some decent finishes in some of the bigger events, with a runner up finish at the Masters. All in all, you'd have to say when he's fit, he can contend, especially at links venues. I suppose it's easy to just look for links form when there isn't much course form to go on, but although he's had no wins on US soil there's plenty of substance to a few of his finishes. With some liking aspects of Chambers Bay to St Andrews, Louis won his major there by seven strokes and had a 62 in the Dunhill Links one year. His current form isn't great, but he's doesn't appear to be a consistent type and he was no form at all before his Open win. His group is likely to take quite a crowd on the first couple of days (drawn with Tiger and Fowler) but I think if the course reports ring true he will quite like the set up and hopefully bring some of his Dunhill Links form to the table.

Louis Oosthuizen at 100/1 with SkyBet 6 places (1 pt each way) 

Branden Grace is another quality links player who will be high up on many people’s 'outsiders' list this week. Like his countryman Oosthuizen, he has strong form on the links (former Dunhill Links winner), but hasn't made the same impression in the majors. Grace is a prolific winner (six on European Tour - two of which were this season) but critics will say he wins the same sort of events, at the same time of the year. But, he's still relatively young (27) and he's only going to go one way. He hasn't played as much golf in the US as Louis, but after a decent showing in the WGC Match Play, he finished T-7th at the Heritage. He's not long off the tee by any means but can scramble with the best of them and at treble figure prices on a course layout like this, I want him onside. 

Branden Grace at 150/1 with Will Hill 6 places (1 pt each way)

I scratched my head over this one for a while, but at the end of it all, couldn't get away from the price. Ernie Els is a two time U.S Open champ, he's a two time Open Championship winner and he's 200/1. His form this year is far from good, but at this time of his career, consistency is never going to be there. He still managed a Top 10 in the US Open in 2012 before his Open win, a T-4th in 2013 and a Top 10 in the USPGA last year; so perfectly able to compete. People will look back and say he's only won his fourth major because Adam Scott collapsed, but there were plenty that could of benefited and it was his 68 that did the trick. He's not the golfer he was, but like many other past champions (Tom Watson at the Open is a perfect example), he will have a lot of fond memories around similar set ups and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he found something this week.

Ernie Els at 200/1 with Paddy Power 6 places (1 pt each way) 

Last pick for me and the biggest price of the lot - Marc Warren. I've really stuck to the idea that the good links players will come out on top this week, so it's either going to be a boom or bust. Warren is another competent links player, with strong finishes in the Scottish Open in recent years. He is a three time European Tour winner and had a great weekend at the USPGA last year. Warren knows than he needs to now start competing in majors/WGCs if he wants to push on up the World Rankings and Chambers Bay could be a good place to start.

Marc Warren 300/1 with BetVictor 6 places (1 pt each way)

Be lucky!

Will we have a first time winner at Augusta this year? I think so!

The Masters 2015

The Masters is upon us once again and we've had plenty of story lines in the build up. Rory McIlroy has been a firm favourite with the bookies to cement his place in the history books by winning his career slam. We've also had a 'will he' or 'won't he' episode from the Tiger Woods camp, as Tiger decided not to play the last few weeks. He of course stated that he wouldn't be back playing until his game was good enough to compete. He declared himself a runner this week which will take some of the media hype away from McIlroy.

Tucked in behind McIlroy in the betting comes Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, the defending champ Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth. The former is not long back from his six month absence, but already has a win to his name and must be quietly confident at a venue which suits his tee to green game. The latter is just off a win and bang in contention this week in Houston.

I've stayed away from the top of the market and backed four players who have still got it all to do on the major scene, but with the games to do just that. First up is J.B Holmes, who has had a decent start to the season without getting over the line. It all started at the Farmers when he went close, but in a few of the tourneys he's had a poor weekend after a good start; the WGC and Riviera to name two. He opened with a 65 this week (although I'm writing this before the tourney finishes) so is still carrying his good play into Augusta. He has one of the main ingredients for Augusta - length - his good play has mainly come from his ball striking tee to green, as it's fair to say his putting is the weakest part of his game. His only start at Augusta resulted in a Top 25 finish; his price is a fair one and it gets some each way money from me.

Next up is Brooks Koepka, who has managed a win this year. Like Holmes, he's got length off the tee and after a Top 5 in last years US Open, feels he belongs at the top table on major weekends. Koepka plied his trade on the European Tour, which was refreshing to see for a young American. He had a couple of Top 5s on the European Tour last year before finally getting his win in Turkey, against a decent field. His win this year in the Waste Management, in what was again a good field and he must carry plenty of confidence into his first Masters.

Ryan Moore is someone I continually get wrong, but he's another guy who's had a solid wrap around season starting with a win at the CIMB Classic. He went will at the WGC but a poor final round undid all his good work there. He had a Top 5 at the Valspar and didn't tee it up this week at Houston. He had a missed cut in the Masters last year but wasn't really in any form going in, so hopefully Augusta will be a different proposition for him this year. 

Victor Dubuisson is my fourth and final pick. He's currently playing in Houston and was going well without contending the last look I had. He had two Top 10s in last two majors last year, after being a runner up in the WGC Matchplay last year, so big tournaments aren't a bother to him. All of that ensured he was part of the victorious Ryder Cup winning team, and this kid will just go from strength to strength this year if he stays injury free. His best finishes this year were a couple of Top 5s in Dubai either side of Christmas.

My picks: 

J.B Holmes each way at 66/1 (7 places) with Betfair Sportsbook  (1 pt each way) 

Brooks Koepka each way at 90/1 (5 places) with BetFred (1 pt each way) 

Ryan Moore each way at 100/1 (5 places) with Bet365 (1 pt each way) 

Victor Dubuisson each way at 110/1 (5 places) with Bet365 (1 pt each way) 

Charl is set for major number two, at Valhalla

The USPGA Championship at Valhalla

I think it's safe to say that if McIlroy turns up with the same game he's had on his last two starts, we may as well just fast-track to the Ryder Cup. I can't think of any reason to put someone off backing Rory this week. I won't be backing him myself, because of the price, but that's just *me.

*The same person who backed a one legged Tiger in the '08 US Open at 5/2. Haha!

Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville is the host for this years (the 96th) USPGA Championship. The course itself can be extended to 7,458 yards and is a Par 71. The Americans would probably describe the front nine as more links golf and the back nine as park land. Since the Ryder Cup was played in 2008, the Senior PGA was held there and after the tournament the greens were upgraded to a more heat-tolerant strain of Bentgrass (in layman's terms to stop them burning so easily).
I think if you were to look for players to back, the obvious trend would be their last start, the last 7 winners have been in the Top 25 (two had Top 5's) the week before. The other thing to look for is their record on Jack Nicklaus' courses. Nicklaus course's tend to be long and forgiving off the tee, with the emphasis on approach shots to the greens. Reports coming from the states have stated that the rough is sparse enough in the landing areas, so length is desirable but not compulsory and accuracy the same.

So although I think McIlroy will be hard beat, I do have three players to take him on with.

Charl Schwartzel has been streaky at best this year, but does fill the recent trend of USPGA winners with his T-4th finish last week at Firestone. Schwartzel's iron play hasn't been at it's best this year (ranks outside the Top 100 in Greens in Regulation) but his scrambling is pretty good (Top 25) and if your not hitting greens in Valhalla, you need to be pretty good around the greens. Although his iron play hasn't been good, his long irons have been tasty enough, ranking in the Top 10 for approaches over 200 yards; so for those strong Par 4's and the reachable Par 5, that's a nice stat to read. He also had a Top 10 at the Memorial the past two years so he clearly plays Nicklaus courses pretty well.

Jason Day is seemingly injured every other week, but reports suggest that he's over the worst of it, and although a withdrawal last week due dizziness, he's now too big not to back each way this week (six places). Day had a great start to the season where he won the WGC Matchplay, which silenced the critics (temporally) who said he didn't win enough for a guy who always seemed to be in contention in the majors. But he seemed in good spirits yesterday when leading the long drive contest at Valhalla with a 338 yards (?). He's been consistent without any great finishes at Muirfield Village (Nicklaus track) but his major record is ridiculously good for a non-winner and I've also felt outside of Augusta this would be his best chance.

My third pick is Victor Dubuisson. I've had this man in my mind for Valhalla for a while now, and backed him before the Bridgestone last week, on the exchanges, in the hope of a good finish coming into this week. He was ok, but finished in the middle of the pack. He showed this year at the Match Play that he can perform on the big stage and with USPGA being the most common win for rookie major winners, I've pulled the trigger. Victor is just an all round solid player, decent driver of the ball and has hit around 70% greens in regulation this year. I've also noticed that his short game has got a lot better and with the run off areas at Valhalla, he'll need it to be.

For a saver bet this week I've went with the notion that if McIlroy wins, he will probably lead after the first round. He's led regularly after the first round this year and roughly 10% of career PGA Tour events, he's led on the Thursday evening. So we would normally be looking for around 10/1 for FRL, but on current form I think the 15/2 on offer from Paddy Power is very fair.


My selections:

Charl Schwartzel each way @ 35/1 with Stan James (2 pts each way)
Jason Day each way with @ 70/1 with Stan James (1.5 points each way)
Victor Dubuisson each way @ 100/1 with Stan James (1 pt each way)
Rory McIlroy - First Round Leader @ 15/2 with Paddy Power (2 point win)

Bradley is back to his happy place!

WGC Bridgestone Invitational

So this is the week we will probably find out if Tiger is ready for a fight to get to the Fed-Ex Cup, and most probably a Ryder Cup spot, although the latter seems more likely at this point (has to get a Captain's pick). Tiger is an 8-time defending champ this week and being back in one of his fruitful hunting grounds is probably what the great man needs right now. Looking back at my blog in this event from 2012 (didn't do one last year) I had a max bet on Tiger and went with the headline 'Is Tiger bombproof this week?', he's anything but it, this time around. As a golf fan I'd love him to show something in the next couple of weeks, but as a punter I'm happy enough to look elsewhere.

Firestone seems to be a course where experience is key, maybe Tiger set that trend but the same players tend to do well each year. My headline pick this week is a past champ and was runner-up (albeit by a furlong or two) in his title defence. Keegan Bradley seems to have found a place that really suits his eye. He was 15th in 2011, in what could have been a lot better had he not shot 74 in the final round, he then won in 2012 when Jim Furyk thought it would be better entering the Pancake Factory than it would the winners enclosure, and then he finished runner-up to a ruthless Tiger last year. Form book = stacked. This season hasn't been a consistent one by any stretch, but a Top 5 in the Greenbrier and a Top 20 in Liverpool may have turned him in the right direction in what is an important time of the season, in Ryder Cup year.

My only other selection this week is Bubba Watson. Ironically enough he was my each way alternative to Tiger in 2012, when he was a 33/1 chance, this year, after two wins he's a 40/1 poke. He of course won the the Masters in 2012, and then again this year, but I think he's definitely a much better performer now than he was then; his 64, 64 finish at Riviera would support that. On a course where tee shots can be key, I think 40/1 on a player of Bubba's calibre is a bet most weeks. Also worth noting that a few other Masters winners (Woods, Scott, Singh) have won here, so maybe a small course link there.

My selections:

Keegan Bradley @ 25/1 with Bet365 (2 pts each way)
Bubba Watson @ 40/1 with Bet365 (1 pt each way)

No time like the present, for Sergio.

The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool (Hoylake)

These days there are more sightings of Santa Claus than there is of my blog, but we are going for three out of three in the Majors this year.

Royal Liverpool hasn't changed much since Tiger plotted his way around in 2006, with the course only lengthened by 80 odd yards, a couple of bunkers moved and a few run off areas around the greens altered. But what will be noticeable is how lush the course is, compared to the bouncy, burnt grass in '06. I read an interesting stat somewhere (possibly an article) that Hoylake is the only course on the Open rota that finishes with a Par 5, and only one of five that hosted a (any) major in the last 20 years that ended with a par 5 (Hoylake, Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, Valhalla and Baltusrol. Interesting (or not) that Tiger won four of them (but that's when he was still winning majors!).

Of the players at the top of the market, I found it easier to get away some more than others. I don't think I'll ever back McIlroy in an Open, he gets nervous when there's a hair dryer in the vicinity, never mind gusts coming off the Irish Sea. Rose has a terrible record on the links, granted a nice win last week, but going for three wins in a row is a massive mental effort (although he went on record as saying he didn't feel the last two wins took anything out of him). Scott was tougher to get away from, but price and current form managed to pursuant me to avoid. Mickelson is having a poor season, results-wise, but has shown glimpses and wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts up a strong defence. Kaymer is too short after his US Open (that'a boy) win, although his links form (Alfred Dunhill) had me massively debating it and Tiger, well he has a lot to prove, probably just too much to make him a betting proposition   but I'd love to see him put on a show. On to who I do like this week:

Sergio Garcia - YES I AM BETTING WITH MY HEAD AND NOT MY HEART, maybe a bit of both, but not without reason. He had a share of 5th in 2006, in what was a pretty poor season for him going in. Garcia goes to Hoylake in much better form this year with a lot of Top 10s and his win in Qatar at the start of the year. I'm adamant that Sergio's best chance of winning a major is an Open. Some people hate it when I mention his ball-striking ability, but win, lose or draw it rarely changes. I hope it blows a gale and he can plot his way round with his punched tee shots and hopefully keep his much improved putting up. He should of won one already and that won't be lost on him. He seems a different fella these days, now that he's settled down with his girlfriend and his positive messages on social media in recent months haven't gone unnoticed for a guy where confidence is everything (almost everything).

Next up is Shane Lowry. I'm pretty sure this will be the first time I've decorated the mahogany when it comes to this man. I was always kind of conscious that he could of been a flash in the pan, after his win as an amateur. It's a bit like a handicapper winning a listed race at York, you can't help but feel, the uniqueness of the track favoured him, the usual suspects didn't turn up and someone pancaked it a furlong from home. But as usual, I found myself backing away from the cookie jar; he's turned into a steady pro. The two time tour winner now always gets taken into concentration,  when two out of the following three apply - 1. The tournament could be effected by poor weather 2. It's a links course 3. He's priced up at three figures - this week has even surpassed Meatloaf's expectations, as he ticks all three boxes. Of course, although Irish, he doesn't hail from one of our many great links courses (plays out of Carton House), but he can play links as well as the rest of them, and always pleasing to see a good showing in a Dunhill Links when looking for your Open picks (3rd in 2013).



Third up this week is Jamie Donaldson. A missed cut last week doesn't bother me too much, as he was in form and has previous on a links. Donaldson seems to be a permanent dark horse these days, popping up in someone's preview in all the big events. After finally getting over the line for his maidan tour win in the Irish Open at Royal Portrush, he seemed to appear whenever the big cheques were on the table; a Top 10 in the USPGA the same year (2012), he has had runner up finishes in Turkey, South Africa and the WGC Cadillac Champ and a win in Abu Dhabi, averaging his earnings to around half a million sterling each of those weeks. That keeps the bank manager happy. After a missed cut in the US Open this year, he had a couple of solid Top 5's at the BMW and the Open de France and with his victory at Royal Portrush still in my memory, he makes the list.

*Quack Quack* El Pato is my fourth pick this week. Angel Cabrera winning two weeks ago was a surprise to some, but he's not exactly a guy you could pin point to a win. He still plays a lot of his golf closer to home, and I must admit I don't follow him outside of the main tours, but nine missed cuts and a victory this season on the PGA Tour tells it's own tale. The trend with Angel, is that there's never a trend. He had no form to speak of going into either of his previous major wins. He finished 7th here in 2006 and does tend to turn up at the bigger events, so I'll back him at the prices to buck a trend and actually continue in good form for more than one week!


At massive prices KJ Choi tempted me at 200/1, with over 300/1 available on the exchanges, but couldn't quite justify it. A saver bet comes in the form of Matteo Manassero to finish in the Top 20 at 11/2 with Stan James. Mannasero returned to some form last week in Scotland and although doesn't have the Open record I'd expect him to have, he is a Silver Medal winner and of course a British Amateur Champ, so that's good enough for me at the prices.

My Selections:

Sergio Garcia at 28/1 with Coral (2 point win) 
Shane Lowry at 125/1 with Stan James (1 point each way) 6 PLACES
Jamie Donaldson at 75/1 with Stan James (1 point each way) 6 PLACES
Angel Cabrera at 75/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way) 7 PLACES
Matteo Manassero at 11/2 for Top 20 finish with Stan James (2 point win)

Rors to win US Open No2 at Pinehurst

The US Open at Pinehurst No2.

This week we are in North Carolina at Pinehurst #2 for the US Open. I always think that it’s the most emotional major for the players. Strange comment, maybe, but there’s always tears or some sort of sob story. Maybe it’s because it always concludes on Father’s Day, not sure. I'd say the neutral golf fan will be cheering on Mickelson this week to complete his 'Grand Slam' - so we can expect more tears if that happens. After picking Bubba Watson (among others!) for the Masters let’s see if we can make 2 out of 2 in this majors.

Pinehurst No2

The course itself is just after (2011) a restoration by Ben Crenshaw and his partner to change some of the outlay of the original Donald Ross design. I listened to an interview by Ben Crenshaw this morning in the hope of picking up some tips on who it might suit, but came away feeling nervous for the fella. He seemed very conscious that this course was one of all time great courses in America and he was almost scared to touch it. What I did learn was that the course is now a lot more open off the tee, it’s been lengthened and the rough is now ‘wispy rye grass, sandy and little tufts of grass’ – he was also quoted as saying ‘it will be pot luck off the fairways, you can have a recoverable lie, or you could get a poor lie and have to chip out; it’s all natural though.’ I think it’s safe to say that like any other US Open (bar Rory’s) pars will be good scores and you’ll have to earn your score. On to who I like this week…

My Selections

My main pick this week is Rory McIlroy. McIlroy has had an interesting few weeks, with the breakup of his engagement to Caroline Wozniacki and a victory at Wentworth. Both of which most people wouldn’t of seen coming! Wentworth was a course that McIlroy was never too fond of, vocally saying that it was a course he struggled to find his game on. So to find a win, to end a week that he was subject of mass media presence for his off the course issues, it spoke volumes of the talent the man has. But it should be noted that it wasn’t a win out of the blue; Rors had a host of Top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour (six in total) going into the European Tour’s flagship event. One of these Top 10s came at the Memorial Tournament, where in his opening round he holed 16 out of 16 putts from inside 15 feet. Ridiculous. If he can somehow find that putting stroke again this week, on greens which will (usually) be much faster, I fancy him to be bang there on Sunday. He has all the attributes needed to win here, long off the tee, relatively straight, great long iron player and a super short game. One of the reasons I think he plays so well at USGA events is because his high towering irons are perfect for holding on to quick greens. That said, with the weather forecast, the course mind not play as bouncy as it can do.

My second pick this week is Webb Simpson. When you look at Simpson’s performance stats, it’s easy to see why he already has a US Open in the bag. He won’t be the longest off the tee this week, but he’ll find plenty of fairways. I’m sure the comments about the course being a little friendlier to errant drivers wasn't really what he wanted to hear. Simpson has had a quiet few months since a win in October (start of the 2014 season), then a run of good finishes right through February. It was a positive to see him closing with a 66 for third last week and hopefully he carries that momentum into this week. A stat that will be against Rose this week was also against Simpson last year – only 4 players have finished in the Top 15 in their title defence – Simpson was a solid T-32 last year. He is one of the better scramblers on tour and that’s what will hopefully stand him in good stead come Sunday. Simpson has been vocal in the past about being a fan of Donald Ross designs and hopefully the restoration by Crenshaw will fit his eye too.

My third pick this week is Dustin Johnson. Big DJ is always on the shortlist when ‘length of the tee’ is mentioned in any course guide. He is the second longest on the PGA Tour this season, in what has produced a mixed bag of results. After his victory at the back end of last year I assumed (like last year) he was only going to kick on from there; but he hasn’t. DJ has had a few Top 10’s (two of which were runner up finishes), but for a guy that hits so many greens (in regulation) it’s easy to spot his weakness. Putting isn’t a weakness that you can afford to have any week on tour, let alone on the slick US Open greens, but his putting is on and off and will undoubtedly tell the tale of DJ’s week at Pinehurst. He will feel he has unfinished business in the US Open after he bombed out with an 82 in 2010 when he seemed in control heading into the final day and after closing with a 67 last week, he is another carrying some momentum going forward.

My fourth and final outright pick is Martin Kaymer. The ice cool German is back to form after a long period of poor golf (by his standards), but because of that, he’s now a tad short as a betting proposition this week. I don’t know off the top of my head what price he’d of been ante post for the US Open, pre-Sawgrass, but I can hazard a guess at 150s-ish. But would you of backed him then? He has had some form in previous US Opens (Top 20 in ’12, Top 10 in ’10) and when you look at his performance stats you can see why. He’s a great driver of the golf ball, long-ish and straight and his iron play is very solid. But when it comes to scrambling, it doesn’t make great reading. That said, he scrambled well at Sawgrass and putts well under pressure when in the mix. I think the course will fit Kaymer’s eye very well and after reading what the players have said regarding the course changes (more of a links feel) I feel more positive about this.

After reading Ben Coley’s ranting on Twitter about the value in backing Rory McIlroy to be First Round Leader in events that should suit him, I told myself I would, when I fancied him for the win. I don’t have an exact stat of how many times he’s lead after the first round, but I imagine it must now be well over 10 times in the last few years. When the First Round Leader market was first offered by bookmakers, you used to find Tiger Woods was around the same price as he was to win the event (usually 3/1!). But with McIlroy you tend to get a nice price, and this week is no different. So I’m on!

Be lucky!

My Selections:

Rory McIlroy to win @ 12/1 with Stan James – 2 pts win

Webb Simpson @ 50/1 (6 places) with Will Hill – 1 pt each way

Dustin Johnson @ 40/1 (6 places) with Stan James – 1 pt each way

Martin Kaymer each way @ 40/1 (6 places) with Stan James – 1 pt each way

Rory McIlroy – First Round Leader at 20/1 with Stan James – 1 pt win