Who will be the 10 million dollaaaa man?!

The Tour Championship at Eastlake 

So the Fed Ex Cup comes to an end this weekend at the Tour Championship. This week the 30 players will be faced with East Lake GC, which has hosted the tourney since 2004 (it alternated before that). 

East Lake has been redesigned four times, most recently in 2008 by Rees Jones. The course is a Par 70 for the Tour Championship and measures 7154 yards with the rough and greens being Bermuda grass, throw in 72 bunkers and it's a tough task if you're not at the top of your game. That said the course record is 60, shot by Zach Johnson in 2007, so there's low scores possible too. Last year the toughest hole on the course was the 5th, a 520 yard Par 5 which is converted into a Par 4 for theTour Championship. The easiest hole was the Par 5 15th hole which measures just 5 more yards than the 5th, so the players can get home in two, expect a few eagles.

My first selection this week is sure to be a popular one, at the prices (only 30 man field) I think Tiger Woods is the bet this week. Tiger has won two Tour Championships before ('99, '07) but only one of them came at East Lake. Of his 48 rounds at the Tour Championship 31 have been in the 60's. In the Fed Ex tourneys so far he was T-38th at the Barclays but then more promising finishes of 3rd at the Deutche Bank Championship and T-4th at the BMW Championship. The most notable aspect of Tiger's game has been his poor scoring over the weekend. He's ranked 2nd in 'Pre cut' scoring average but only 53rd in the third round and 23rd in the final round. As a performance stat the part of his game that as pleased me the most this year is his driving, he doesn't have as many wild ones, he ranks 6th in 'Total Driving'. Of course there will be plenty pointing out that his three wins this season have all came on courses he has won before; let's hope that continues this week.

My second selection this week is Sergio Garcia. Sergio has had a win and a 3rd place finish in his last three tourneys, in that time he has also had a week off (Deutche Bank) and a T-24th in the BMW Championship. He has past form at East Lake when he got beat in a play off by Camillo Villegas and with the Ryder Cup on the horizon he'll want to continue his late summer form which saw him land a Ryder Cup place with a win at the Wydham Championship. The Europeans are getting plenty of W's enroute to Medinah and there's no reason why Sergio can't continue that run this week, hopefully he's not too rusty with limited golf in recent weeks.

My final selection is another Ryder Cup player, Jim Furyk. I've backed Furyk numerous times this season but no avail, he's winless this year with only six Top 10 finishes. He's thrown away a couple of of tourneys this year, the US Open being one, another being the WGC Bridgestone when he made a mess of the 18th and Keegan Bradley picked up the win.  Davis Love III will be hoping Furyk continues to find his touch on the greens, he led the field in 'Strokes gained through Putting' at the BMW Championship. He's also a past winner of the Fed Ex Cup and Tour Championship in 2010 and had Top 10's in the two years prior to that. His driving accuracy has been his biggest weapon when he has put himself in position this year, he's 3rd on tour in Driving Accuracy and with plenty of green side bunkers at East Lake his 3rd in Sand saves is a pleasing stat to read.

My selections are: 

Tiger Woods 11/2 Outright with Betfred 

Sergio Garcia 25/1 each way with Paddy Power

Jim Furyk 25/1 each way with BetVictor

From the European Masters in the Swiss Alps to the Deutche Bank in Boston

Omega European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre

This week the European Tour visits the very picturesque setting of Crans-sur-Sierre at the top (not the very top) of the Swiss Alps. The views are ri-dic-ulous, from a man that hails from the North Antrim coast of Ireland and appreciates scenary, it’s unbelievable. With the high altitude they will be handing out oxygen masks to Monty et al (I kid). Along with the scenary, this tourney probably provides one of the more relaxed atmospheres of the year. Bjorn summed it up in his pre-tourney presser – "It comes at a great time where it's been a long season and you go to Switzerland and there's good food and good fun and you maybe don't work as hard as you do normally.

The setting this week.

I haven’t actually had a bet on the European Tour in sometime, well my own picks anyway. If I don’t post a blog, I don’t actually do a bet! Trying to fit in research for two tourneys has proved difficult this summer so I’ve just stuck with the Stateside golf as I’m guarenteed to watch it in the evenings. On the rare (ok maybe not so rare) occasion my palms are itching for a golf bet and I haven’t time to preview I usually have a peak at Sporting Life, or in particular Ben Coley’s selections. I really can’t stand it when people write up on Twitter that they ‘tip’ so and so this week, with absolutely no write up or in fact reason for picking them. That’s not the case with Ben or Sporting Life, their articles are always very interesting with plenty of stats. Last week I rushed a post for the Barclay’s where I backed Sergio, Poults and Bubba. Garcia finished 3^rd when well beaten in the end by a very good Nick Watney, thou thankfully the place money covered the bets. But if I hadn’t of rushed I might of followed Ben who had both Lawrie (33/1) at Gleneagles and Watney (92/1, on the exchanges) at the Barclays, there’s a lesson to be learned here….

Anyways, back to the Crans-sur-Sierre which hasn’t got any less attractive in the past 10 minutes. First up this week is Jamie Donaldson. I watched Donaldson get his maiden (very overdue) victory at Royal Portrush and like most felt this would set him on his way to a decent season. He finished a creditable 7^th in the USPGA before staying on and played the Wydham Championship where he made the cut but never challenged the leaders. Tourney wise, he’s had a mixed bag here, the positives being, 3^rd last year, together with three other Top 25’s, the negatives being the four missed cuts! I think he’s definitely a new character since his win and can build on the 3^rd place finish from last year.

Jamie Donaldson

Next up is the defending champ, Thomas Bjorn. To be honest I hate putting my ‘hard earned’ on a defending champion unless it’s one of the prolific winners, i.e. Tiger, just because of the media responsibilities etc, it’s a long week. Well Tommy has had 13 European Tour victories, so I suppose he knows the craic by now. On top of playing I would of thought he will start his Vice Captain duties as well this week, with Ole being in attendance I’m sure there’s a lot to discuss! But that being said he's here for the W, he really seems to like it here. In an interview already this week, he was reminiscing of last year - "I hadn't had the belief on the golf course and I needed last year. I needed to trust and believe that when it gets tough, I can stand up and hit the golf shots that matter. And I did that at Crans." Good vibes if you ask me! He’s had a solid year without getting a win, he notched up his sixth Top 10 last week at Gleneagles. I’m happy to have an each way punt on him successfully defending.

Just as a ‘saver’ bet on the European Masters I’ve decided to have a few quid on Colin Montgomerie to have a Top 20 finish. I couldn’t bring myself to back him in the ‘Outright’ market at 150/1. But a Top 20 finish is achievable for a previous winner who is just off the back of 6^th place finish at Gleneagles last week.

My selections are:

Jamie Donaldson 30/1 each way with Bet Victor

Thomas Bjorn 25/1 with each way Paddy Power

Colin Montgomerie 5/1 Top 20 finish with Paddy Power

The Deutche Bank Championship at TPC Boston

It’s Labor Day weekend in the US, or for you that can spell, it’s Labour Day weekend in the US. Due to the holiday it’s that time of year again when our PGA Tour action starts on Friday, for Sky Sports viewers Bruce and the boys will still probably start spouting their c*ap on Thursday anyways! TPC Boston hosts this week.

TPC Boston

With the US Captains picks not been finalised yet there’s going to be a few here trying to get the attention of Davis Love 1+1+1=3 (rd). Watney threw his hat into the ring last week with his victory at the Barclay’s when Sergio left the course to read my blog and subsequently went backwards in the back 9. I kid, I kid! All jokes aside with another Top 3 finish I think Watney could earn a late call up.

First up this week is Jason Day. Like others Day needs a good finish to advance to the next round of the Fed Ex Cup at Crooked Stick (BMW Championship). Some people around the ‘bubble’ will be thinking Top 20 would be enough but I think Day will be thinking he can get the W here. He’s sure to be a popular choice with punters this week, third here last year,T-2 in 2010 and his closing 66 at the Barclays last Sunday. This year has been a disappointing one with a few missed cuts, a couple of injuries and not much else. He obviously enjoys it here, a little momentum from last Sunday coupled with good memories and he should more than cement his place at the BMW Championship.

Jason Day

My second pick is Rory McIlroy. Rors had his little hangover last week from Kiawah and I think he’ll be back on form this week. Winning the Fed Ex Cup would top off an already successful year and I think with the course (tends to produce birdies) Rors could do a Congressional/Kiawah and run away from the field if given the opportunity, he’s 2^nd in both birdie average and scoring average this year on the PGA Tour. He had a really poor mid season after a great start and he will want to finish it off in style too, he could of course head to the Ryder Cup as World Number 1 with the right results.

I was tempted to go with a third pick but I’m happy enough with my three bets in the Omega event and my two here. In reference to my earlier rant regarding tipsters on twitter if you aren’t following @BenColeyGolf, @DaveTindallGolf and @GolfBetting12 I suggest you do, there are my favs to follow at the moment, they all give insightful info pre-tourney and during it as well.

Until next time, be lucky!

My Selections are:

Jason Day @ 50/1 each way with Bet365

Rory McIlroy @ 12/1 each way with Stan James

Bethpage: The first stop on the way to $10 million!

The Barclays at Bethpage Black

Unfortunately I haven’t been getting anytime to do my blog properly these past few weeks and this week is no different! However I didn’t want to miss the start of the Fed Ex Cup Play offs so I’ve thrown together a couple of paragraphs on whom I’ve picked.

They've been warned

First up is Sergio Garcia. Last week was epic, clutch golf at it’s best, he knew the Ryder Cup pick was probably on the line and went and got the job done. Medinah just wouldn’t have been the same without him; after all it’s pretty much where it all began for him. Last time Sergio picked up a win it was on the European Tour last year and he followed it up with a win the very next week, so I’m hoping he can do the same here, granted, it’s a much stronger opposition. He finished in a tie for 10^th at Bethpage when the US Open was here in 2009 and with his confidence levels sky high I think he’s a decent each way alternative to Rors and Tiger at the head of the market.

Sergio getting the W last week

Bubba Watson is next up for a pick. I also had a few quid on him in the USPGA but he didn’t seem to be able to put everything together. But I’m sticking to my guns that he will pick up another win this season and fancy he could do well this week. He has had a successful season, major win, a couple of runners up finishes and a couple of other Top 5’s, a win in the Fed Ex Cup Play offs would top off his season nicely.

Bubba Golf

Ian Poulter is my third and final pick. His start to the final round at Kiawah Island was ridiculous! Birdies everywhere, although he faded a little in the end a Top 3 finish has pretty much guaranteed him a spot at Medinah with a Captains Pick. But with Ollie’s picks not until next Monday, Poults will want to put on another show here. He was in the Top 20 here in 2009, but with confidence sky high like Sergio’s, he could well post another Top 5 at decent odds.

The Drag Queen Poults

My Selections are:

Sergio Garcia 28/1 each way with Will Hill (5 places)

Bubba Watson 25/1 each way with Ladbrokes (6 places)

Ian Poulter 55/1 each way with Boylesports (5 places)

It won't be a war, but it'll be one hell of a battle!

The US PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (Ocean Course)

It's the last major of the season this week and it looks brutal, from a betting prospective and a playing one too. I was still building sand castles when the infamous ‘War on the Shore’ took place at Kiawah Island in 1991. From what I’ve read online the Americans were even more patriotic than usual, the Gulf War had just ended; but this time, the Yanks were at a war that they were actually welcome too, the Ryder Cup.

Kiawah Island Ocean Course

I am sure you have all read, or for the older readers saw what happened that week, but to sum it up quickly, there was poo everywhere! In the final day pairings Calcavecchia was 4 up with four holes to play against Monty and finished triple bogey, bogey, triple bogey, bogey! Wow, Pancake Factory or what?! And people talk about Scott’s finish at the Lytham! The US won the Ryder Cup that year when Langer missed a short putt on the final hole.

Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course, is a monster, designed by the master Pete Dye, it measures 7,676 yards and from what I’ve read it can be stretched further with most holes having multiple tee boxes. If it wasn’t already long enough, it’s wet this week and with ten of the holes running along the Atlantic the wind is going to play a massive part, as I said MONSTER! Another aspect of the course that is sure to get the players attention are the Paspalum greens. They have very little grain; this type of grass is used to deal with the seawater air (or so I’ve read). Tiger has stated that he has only played on these types of greens once! So expect a lot of “I just couldn’t get my speed” comments from Tiger in his pressers if things aren’t going right!

I haven’t been online much this week due to my slight obsession with the Olympics but from what I have seen it’s almost like a Barney Curley style gamble on Dustin Johnson. This bothers me for two reasons, one, its very rare a popular punt comes off and two I didn’t take the bigger antepost price even though I’ve had him in mind for months, amateur gambling at it’s very best folks! Anyways, I can’t desert the big man now so he’s my first selection this week. I have posted DJ’s performance stats a little too much recently, he seems to be a constant headline act on my blog so I’ll spare you the figures again this week. What I will say is that he has the attributes to win here, most notably his length. His short game has improved, which will be a big plus with the run off areas around the greens. There'll be a big emphasis on scrambling. I backed him last week and he just seemed to be missing something, but the PGA owes him after ‘Bunkergate’ in 2010 and hopefully he gets his revenge with a W on Sunday.

The Barney Curley gamble - Dustin Johnson

My second pick is another player I had last week, Bubba Watson. Like DJ I fancy Bubba to do well because of his power. I just don’t see how a Luke Donald or Zach Johnson type player can win this week. Length is key and as Bubba showed with his Masters victory he can also pitch and putt when required. I like mentioning omens on my blog, so here’s another…. Bubba and the Missus got custody of their son Caleb on the Monday of Masters week; Monday past they “officially” became parents! From reading the article about this, it appears the whole adoption case was a lot more complex than was first portrayed by the media, with all the T’s crossed etc Bubba might be ready for another big performance in a major.

He needs to be 'Bubba long' this week - Bubba Watson

My third pick is a past winner; a short game extraordinaire and I don’t think has ever appeared on my blog! Phil Mickelson is on a terrible run of finishes on the PGA Tour, and quite frankly I don’t know why I fancy him to go well this week! His lone victory this year did come at Pebble Beach (similar elements), which is a plus, and I think he’s got the skills for a few up and downs (sarcasm), so that’s a couple of pluses! Negatives would be his driving accuracy (168^th on tour) and as stated above his poor run of results. But I don’t think you have to be the straightest driver on tour to get round here, length from the tee will be much more important. Putting wise he’s in good shape this year and add the fact that when in position he can get the job done his price this week mumbles “value” to me so he’s getting each-way money from yours truly!

You  can't put a price on experience - Phil Mickelson

For my fourth pick I was going to have McIlroy but I have changed my mind for a bigger price option. Last years Fed Ex Cup Champ Bill Haas is another golfer who has had a very quiet/poor season after a win early on. But he has had a couple of Top 20’s in his last two outings (Open Championship, Bridgestone) which is a step in the right direction. It’s approaching that time of the year where he won a lot of dollaaa last year. He’s a consistent driver of the ball, not massively long but ranks in the Top 30 in ‘Total Driving’ this year and he can scramble too, he’s in the Top 5 for Scrambling from 30 yards or less, did I mention the run off areas? Ok, it appears I did!

Bill Haas

With my obsession of an American winner this week I thought I’d have a look at the ‘Top European’ market. GMAC jumped straight off the page to me. Luke Donald as market leader made me chuckle a little. McDowell has had a stellar year in the Majors (T-12^th, T-2^nd, T-5^th) and there’s nothing to suggest that the elements at Kiawah Island should stop him putting in another decent showing this week. Some people might say he’s in the Luke Donald, Zach Johnson group with his length off the tee, but with his love of the wind and ‘the grind’ he jumps out of that group and into the group of players that could grind their way to a good finish. At the prices I think he’s real value for ‘Top European’.

"Cheers Timmy" - Graeme McDowell

My picks are:

Dustin Johnson 25/1 each way with Paddy Power (6 places)

Bubba Watson 35/1 each way with Bet Victor (6 places)

Phil Mickelson 45/1 each way with Bet365 (6 places)

Bill Haas 75/1 each way with Bet365 (6 places)

Graeme McDowell 12/1 each way ‘Top European’ with Bet365 (4 places)

Is Tiger 'Bomb Proof' at Firestone this week?

WGC Bridgestone at Firestone Country Club

This week we have the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club. It’s one of the World Golf Championships and has no cut, which means for the slow starters you’re never too far back, unless you’re too far back! *giggles*.

 It’s a tournament that Tiger Woods used to win when he felt like it (winner in ’99, ’00, ’01, ’05, ’06, ’07, 09). However he has put in a poor showing the last couple of years (T-78 in ’10, T-37 last year). Although it’s fair to say Tiger’s game wasn’t in the same shape as it has been this year. His three wins this year have all came in familiar territory to him, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Congressional, multiple winner at each course. So it’s quite clear he plays the same courses well. Some people might say 5/1 is short, roll back a few years and you would have been lucky to get 5/2 at Firestone. If you aren’t convinced that Tiger is value at 5s and would rather take him on you should probably strike your bet with Paddy Power on their phone app. If Tiger Woods wins Paddy Power will give all losing punters a free bet to the value of their stake for the PGA Championship for next week. If you fancy this and don’t have a Paddy Power account you can click the banner on the right side of my page and set up an account and get up to a £50 free bet.

Tiger Wood's smiling at a Presser (pretty sure I should of paid for this pic)

On the basis that I think Tiger will get the win on Sunday I am going to do my each way alternatives in the ‘Without Tiger’ market. Paddy Power and Sky Bet are doing markets on this and it gives you a strong possibility of getting paid out on two winners on Sunday. Like most golf fans that enjoy a punt, after the Open I decided Adam Scott was the logical bet for the Bridgestone. Scott is the defending champ here, he hit the ball beautifully for 68 holes at the Open and he looked nailed on for his first major championship entering the back nine at Lytham, but it all went wrong for him. Truth be told I was shouting for Ernie in the final few holes but it wasn’t enjoyable to watch Scott throw it away (finished with four straight bogeys). I was surprised to see people comparing his back nine to McIlroy’s at the Masters (2011), it wasn’t! McIlroy had a meltdown; Scott together with Stevie Williams made poor decisions at bad times. To be honest I think Williams should have taken some criticism (especially for the tee shot on 18) but he got off scot-free (I refuse to apologise for that glorious pun). Anyways, although I think he has a great chance I won’t be backing him at a best price 18/1. I wanted bigger, I expected bigger. If he was 25/1 he’d probably be my main pick but it’s funny how your mind works when looking at prices, few points too short, and I’m out.

From a man who should of won his first major this season to a man who did. My first each way alternative to Tiger is Bubba Watson. The man is a bit of a legend in my eyes, plays golf his own way, doesn’t take lessons (where would you even start?) and for the most part (unless in France) has a carefree attitude on the course. I think it was to be expected that his performances after the Masters would be a little subdued. Not only did he win his first major (in a play off) but just before that he and his wife Angie adopted a baby (Caleb). So it’s fair to say he’s had quite a year! With Firestone measuring 7,400 yards it should suit a ‘big hitter’, Tiger was the ‘big hitter’ for the majority of his wins here. Bubba’s ranks 1^st in Driving Distance’ and not surprisingly considering he wedges it to most Par 4’s is 1^st in Greens in Regulation this year. Bubba has played here twice and notched up a couple of solid Top 25s but it should be noted he lead after a 64 in his opening round in 2010. Other than his Masters win he has had two other second place finishes this season, one was at the Cadillac Championship, so he picks the big money tourneys to play well! Hopefully he will win a lot more dollaaaa come Sunday, he needs it, it’s expensive raising a child, well so the 'owl doll' (*in a Northern Ireland accent*) told me anyway!

The caricature that Bubba uses as his Twitter avatar

I’m sticking to the big hitters with my second and final alternative to Mr Woods. Dustin Johnson was my highest placed pick at the Open Championship, unfortunately for him the rest of my picks were crap and his 9^th place finish won the honours. I’m adamant DJ is going to pick up another win this year (fingers crossed for Kiawah Island next week) and I am determined to have my money decorating the mahogany when he does. At Firestone his low round, like Bubba’s, came in 2010, in the shape of a 65 on the Saturday. His three appearances have been solid with a couple of Top 25s, but it is a course that should suit and I think his game is ticking along nicely. The thing with DJ is getting a couple of aspects of his game working well at the same time, if it comes together he’ll be bang there and if Tiger falters he can pick up a big prize before he heads off to Kiawah Island. 

Dustin Johnson

I am sure most of you who read my blog know by now; I don’t claim to be a ‘tipster’. I do a write up on the golfers who I am backing myself; if you read my blog and think there’s a little truth to what I am saying by all means have a punt. I say this, as this week due to my betting in the ‘W/O Tiger’ market I am going to write up my staking plan beside my bets. It’s straightforward and most of you will say it’s a pretty obvious one but I thought I’d do it anyway.

My Selections are:

Tiger Woods @ 5/1 with Will Hill (3 pt win)

Bubba Watson @ 33/1 with Bet Victor (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Bubba Watson @ 25/1 ‘W/O Tiger’ with Sky Bet (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Dustin Johnson @ 35/1 with Stan James (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Dustin Johnson @ 25/1 ‘W/O Tiger’ with Paddy Power (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Will it be a 16th different Major Champ in a row come Sunday?

2012 Open Championship at Royal Lytham and St Anne’s

This week Royal Lytham and St Anne’s’ hosts the 141^st Open Championship. The famous championship has been played here ten times previously and there are some illustrious winners; Seve won twice (’79, ’88), Player won in ’74 and Bobby Jones won in 1926. The most recent victor was David Duval in 2001 when he joined a long list of players to win a major and then disappear (last spotted in a Burger King in April 2004), I joke! The course has been lengthened since then with the Par 70 course now measuring 7.118 yards.

The Claret Jug at Royal Lytham and St Anne's

I’m no Michael Fish but I don’t think the weather is going to be as bad as first forecast. However if the weather is bad I am sure one fella that will feel at home is British Amateur Champion Alan Dunbar. Alan skipped the North of Ireland Championship last week to prepare for his first appearance at a major championship. I am sure he will get plenty of advice from big Darren and I hope he goes out and enjoys himself; he’s drawn in a nice group with Adam Scott and Matt (Kuuuuuuccchh) Kuchar.

When looking through the list of previous Open Champions there is a notable trend, 10 of the last 15 champions had already picked up at least one tour victory that season before teeing it up in their respective Open wins. The five that didn’t were – Stewart Cink (2009), Padraig Harrington (2008), Ben Curtis (2003) and David Duval in (2001).

It’s harder than ever to pick the winner of a major with 15 different winners of the last 15 majors, the strength in depth of both the PGA Tour and European Tours is phenomenal. With Tiger Woods not dominating the majors anymore (hasn’t won any since US Open ’08) the bookies have finally started to give the punters some sort of price on him, he’s a general 9/1 this week (10s with Ladbrokes). With regards Tigers chances this week I think the weather over the last few weeks will hinder his game more than the weather in the next few days. Confused? Well going by reports and Tiger’s own comments the course is wet, the rough is very lush and it will penalise poor accuracy from the tee. Although I think Tiger’s driving has improved no end this year I wouldn’t of thought twice about putting my hard earned cash (I’m a Civil Servant) *waits for the laughing to stop* on a Tiger win if the course was firm and bouncy. No one can forget how he won at Hoylake, stinger shots from the tee with the 3 wood, plenty of crushed iron shots for position, it was just phenomenal course management. But this week with the soft course he can’t afford to lose out on distance off the tee, which means the driver will be on display and if he doesn’t have control of it I don’t think he’ll be winning his 15^th major.

I usually try and keep my picks to two or three on my blog each week, but as it’s a major and I don’t have any ante-post bets I have had five goes to try and come out with the winner come Sunday. I have stuck with the trend that I think the winner on Sunday will have lifted silverware at some stage already this season.

My first pick this week is Dustin Johnson. Big DJ has appeared a few times this year on my blog and of course returned a 22/1 winner for me when winning the St Jude Classic. It has been an injury-plagued season for Johnson with a back injury that kept him out of action for nearly three months. Before his injury in March he had already racked up three Top 10’s so with limited starts he’s had quite a decent season thus far and surely he’ll add a major to his wins sooner rather than later. He finished T-2 last year at Royal St Georges’s, his shank on the 14^th (I think) was costly, big Darren Clarke went on to get the W. DJ’s driving accuracy stat isn’t exactly spectacular (worse than Tiger’s) but he only hit 50% of the fairways last year and nearly got it done. The thing to remember when looking at stats is that whether you miss the fairway by 2 yards or 22 yards it still only goes down as a one missed fairway! I think at the prices Dustin Johnson is good value and offers a real each way opportunity.

Big bad Dustin Johnson

My second selection this week is Ben Curtis. He was on the same list as David Duval, Todd Hamilton, Shaun Micheel et al after his major win at Royal St George’s in 2003, he disappeared. He re-surfaced in 2006 and won a couple of tourneys on the PGA Tour (Booz Allen Classic, ’84 Lumber Classic), but it was back to the doldrums after that. However he’s back with a bang this year. He won the Valero Texas Open and has backed it up with two other Top 5 finishes, which included a T-2 at the Players Championship. His stats support his renaissance; he’s 3^rd in Driving Accuracy, 6^th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 3^rd in Strokes gained through Putting. He doesn’t hit the ball far (averages just 278 yards from the tee) but it’s easier to play from the fairways than it is from the car park, well unless your name is Seve!

Ben Curtis kissing the Claret Jug in 2003

My third selection is Rickie Fowler. Fowler has been the one fella that I was always going to back. However unlike others I didn’t get on ante-post but still think there’s value there. Fowler finally got his maiden title at the Wells Fargo this year (in a play off) and to say it was overdue was an understatement. It was clear he just needed to get the monkey off his back; he backed that win up with a T-2^nd the very next week at Sawgrass (The Players). I think Fowler will be a popular choice with the punters this week and for those who remember his 68 on the Saturday last year (finished 5^th) in pretty nasty conditions they will be confident if the poor weather does arrive he will be able to cope a lot better than the Americans usually do. The only negative I have with Fowler is his putting but the positives out way that.

Rickie Fowler in his Sunday orange

My fourth selection is Rafael Cabrera-Bello. RCB like the others has already picked up a victory this year, his came at the Dubai Desert Classic in February where he beat a strong field, which included Tiger Woods. Since then he has picked up a few Top 3 finishes, the latest being a Runner up finish at Royal Portrush (Irish Open). Like Fowler ball striking is his strength and links golf courses are where he can illustrate that best. He drives the ball well and hits a load of GIR; he averages nearly 75% this year on the European Tour. He had a poor Sunday at the Scottish Open last week (shot 78) so let’s hope he got rid of most of his poor shots then!

Rafael Cabrera-Bello

My fifth and final selection is another past champion, Paul Lawrie. Since winning the Open at Carnoustie in ’99 he doesn’t have a great Open record, his best finish was actually here in 2001 when 42^nd. He won the Qatar Masters in February and has also had five other Top 10 finishes this year. Lawrie chose not to play in the US Open at Olympic Club to stay in Europe and concentrate on Ryder Cup qualification. Lawrie has all the tools to win another Open Championship and show that his first wasn’t a fluke (Van de Velde went deep burn diving). The one negative I have with Lawrie these days is that he seems to get very frustrated very easily and often drops the head when things aren’t going right, he displayed this by storming off after his defeat at the Volvo and refusing interviews, he subsequently apologised. I don’t suspect that everyone believes in omens but if you do…. Lawrie picked up a victory in the ’99 season prior to the Open; it came in the Qatar Masters.

Paul Lawrie with the Claret Jug in 1999

My selections are:

Dustin Johnson 50/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Ben Curtis 100/1 each way with BetVictor (6 places)

Rickie Fowler 40/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Rafael Cabrera-Bello 125/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Paul Lawrie 70/1 each way with Stan James (7 places)

The Italian Job in Scotland and history making Stateside

Well I’m back from my little trip back home to Ireland and all in all it was a great trip. I nipped to Royal Troon for the British Amateur, went to Carton House for a two day golf trip with the lads and of course was at the Irish Open at Royal Portrush. The negative of the trip was it lashed it down pretty much the whole time I was there. My local club (Ballycastle Golf Club) got closed for a day because it was flooded (see pic below). Fast forawrd one week and in London the rain still hasn’t stopped, it’s nearly Arc building time! For anyone who follows amateur golf the North Of Ireland Championship started this week at Portrush, two stroke play rounds to qualify for the match play stage, one at Royal Portrush and the other at GMAC’s home club Rathmore. My mate (Jango) is the only Ballycastle man playing this week and shot he 73, 74 and is currently sweating on qualification as I write this. The low round today (63) and new course record at Royal Portrush came from Dermot McElroy, he played in the Irish Open, so got plenty of practise! I'd say keep an eye out for him in the future, he’s going to be top notch!

The 1st Green at Ballycastle Golf Club

The Scottish Open @ Castle Stewart

Anyways, less of my jibber jabber *finishes Snickers* on to the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart. If you roll back to this time last year we had similar weather and subsequently the Scottish Open was reduced to 54 holes and was won by Luuuuuuke Donald. As I am sure you know, 54 holes is all the course form we have for the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart as that was the tournaments first appearance there after its long affiliation with Loch Lommand finished in 2010. But I’m still using last year’s results to influence my judgement this week. I have two selections and they have a similarity, neither have actually won on the European Tour yet *waits for silence* but both placed 3^rd here last year and both have a little form on the links, so here goes…

First up is Lorenzo Gagli. I followed this guy around Royal Portrush for a little and two things became very clear, one he drives the ball in the rough a lot (58% Driving Accuracy) and two, he tends to get back out of it ok! Unfortunately after a nice start in the Irish Open he shot a 76 on the Saturday, however most of the poor scores came on Saturday afternoon so maybe give him a bye ball for that. He was 8^th in the Irish Open in ’11 and T-3^rd here (Castle Stuart) last year, so he seems to like the cold and the wet! On a serious note he seems to like links golf and although he hasn’t had any Top 10’s this year (six last year), I think he’s worth some each-way money at 125/1.

Lorenzo Gagli

My second selection is George Coetzee. He was bang there last week in France but had a poor round (76) on Sunday and finished down the field. He has had a few chances to get his first win, but hasn’t got over the line yet. Coetzee had a solid start to the year with four Top 10s before May (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Korea & China) but hasn’t picked one up since; his highlight of late was probably his closing 66 at Wentworth in the European Tour’s flagship event. But he’s another guy that plays well on Links courses, T-3^rd here last year and was also 3^rd in the Alfred Dunhill Links as well. Some people might say (queue the tweet) that 50/1 is a poor price considering three time winner Brandon Grace is the same price but I like Coetzee’s chances this week so a 50/1 winner will have to do *giggles*. South Africans have a 25% strike rate in the Scottish Open since 2000 so that’s a good omen!

George Coetzee

My Selections:

Lorenzo Gagli 125/1 each way with SportingBet

George Coetzee 50/1 each way with Bet365

John Deere Classic @ TPC Deere Run

Welcome to The Steve Stricker Show! It’s been talked about all week that Steve Stricker is going for four wins in a row at TPC Deere Run and is bidding to join the elite to win the same tourney four times in succession. Young Tom Morris, Hagen, Sarazen and Tiger (twice) have all done it and if Stricker wins the birdie fest this week he can pull a seat up to the table.

To be honest it’s pretty tough not to pick the tourney fav, when you see that Donald is a similar price in Scotland you can’t help but feel the bookies are giving the punters a chance with Stricker. Granted he hasn’t been setting the world alight since his win in Hawaii but if this were anyone else inside the Top 5 in the world you’d be looking at 4/1 tops! He came into this tourney off the back of the US Open the past three years but played the Greenbrier (T-22) last week, if he finds his putting boots (72^nd in Strokes gained through Putting) we might all look a little naïve for not filling our boots with the 8s on offer yesterday!

Steve Stricker (last year at TPC Deere Run)

I think like last year it’s going to take a low number to get the W this week, it should be a birdie blitz, which points me to Carl Pettersson. Bet everyone thought I was going to say Brendan de Jong! Haha. Pettersson is having a hugely inconsistent season, which as resulted in a win, two runner-ups finishes and six missed cuts. But this is a guy that can go low, shoots 65 and 66s for fun when he gets that big broom handle putter working well. It’s plain to see when looking at his stats that accuracy is his problem but when he gets the ball on the green he picks up shots on the field (12^th in Strokes gained through Putting). Let’s hope he drives it straight (like frozen rope, a JF special) and gives himself plenty of look ins, if he does it could be win number two of the season at tasty odds!

Carl Pettersson (at The Heritage)

My Selections:

Steve Stricker @ 7/1 Outright (General)

Carl Pettersson @ 40/1 each way (General)