Charlie Howell to make it third (III) time lucky!

The PGA Tour



Zurich Classic of New Orleans



The Zurich Classic of New Orleans will be the fifth event held at TPC Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina. The course like most other places in New Orleans suffered damage and subsequently got altered before the course hosted the tournament in ’07. TPC Louisiana measures 7.520 yards and is essentially a shot maker’s golf course, this highlighted no more so when Bubba Watson won last year.



One of my old favourites has plenty of tournament form and I expect after a renaissance to his golf game of late that he will be there or thereabouts come Sunday. Charles Howell III hasn’t missed a cut in 9 appearances in the tournament and has twice been Runner-up (’06,’09). His driving is his Achilles heel and usually dictates his position on the leader board, but regardless of his poor driving stat (142ndin Driving Accuracy) his previous tourney form is a big positive. Howell III is in the Top 40 in GIR (Greens in Regulation) which is pretty good considering he doesn’t seem to get the chance to hit his approaches from too many fairways!



Charles Howell III during his third round last year at TPC Louisiana


 



Jason Dufner is my other selection in New Orleans this week. Dufner reminds me of a young Freddie Couples with his stress free approach to golf. Ironically playing with Freddie at Augusta seemed to be a hindrance and Dufner dropped down the leader board after a very promising start. Since the Masters, Dufner has teed it up at the Heritage where he finished in a T-24. Again, like Howell III, Dufner has solid tourney form with Top 10’s in each of his last three appearances at TPC Louisiana. As a person who likes his stats it was pleasing for me to see that Dufner is inside the Top 10 in the ‘all round ranking’ on the PGA Tour, this gets calculated from your GIR, Driving and Putting stats. It should be noted that putting is far from his strength and he hasn’t actually been in the Top 100 in the putting stats in four years! But Dufner has had a real progressive year, after missing the cut in his seasonal reappearance he has made his last ten on the trot, racking up Top 25 finishes in the last four events he has started.




My Selections:

Charles Howell III 45/1 Each way and 4/1 Top 10 Bet365

Jason Dufner 28/1 each way with BetFred





European Tour



Ballantines Championship 


This week’s “European” Tour action comes from Blackstone GC in Seoul, South Korea. Lee Westwood has chosen not to come and defend his title this week and has therefore left Adam Scott at the head of the betting. Scott has a great record in Asia and is a previous winner so he is a deserving favourite this week with the book makers. Although I am a massive Scott fan, as my readers well know by now, I am going to avoid him this week as he hasn’t shown me anything this season to have me put some hard earned (in case the bosses are reading) cash on him at a single figure price.



At a bigger price I fancy Jbe Kruger to go well. The South African is a fiery little man, who only stands 5’5” tall but has still managed to average over 300 yards off the tee this season. He already has a ‘W’ this season, this coming when he won the Avantha Masters in India. He finished seventh in this event last year on his only appearance and hopefully has some fond memories. Kruger has notched up three other Top 20 finishes outside of his victory. As stated above he hits the ball along way but also boasts an impressive GIR percentage, averaging nearly 75% so far in 2012.



Thorbjørn Olesen is another player trying to establish himself as a European Tour player. He finally got his victory that many had touted in the Sicilian Open. Olesen has huge potential and many regard him as a future Ryder Cup player, whether Medinah comes too early or not, he will certainly feature sooner rather than later. The key to his performances so far this season has been his putting, averaging only 28.46 putts per round he’s sure to make up a couple of strokes on the field each week. With three Top 10’s already this year he has certainly settled in nicely on tour and I think he will most definitely notch up another victory this season, let’s hope it’s this week!



My Selections:


Jbe Kruger 40/1 each way with Will Hill 


Thorbjørn Olesen 40/1 each way with BetVictor

Jim'll fix it at Harbour Town!

RBC Heritage

One of my favourite events on the PGA Tour takes place this week at Harbour Town Links, Hilton Head. The 18^th hole is one of the most epic finishes on the PGA Tour and is always sure to produce drama come Sunday evening.

18th hole at Harbour Town

The 2010 champ Jim Furyk is fresh off a Top 15 finish at the Masters and I expect him to put in another good showing at the Heritage.  In the last 7 years he has 4 Top 10’s; these include his 2010 win and two Runners-up finishes. Furyk has had a good start to 2012 after a very disappointing 2011, he put in a good showing at Bay Hill after a playoff defeat at the Transitions Championship. Driving will be key this week and Furyk is statistically the straightest driver on tour. If Jim gets the putter going he should be there or thereabouts on Sunday.

My other selection this week has plenty of course form as well. Bo Van Pelt has finished in the Top 15 50% (3 from 6) of time he has teed it up at Harbour Town. More importantly though Van Pelt turns up with plenty of momentum; he closed with a 64 at Augusta for a Top 20 finish. Van Pelt has some impressive stats beside his name; he is ranked 1^st in Total Driving and 1^st in the All Round Ranking (this takes in GIR, Putting and Driving). Bo has 4 Top 10’s this year which is the most on tour and hopefully he can give his supporters another good sweat this week.

My Selections:

Jim Furyk @ 18/1 each way with Bet365
Bo Van Pelt @ 25/1 each way with BetFred

Maybank Malaysian Open

With Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen travelling to Malaysia from Augusta there is plenty of class at the head of the market.  Although all three have the class to run away with this tourney I am taking the gamble that they will be feeling the effects of the Masters, especially Runner up Oosthuizen.

Matteo Manassero is the defending champ this week, and I fully expect him to put on a great defence. Manassero has already racked up 3 Top 10’s this year and was very unfortunate to miss out on the Masters himself. He didn’t hide the fact that he wanted a good start to the season to push his way up the rankings and into the Masters, even with the Top 10’s he came up shy. Manassero has 2 wins on the European Tour and I fancy him to make it 3 this week.

Matteo Manassero lifting the trophy last year

Michael Hoey hasn’t been seen since his sensational win in the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco where he shot a pair of 65’s over the weekend to get the ‘W.’ Although Hoey isn’t a household name like his Northern Irish counterpart Rory McIlroy he actually has more victories than him on the European Tour (4>3). Hoey is an inconsistent sort, he’s very hard to catch right, but with 4 victories on tour and 4 victories on the Challenge Tour it’s clear when he puts himself in position he gets the job done. He found the putter working for him over the weekend in Morocco and his Putts per Green (1.77) stat is the best it’s been in 5 years on the European Tour. His biggest win was probably at the Alfred Dunhill, holding off Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington, 3 major winners. Maybe it’s an omen and he can hopefully hold off another 3 this week.

My Selections:

Matteo Manassero @ 16/1 each way with Ladbrokes (5 places)

Michael Hoey @ 60/1 each way with Bet365 (5 places)

Donald in 'Stealth Mode' to grab the Green Jacket

Masters week has finally arrived and to say I’m buzzing with anticipation for Thursday is an understatement. I think there’s a different feel to the Masters than any of the other majors.



I don’t remember a Masters in recent years with this type of build up, the media have really exhausted the whole Tiger versus Rory match up in recent days, but you can understand why. When Rory won the US Open last year everyone practically awarded the next few majors to him without a tee shot being hit. This was down to two main reasons, one being; they argued that McIlroy was only going to get better, and the second reason was that he didn’t have any long term competition to speak of. To be honest I agreed with them, Tiger was in the depths of despair with his game, Mickelson was getting on a little and there didn’t look to be anyone up and coming with enough talent to challenge his week in week out. But roll on 9 months, Tiger has found his swing again with Sean Foley, Keegan Bradley has turned into a real class act and Luke Donald just seems to be a thorn in everyone’s side.

Obviously everyone has their opinion on Tiger; I do, and like everyone I’ve aired mine a few times. But this blog is about the Masters this week so I won’t start a rant; I just hope that after this week that regardless of your opinion on Tiger the person, you will agree that golf needs Tiger Woods. Looking back through the years you see that there has been some great rivalaries, Nicklaus had Watson, Faldo had Norman, Woods and Mickelson and McIlroy will hopefully have the second coming of Tiger Woods. When watching the golf on the Saturday of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and seeing how comfortable Woods seemed to be with his swing again I cheekily tweeted a few of the big bookmakers to ask for a price on Tiger and Rory being paired together in the final group on Sunday at the Masters, I was offered 16/1 which I thought was quite reasonable and invested some of my hard earned cash!

Will we see this on Sunday?

With all of the above said, I started the blog to try and find some value in the tournaments and nothing has changed this week. With Woods and McIlroy at the head of the market and with very skinny odds I think the 16/1 on Luke Donald is a cracking each way bet, ¼ the odds for 5 places is a real banker in my opinion.  I had backed him last year when he came T-4 before he went on to having an unbelievable year, winning BOTH money titles, the first time that had ever been done. He went out and won a tournament he had to win to wrap up the money title in America, that’s delivering under pressure and that’s a quality you need if you have any intention of winning a major. After last year, pundits questioned would he be able to play again to that level, well, he’s already won again this year and retained his Number 1 spot from McIlroy, so that answers that; the win also happened to be his last start (Transitions Tournament) so he’s carrying plenty of momentum into this week.

Another Englishman I fancy to go well this week is Justin Rose. T-11 last year and already a ‘W’ this year he seems to have established himself as the player everyone hoped he would be when he burst on the scene as an amateur in the Open Championship nearly 15 years ago! When you are looking for a player to invest money in you need to find someone who hits plenty of GIR (Greens in Regulation). If you short side yourself round Augusta you drop shots, fact! Well unless it’s the 16th hole and your name's Tiger Woods, Nike made an ad from that one! Rose is comfortably inside the Top 20 in GIR and like Donald carries plenty of momentum after his win at the WGC Cadillac tourney. One thing I would say about Rose and it was well demonstrated at Bay Hill is that when his putter is cold, it’s ice cold! Hopefully this week he finds the puttering stroke he had at Doral, if he does, he’ll be bang there.

I, of course tipped up Adam Scott at the start of the season, (see Ante Post Masters post) and although I am disappointed in his season thus far he still remains a threat, T-2 last year and hasn’t played much this year.

Now for a few Top 10/20 bets. Angel Cabrera is 5/2 to finish in the Top 20 and 13/2 to finish in the Top 10. El Pato (The duck) as he is affectionately known as is a previous winner and seems to find his best form round here regardless of how he’s being playing in the weeks prior. He missed the cut the week before the Masters last year, before finished 7th, he was 73rd the week before the 2010 Masters where he notched up at Top 20 finish and in 2009 when he won the Masters he missed the cut the week before! He was T-21 last week, enough said!

Another Top 20 finish I fancy this week is Martin Laird. Laird has been a real solid player in the States. He move there to play college golf and now resides in Arizona. Laird has two PGA Tour wins, and 17 Top 10 finishes in his short time on tour. That’s pretty impressive when you think of the depth of the PGA Tour nowadays. He has had two Top 5 finishes already this year and had a real strong finish to last year; he also finished in a T-20 in the Masters in his first appearance at Augusta. The 4/1 for a Top 20 finish is well worth a punt!

You can’t really write a blog about the Masters without mentioning Freddie Couples, for obvious reasons. Couples is one of those players that every so often come along; in every sport, who people seem to relate to and cheer for regardless of how well he may or may not be playing. He is of course now plying his trade on the Champions Tour where he is still getting a few ‘W’s!  When I was thinking of putting him up as a selection I thought mhhmmmm surely he’s too old? There’s bound to better value elsewhere? But 11 Top 10’s and a victory (’92) in his career at Augusta I thought I would be crazy not to point him out. The most ridiculous stat of them all is that of those 11 Top 10’s, he’s had at least one of them in each of the last FOUR decades, boom! *dusts down shoulder* Will Hill offer 10/3 for him to grab a Top 20 finish come Sunday evening.

The Legend that is Fred Couples

With the bookies offering so many different markets it’s hard to go through them all and pick out selections. All the top firms have, Top European, Top Australasian, Top American etc, but the one that interests me is Top Debutant.  Now, the only problem with this market is, you’ve no course form to go on! Keegan Bradley is deservingly a short priced favourite (11/8) in this market as he is of course a major winner and probably the best young talent in American golf. But at that price he isn’t for me. I think everyone had to be impressed with the way Kyle Stanley won his first PGA tour event. He of course blew up the week before, throwing away a mammoth lead going into the final day. He has been a little quiet of late but in what looks like a 4 way match up for the debutant's title between Bradley, Webb Simpson, Sang-Moon Bae and Stanley I think 7/1 is very generous and will take a nibble at that.

I mentioned the bet I did regarding Tiger, Rory and the final round pairing earlier and I am sure there’ll be a few interested parties to the ‘Forecast Market.’ Yes, you read that right; in a 96 runner field the bookies have invited you to predict the 1-2. The bookies are obviously trying to line their pockets by using the media hype round Tiger and Rory and are offering 22/1 and 25/1 for the forecast. It sounds crazy and might even be called a ‘mug’ bet but let’s be honest would anyone be surprised?

My selections:

Luke Donald @ 16/1 each way with Bet365

Justin Rose @33/1 each way with BetVictor

Angel Cabrera @ 5/2 Top 20 with Stan James & 13/2 Top 10 with BetVictor

Martin Laird @ 4/1 Top 20 & 9/1 Top 10 with Stan James

Fred Couples @ 10/3 Top 20 with Will Hill

Adam Scott @ 33/1 with Paddy Power  ANTEPOST Selection

From Houston to, err, Sicily!

Shell Houston Open

With this tournament being used by a couple of the bigger names as their last preparation for Augusta it’s hard to assess who is out for the win. You may laugh, but, Phil Mickelson regularly turns up to tournaments the week before a major and practises shots he will need the following week. If Phil does turn up with the ‘A’ game and gets the ‘W’ it would mean that the Top 4 in the betting for the Masters have all won their last start before Augusta. That’s got to be a first!

Steve Stricker must be buzzing after his buddy Tiger finally got his win last week. Stricker has been Tiger's' go to guy for his putting and that’s what could get Stricker the ‘W’ this week. He already has a victory this year and notched up 3 Top 10’s in 4 events, 2 of which were the World Golf Championships. Stricker has decent tourney form as well, T-4 last year and 3 Top 15 finishes in the last 6 years which included a 3^rd place finish in ’06. His putting stats in the last 5 years have been phenomenal, consistently near the top each year. It’s no surprise to see that being in the Top 5 in Greens In Regulation (GIR) also gives him the best ranking in birdie average this year, sometimes this stuff writes itself.

Now for a big price each way. Chad Campbell is a guy who must wake up in the morning and wish that putting wasn’t a part of golf. He hasn’t been in the Top 100 of the putting stats in 3 years, with his ball striking ability that must be frustrating. He was 4^th in GIR last year and didn’t even sniff a victory. He tends to play a little better closer to home, he was T-13 last year in Houston and was T-2 in ’08. Other than that I am basing my selection more on his old form, with 4 PGA Tour victories and 11 Runner-Up finishes I just can’t get away from monster 125/1 on offer. Unfortunately Campbell is a guy that tends to lose interest pretty quickly when things aren’t going his way, so I will probably know the fate of this bet on Thursday night after the First Round!

I am going to use a second bullet this year on Paul Casey as my Top 10 bet. As mentioned in one of my earlier posts Casey is fighting his way back from injury. He’s a class act when on form and I really don’t want to miss the week he comes good. I don’t think I would be backing him to win the event but I certainly won’t be putting anyone off the 9/1 for a Top 10 finish in an event he previously won in ’09.

My Selections:

Steve Stricker 16/1 each way with Bet365
Chad Campbell 125/1 each way with Will Hill

Paul Casey  9/1 Top 10 finish with Stan James

Sicilian Open

This is only the second playing of the Sicilian Open with Raphael Jacquelin defending his trophy that he won at Verdura Golf and Spa resort. The course itself is a links course measuring 7,375 yards.

With the very little course form to pick through I decided to have a bit of a punt on someone who has shown little form of late but has plenty of form on the links! Chris Wood has had two Top 5 finishes at the Open Championship, one of those coming when he still had amateur status. When he turned pro I think a lot of people including myself thought he would become a solid tour player and would get a few victories under his belt. That hasn’t materialised with Wood picking up a few injuries along the way. His season thus far hasn’t been great, just mustering the two Top 20 finishes, but hopefully he can find his feet on the links again and post a few solid scores.

Steve Webster is another guy that isn’t exactly setting the world alight of late but had a solid end to last year and hopefully can get back on track this week. Webster posted a good early round of 67 last year before 3 mediocre rounds pushed him back for a T-26. He is a two time winner on the European Tour and if he can somehow find his form again the 10/1 on offer for a Top 10 finish looks massive.

Another big price for value seekers could be Peter Lawrie. Lawrie also finished T-26 last year with a moving day 66 on Saturday before a poor final round. Like most Irish golfers he has form on links golf courses. As I mentioned above, its only the second playing of the tournament and actually only the 3^rd year the course has been open so it’s not a betting market to dive into.

My Selections :

Chris Wood 55/1 each way with Coral

Peter Lawrie 80/1 each way with Bet365

Steve Webster 10/1 for a Top 10 finish with SkyBet

It looks Rosey for Justin at Bay Hill!!

Last week Luke Donald won a 4 man play off to win the Transitions championship and become the new World Number 1 after getting dethroned by Rory McIlroy 2 weeks earlier. The Number 1 ranking looks like flipping more often than a pancake on Shrove Tuesday but that can only make each PGA stop that bit more exciting this season.

This week the tour stops at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event is one of the favourites amongst the players. The King Arnold Palmer is a hero, someone the older players in the field watched growing up, someone the younger players heard legendary tales about . So for them the win here would be a defining moment in most of their careers.

Not only is Bay hill a tough golf course but at this time of year it gets blustery too. The tough conditions have kept players from separating themselves from the field. The winning scores the last few years have been single digits under par, even during the years of Tiger's domination, he was typically the only one in double digits under par. This course suits great ball strikers, and someone who fits the bill is Justin Rose.

He's already got a win and a tie for fifth during the Florida Swing. And this week is a home game for Rose, who tied for third a year ago at Bay Hill. In the wake of his victory at the WGC-Cadillac, co-led the field in greens in regulation at the Transitions where he placed T29. Ranks 19th on tour in GIR, eighth in the all-around and 14th in bogey avoidance.

There were 5 crucial points in the above paragraph that helped guide me to Rose as my pick this week, but perhaps the stand out one is his ability to avoid bogeys. If the wind blows then there will be more demand in cutting out mistakes rather than making birdies. Rose is long enough to make the Par 5's his friend this week, and if he can keep his nose clean on the demanding  Par 3's then the 16/1 chalked up by most bookmakers is an attractive price.

Yesterday saw the conclusion of the 2 day exhibition match at the Tavistock Cup. Its not the ideal tournament to get carried away with player's scores as its played in a relaxed environment around a course that all the players are very familar with, however its a good indication of how the players coped with blustery conditions. Robert Allenby played for Team Isleworth who finished 2nd, Allenby shot the joint best score of the day with a 5 under par round in similar conditions in which the players will be faced with this week at Bay Hill.

 Last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Allenby had a tough start with a first round 79, but followed up with 3 rounds under par. In the hope that Robert can put 4 decent rounds together this week, I think the 15/2 on offer from Ladbrokes for a top 10 finish is a cracking betting proposition.

My Selections are:
Justin Rose - 16/1 eachway (William Hill)
Robert Allenby - 15/2 Top Ten Finish (Ladbrokes)

Forget the Bear Trap there's venom in the Snake Pit

 

PGA Tour - Transitions Championship

This week the PGA Tour travels to the Transitions Championship at Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead in Florida. The defending champ this week is Gary Woodland.

Charl Schwartzel is in great form at the moment and has notched up Top 5’s in each of the last two weeks and I fully expect him to be thereabouts come Sunday evening. It might sound silly saying this but I don’t think he’s even hitting the ball as flush as he can. Schwartzels success in the past couple of weeks is mainly down to his short game; he’s comfortably inside the Top 10 for strokes gained by putting and is 1^st in Scrambling. That said, his ball striking is nearly there and this is the week that he might put it altogether and beat a solid field which includes the World Number 2 Luke Donald.

Below: The players had to avoid 'The Bear Trap' at PGA National, now they got to negotiate 'The Snake Pit'

At bigger prices I expect Paul Casey (80/1 Outright) to continue to play his way back from injury and put a few solid rounds together. I don’t think he will win the tournament but the 10/1 offered by ToteSport on a Top 10 finish sounds tasty. Casey had a great finish to last season and probably had big plans for 2012 before he injured himself whilst on holiday. He started this tournament last year with a 64 before finishing in T-37^th and will be hoping to get another few solid rounds under his belt before the Masters.

One of the more comical moments from last week was when Casey’s caddy thought he had just won a share of a car after Casey got a hole in one. Craig Connelly (his caddy) and Casey apparently agreed that they would split the prize if Casey succeeded with his 8 iron at the Par 3, Casey duly delivered, but after comedy scenes from Connelly he was told that there was no prize for a hole in one at that hole!

The European Tour - Open De Andalucía

The European Tour is in Spain this week for the Andalucía Masters. Rafael Cabrera Bello is a strong young player whose career is blossoming this year. He had an impressive win in a strong field in Dubai earlier in the year at the Desert Classic when he beat a deep field which included the new world number 1 Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods, among others.

Rafael was maybe out of his depth a little in the World Golf Championships in Arizona and at Doral these past few weeks but he’s now back in familiar territory this week where he finished T11 last year and with a weaker field than usual at this event I fancy him to give us a run for our money at 40/1. A saver bet would be to back him to finish Top 10 at 9/2.

 

PGA Tour - Transitions Championship

Charl Schwartzel 16/1 each way with Bet365 (5 places 1/4 odds)


Paul Casey 10/1 with ToteSport for a Top 10 finish

The European Tour - Open De Andalucía

Rafael Cabrera Bello 40/1 each way with BetFred (5 places 1/4 odds)

Rafael Cabrera Bello 9/2 Top 10 finish with ToteSport

     

Who will tame the Blue Monster?

The TPC Blue Monster at Doral measures 7,206 yards and plays every inch of it. The signature hole is the Par 4 18^th. It played the most difficult finishing hole on the PGA Tour last year and is sure to provide fireworks on Sunday.

Phil Mickelson won this in 2009 and could sneak under the radar this week. With all the attention seemingly on McIlroy, Woods and Westwood at the moment Phil can quietly start where he left off. Mickelson was in great form in February before deciding to take a family vacation and miss the first World Golf Championship of the season, the Match Play event. I think Phil deciding to take a vacation instead of taking part in the World Match Play tells its own tale; family is number one in his life now, followed by golf. That being said there’s no way he’s lost his competitiveness and will hopefully be in the thick of things come Sunday evening. Mickelson’s final round 64 at Pebble Beach for victory was one of the best rounds of the year and he followed it up with a 2nd place finish at Riviera. With McIlroy and Woods dominating the head of the betting the 14/1 about Mickelson is definitely value.

McIlory is the favourite and deservedly so. He is now the new World Number 1 and his run of form this season has been awesome but surely there will be a little fatigue starting to show shortly and he will have the Masters in the back of his mind. Tiger on the other hand is starting to find his feet back on tour and has now added Arnie’s tourney to his schedule. After last week’s final round 62 and his record in this event it's without doubt his best opportunity of a win so far this season. I read an interesting stat that Tiger fans will enjoy, by now committing to Arnie’s tournament Woods will have played 7 tournaments Pre-Masters, the last time he played that many was in 2005, the last time he won it.

Another player I fancy to go well this week at a bigger price is Matt Kuchar. Kuchar is one of the most solid players on the PGA Tour. He has great tournament form with a 5^th place finish in 2011 and 3^rd place finish in 2010. His season was relatively quiet up until the Match play where he seemed to find his groove again reaching the Quarter Finals. If the big names aren’t at the races this guy has more than enough game to capitalise and at 40/1 with some firms is hopefully an each way steal.

Last week’s blog was saved by GMAC at 4/1 on our Top 10 bet so I’ve decided to try and find another ‘Saver Bet.’ This week I think Rickie Fowler can post another Top 10 at a WGC event. Fowler had T-9, 8^TH and 2^nd place finishes in the WGC events last year and I think with his solid Top 10 finish at the Honda Classic last week he can keep his run going. Fowler still hasn’t got a win on the PGA Tour which must be starting to get frustrating, but he seems to keep his best golf for the big tournaments.

My selections this week:

Phil Mickelson @ 14/1 Outright with BETVICTOR

Matt Kuchar @ 35/1 eachway (SIX Places) with PADDY POWER

Rickie Fowler @ 9/2 to finish in the Top 10 with BETFRED