Fowler set for victory!

Wells Fargo Championship

A decent line up assembles with ten of the Top 30 in the world teeing it up this week, including Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson. Mickelson has had seven Top 10 finishes in ten starts here and McIlroy has a win and a runner up finish (beaten in a play off), so they are rightly at the head of the market. McIlroy of course also holds the course record (62) when shot the lights out of the place on his way to victory in 2010.

Quail Hollow Golf Club is a 7,442 yard Par 72 designed by George Cobb. The tourney tends to throw up a young winner, with 4 of the last 6 winners getting the W before their 24th birthday; with Noh's victory last week, it could be a nice couple of weeks for the babies of the tour.

My only outright pick this week is Rickie Fowler. This will be the third time I've backed him already this year (Doral, Augusta) but thanks to him placing at the Masters I'm still in the green. I haven't had a golf bet since the Masters but was a keen observer last week, following the scores on my phone when I was on my holidays, hoping that Fowler wouldn't have a great week. It was a little selfish on my part, but I was looking some sort of price this week, so needs must. He was a tad short last week and some might even say this week too, but there isn't much missing from his game and I'm hoping that the final ingredient might be, the scene of his only tour win. One of my favourite golfing moments in recent years was his approach shot in that play off to get his win in 2012. The fact McIlroy was in it added to it all I think. Fowler has played a few tourneys in a row, with Top 10s in Texas and Augusta before missing the cut last week and I think it might have been a blessing in disguise having a weekend off and getting some good thoughts in his head for this week.

I'm doing a little saver bet this week in case it all goes wrong with Rickie. Big bad Bobby Karlsson lives just down the road from Quail Hollow and is starting to find some sort of form again after a few years off side due to ongoing injuries and loss of form. He was 11th last time out in Morocco and has posted three Top 15's in his three starts this year on tour. Couple that with the fact that he finished fourth here last year I think a bet on him for Top Continental European is a decent bet. His main opposition will come from Blixt who performed so well at the Masters, though other than that he hasn't had the best of seasons. Others in the market include Peter Hanson (No Top 10s in US this year, 1st appearance), Nicolas Colsaerts (No Top 10s, 4 missed cuts, missed cut last year), Carl Petterson (missed cut last two tourneys, 7 in total this season), Fernandez-Castano (1 Top 25 this year), Martin Kaymer (No Top 20s this calendar year, missed cut last year), Olesen (No Top 20s this year) and Lingmerth (missed his last 3 cuts). With the form of the others taken in to consideration, I make shorter than a 13/2 shot.

My selections:

Rickie Fowler @ 33/1 with Stan James  - 6 places - (2 points each way)

Robert Karlsson @ 13/2 Top Continental European with Betfred (2 point win)

Be Lucky!

Get your wedge of cash on Zach!

The Masters at Augusta National 

Well folks, it's that time of year again, where all the fair weather golfers dust down their clubs in anticipation for the start of the golf season. It's Masters week. As a club golfer it's a week of mixed emotions, as you can't wait for the world's best to try and conquer Amen Corner, but you also know wee 'arry the carpenter, come painter will be butchering your golf course on Saturday with his mates after watching some of the highlights on TV. 

There's two noticeable absentees this week, one has never had a woman underneath him, the other has had a few. Tiger Woods last week joined the Eisenhower tree as casualties before the start of this years Masters and though both are a noticeable miss, come Sunday, both will be somewhat irrelevant in what should be a cracking renewal. For those who don't follow golf too closely, the Eisenhower tree was a massive pine, situated on the left side of the 17th fairway. It was named after the former President, after he campaigned to have it removed because he kept hitting it. He proposed to the Augusta members to have it cut down, but wasn't successful. 

Tiger struggled all year with his back and last week confirmed what a few people thought, he wouldn't be playing Augusta this year. I think I was caught in two minds, I was sad he wouldn't be playing, but happy that he wants to look after himself, so that he can hopefully entertain us for another decade yet. A few mindless keyboard warriors on Twitter were put in their place too, after announcing that he was putting it all on, to hide the fact he couldn't compete with the younger guys anymore. Clueless.

I think the Masters is one event where a lot of the 'tipsters' tend to agree on what sort of criteria a player must fill in order to win a Green Jacket. That said, and this year more than most, there hasn't been much agreement on who the winner might be. Relatively good form this season is desirable but course form is a must. Debutants don't have a great record (remember I said this when reading my picks), with the only debutant winner being Fuzzy Zoeller's all the way back when people were actually being named Fuzzy (1979). This year there are 24 debutants at Augusta and a few will fancy their chances this week. Although it is a massive trend, I think with the way the young guys are coming through with absolutely no fear, zero respect (in a respectful way) for the old guard it's only a matter of time before this trend gets smashed. It could be this year. 

Again for the people who are reading, who may not be up to the speed with the course itself. Augusta is a Par 72 measuring nearly 7,500 yards which historically suits a golfer who can shape a ball right to left. This tends to suit the bombers and the recent winners (save Zach Johnson) were all pretty long with the big stick. I think it's safe to say (someone will disagree with me) that of all the majors it's the one where accuracy off the tee isn't a massive thing, agree? The rough isn't as penal as other courses on the major schedule, but you still need to keep it outa the pines! The stats you really want to look at are Greens in Regulation and Scrambling. If you fancy a player that is high up in the former, forget the latter, if he's low down the rankings in GIR, you better hope he's high up in the scrambling. Augusta's greatest defence are it's greens. 

I usually only back a few golfers when I have a bet, but this week I've gone a bit mad and backed five. A couple of past champs, a couple of young players and a debutant, yes I'm taking on the trend!

First up is Zach Johnson. With what I wrote above, most people (and many have backed him) would of thought I would be going for the other Johnson (Dustin), but I'm quietly confident that one of the shortest hitters to ever win a Masters, can actually win it again. It's a selection that I am 100% sure 

will divide opinion, but here's why I like his chances this week. In what is known as a 'wrap around' 

season (season starts end of 2013) he has had two wins and three other Top 10's, including a T6 in his last start (Valero Texas Open). He has never had a better run of form going into a Masters, and it should be noted that the last two majors of 2013 he had Top 10 finishes, after a Top 10 finish in his last event before them. Clearly carrying form into a major is key for him. I'm sure there'll be a few to pop up and say that when he won in 2007 he didn't break par for the week, but I'd ask, who did? People will also be quick to say that he's too short, but he was 12 under par for the Par 5's, the year he won. His wedge play is phenomenal to watch, with no better example than when he holed out in Tiger's tourney to beat him. Ridiculous shot. When I look at his stats this year I'm filled with more confidence, he's Top 5 in Driving Accuracy, Top 15 in GIR, 2nd in Scoring Average and Top 10 in Birdie Average. With the course getting a soaking, I fancy more players will have to lay up on the Par 5's, if so, he'll get down in fewer shots that the majority of the field. Big showin' please, Zach.

Next up is another previous champ and this guy doesn't play golf like the rest of us. Bubba Watson is as unique as they come, but for what he lacks in common sense at times, he makes up for in imagination. When I said earlier that the players that tend to play well shape the ball right to left, I meant the traditional drawers of the ball, a little inside to out, Bubba can shape it both ways. Two of my favourite shots of his illustrate that point perfectly. The first being a driver off the fairway in Hawaii, where he cut the ball about 50 yards right to left and landed it on a green that nobody hit all day. The second was of course his tournament winning wedge shot where he hooked it on to the green; still hard to believe he pulled it off, even now. The worry (it's not really a worry) is that he pulled out of his last tourney after a monster score, claiming he had allergy problems, though I think he just wasn't at the races and fancied a bit of time at home before a busy schedule. Like Zach, 

Bubba has had his best start to a season coming into the Masters, a win, two runner up finishes and

three other Top 10s tells you the guy is in form (if we put a line through his WD). Unsurprisingly he leads the tour in Driving Distance, but the pleasing stat to read is, he has hit 70% GIR this year on the PGA Tour. If he keeps that up, he could well be toasting baby Jesus on Sunday Night. I really need to stop making the religion jokes when writing about Bubba. Sorry, not sorry. 

Now we get to one of the Top 5 best players in the world, or maybe not. Patrick Reed is a win and PR campaign away from avoiding fighting Manny Pacquiao for the rest of his career (he nearly sells himself better than Floyd Mayweather. Not funny when I have to explain it). We all had a giggle after his interview when he won the WGC Cadillac Championship, but after the dust settled you had to appreciate how impressively he has started his pro career. He's won twice already this year, which is as good as it gets, unless you live with Jimmy Walker, in which case you still sit at the children's table. Reed will definitely test my theory, that you don't have to be straight to win at Augusta as he's seen as many fairways as I have this year. But he can putt and he plays Par 5's pretty well, which is key around this track. Of the debutants, he's my favourite and his confidence (some might say arrogance) will serve him well, in what could be a great opportunity in a wide open event this year.

My fourth pick is Rickie Fowler. The wee man didn't shine for me at Doral when I fancied him there, but another strong showing in a Texas last week has convinced me to give him another go. His season hasn't been near as successful or consistent as my previous picks, with four missed cuts and only the two Top 10s, but he falls into the category of players that have a few appearances under their belt and have showed some sort of course form without any Top 10s to speak of. It should be noted that he took the opportunity to get a private jet down to Augusta last week with McIlroy for some early practise and got a couple of rounds in before playing in Texas. His game is still a working 

progress under Butch, but Butch knows how to get his players a green jacket and with a good putting week he can contend. 

My final selection is Hideki Matsuyama. Some what of an unknown to the fans that don't follow the sport particularly closely. He is only a pup from Japan, but this will be his third appearance at Augusta and with the experience he has built he can contend. He won the low amateur in 2011 and had another go the following year, but blew out in the last round. He is now a pro and has won four events in Japan putting himself at the top of the list of possible Asian winners of the major championships, in the not so distant future. The reason I have selected him is more for his major record than his wins in the last year, which sounds strange considering he's only teed it up three times; but he's had two Top 10's and a Top 20 finish. His ball striking is as good as you'll see, he absolutely stripes it for a wee guy. His driving distance is nicely complimented by a decent iron game, which is a nice combo for Augusta. 

If you have had a read and think you'd like to listen to some professional opinions, you can tune into Sky Channel 861 on Tuesday at 8pm and listen to Ben (@bencoleygolf) and Sam (@golfpunters) who you may (should) follow on Twitter.

Good luck with your selections this week. My staking plan is below:

Zach Johnson - 33/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 2 pts each way

Bubba Watson - 28/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way

Patrick Reed - 66/1 with Ladbrokes 5 places - 1 pt each way

Rickie Fowler - 66/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way

Hideki Matsuyama - 80/1 with Paddy Power 6 places - 1 pt each way

Total stake - 12 pts

Be lucky! 

Fuyrk is the Trump card

So I didn't have a bet last week at the Honda Classic, and I’m glad I didn’t. I would have been on McIlroy and would have gone to work even more depressed than usual on Monday. It's hard to believe he hasn't won a couple of stroke play events this year, but he's got to be pleased with the way this season has started. The problem is, we all assume when he gets the lead, he'll kick for home and no one will catch him; like he's done a few times in the past. But half way from home last week he was cantering all over the top of the chasing pack only to find wanting down the stretch. To be honest, I thought he was hard done by a little with the plugged lie in the bunker on Sunday (yes he shouldn't of hit it there blah blah blah) and from the coverage I saw he didn't really hole his fair share of putts either.

I actually didn't see the end of golf on Sunday and only got to see McIlroy’s 5 wood into 18 on Monday night. All I'm saying is; Tiger would of holed that, fist pumped across the green, high five'd Feherty and ploughed his way through every second girl on his way to Doral. Rory didn't, but that ruthlessness will come in spades soon. Before I finish my rant on last week I need to give a shout out to Ben Coley of Bettingzone fame (@BenColeyGolf) who tipped up Russell Henley at 300/1 in his article. That's how you get some points on the board folks! Well done, Ben.

On to this week and with all the new changes at Doral it's expected course form won't be a big a factor as usual. Well that's what I'm telling myself anyway so I don't have to look through past results. Lazy. To be honest I've two picks and I was backing one regardless of course form and the other because the price jumped out at me when I went onto Oddschecker. The course itself has been changed massively with seemingly the only untouched hole being the infamous 18th. New bunkers, sand capped fairways (for drainage) and new trees. From what I've read the course itself is more wide open, but fairway bunkers have been added (e.g. landing area on 1st fairway) and the greens have been made bigger with more thought required with approaches; wrong tiers and you're scrambling for your par. The green at the Par 3 15th has been tripled in size and is now surrounded by water on three sides.

My first pick is Jim Furyk. I can never seem to get this fella right and he's cost me a few times, but his price this week is what attracts me. He's only teed it up a few times this season but has bettered his finish with every event and I think is on the upward curve going into an event where he has had success at in the past. I know a few people think that Jim's nerves have gone a little and he can't finish events off, but I'm not so sure. He did shoot a 59 last year! He knows how to plot himself around a golf course and although it's a lot more open this year his approaches to the flags is what will serve him well this week on these much bigger greens. He had Top 3 finishes here a few years ago ('08, '09) and it will be interesting to look back at the result on Sunday and see how the players with the previous course form faired.

My second pick this week is Rickie Fowler. I can't help but like the kid, I know he looks a bit like the wee fella out of High School Musical (I've heard, I've never seen it) and his outfits make Poulter's look bland, but he has talent. The Yanks were screaming and shouting about him when he was younger, playing in Walker Cups etc but he's never really fulfilled his potential on the pro ranks, yet. He took a while to get his first win, and when he won the Wells Fargo in a play off (which included McIlroy) I thought that would be the start. But he went off the boil and other than a fight back in the Sunday singles at the Ryder Cup I don't remember him doing much else. He's now with Butch Harmon and all the vibes appear to be good; he seems to be attacking the course again. A third place finish in the WGC Match Play was the first real sign that he had found his form again and after watching that I fancied he could go well at a course like this. I like his iron play and with similar approaches to the ones faced at Dove Mountain, I think this could be the event that he can throw his hat into the Ryder Cup ring.

My Selections:

Rickie Fowler each way at 66/1 with WillHill (1 pt each way- 5 places)

Jim Furyk each way at 60/1 with Paddy Power (1 pt each way – 5 places

Be Lucky!

It's all about confidence!

WGC Matchplay @ Dove Mountain

Last week was a no show for my picks with Harris English the best placed finish in T-10th without ever contending or giving me much of sweat. I was hopeful of a Bill Haas charge on Sunday but he went backwards and Kevin Na, well wee Kev missed the cut; bless him. The winner in the end was Bubba Watson, who shot 14 under par over the weekend (bogey free) to win by two shots. I think every man and his dog was waiting for a Bubba implosion on Sunday, but it didn't come. Much to the disappointment of my Snapchat friends.

This week we are off to Dove Mountain for the Matchplay. There's a few absentees this week with Tiger, Rory and Scotty all deciding they don't need a share of the massive purse up for grabs. So although it should be the best 64 players in the world, it's not. The course itself is pretty long, gives plenty of room from the tee and has pretty big greens. Greens in a Regulation stats aren't massive on my criteria this week as hitting the greens won't necessarily give you the upper hand against your opponent. If you end up on the wrong tier you'd *probably rather you were chipping (*probably a slight exaggeration on my part). As a golfer myself, when I play Matchplay I think to myself even when I'm playing bad, just grind, you're playing the man not the course. The pro ranks are no different. Hence why some tipsters don't like tipping in match play because your pick can't play his way into the tournament. Bubba Watson made the cut on the number last week (one under) and shot 64, 64 over the weekend to get the win. You could go round in five under in your opening match, your opponent shoots six under, wins by a cosy half length down the 18th and your home in time to watch the soccaaaaar *said in my best American accent*. Just as easy you could play like a hacker and limp through to the next round where you suddenly find something with your game. So it's not a lottery to pick the winner as some suggest, but you'll need luck along the way. At the end of the day the last eight finalists have been Ryder Cup-ers!



So two picks this week. First up, Sergio Garcia. Before anyone comments, I'm not betting with my heart here. Two wins (granted one in a reduced field) in his last three events makes him a form horse. Anybody who has followed Sergio's career knows the mans issues! One day, flawed genius, another day clinically insane. Both days tend to be based round how is confidence levels are. With Sergio, I
like to strike when the iron's hot. Course form is ok, a semi finalist here in 2010 but I don't think I'm
going to try and convince myself that Sergio has been a great match player. His overall record is a

winning one, nothing spectacular but it's got to be said he's never came into this tournament in this sort of form before and with the confidence that only victories can give you. Also in the past his
putting was a massive problem and in match play if you can't hole five footers you're not going to win. His stroke is massively improved and I'm backing him to put on a show this week in what is a Ryder Cup year. That last point should not be understated this week. This is the first real chance for players to put their hat in the ring for the Ryder Cup; McGinley and Watson will be keeping a close eye. Looking at Sergio bracket, it's not easy, none of them are. His first (hopefully) real challenge will probably come from Poults. Nobody will want to play Poulter, he's an out an out match player, a real grinder, and you'll have to beat him, it won't be handed to you. Rors is obviously in his bracket too, and as much as I think he's going to have a massive year I think that if Sergio can have some forward momentum and confidence going into that match, he definitely has the beating off him in a match which will have a ridiculous amount of natural talent on display.

Next up is more of an obvious match play pick (I think) but slightly less favourable on current form coming into the tourney. Graeme McDowell, actually that sounds a little formal. GMAC is a sort of player I want in my team if I picking a Ryder Cup team. He grinds like nobody's business and has the game to compete with anyone on his day. Of course it's easy to think back to Celtic Manor and draw that conclusion but he's all business on the course and his attitude is the main reason why I like siding with him in match play.  His overall match play record is great, he's had twice as many wins (24-10) as he's had losses. Most of his wins have come outside of the WGC, i.e Seve Trophy and Volvo World Matchplay, but it all supports the notion that conditions are best suited when scrambling and grinding are required; he is a US Open champ after all. Some (most) people will probably tell me that I probably picked the two hardest brackets to decipher. Without doubt GMAC's is the toughest. He has Mahan, Kaymer, DJ and an inform Bubba to contend with. But bar Mahan, you have an out of form Kaymer, DJ doesn't fair well round here (but 2-0 Ryder Cup singles) and Bubba is probably still *hungover (crying his eyes out whilst praising baby Jesus) from last week. I can't talk myself out of it, so Gmac is my second and final outright pick.

I usually try and pick a winner from each bracket so I can do a wee Yankee or Lucky 15. So, of the other brackets I fancy Stricker to putt everyone's lights out in his bracket and Ryan Moore to continue a solid start to his season by beating the defending champ and winning his bracket. Before I go, if you are going to do bets in each round, Paddy Power's special this week is money back if your selection loses their match after leading through 12 holes; so keep that in mind.

My Selections:

Sergio Garcia @ 25/1 with Skybet, among others (1 pt each way)
Graeme McDowell @ 35/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way)

For fun

Sergio Garcia 6/1 (Hogan bracket)
Graeme McDowell 9/1 (Snead bracket)
Ryan Moore 10/1 (Player bracket)
Steve Stricker 11/1 (Jones bracket)

£1 lucky 15

Be lucky! 

Bill Haas previous at Riviera

Northern Trust Open at Riviera

Last week Jimmy Walker joined an elusive club when he won for the third time this season on the PGA Tour. Only Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and David Duval have won three times in a similar stretch (eight tournaments). Nice club to be in! Walker will be well fancied again this week, as he has said this is one of his favourite courses. But I'll let him be this week.

Riviera is a very traditional ball strikers golf course with a real classic feel to it. The tenth hole is one of my favourites on tour and it will sure to be a telling factor again this week. Some decent form going into this week seems to be a common trend along with previous form at the course. My picks have a mixture of both.

First up this week is Bill Haas. Haas is a previous winner and has other has other decent course form too. He was leading going into the final round last year before a closing 73 left him in a tie for third. Haas has had a quiet enough start to the season, making cuts without really challenging over the weekend. His best finish in recent weeks was a T-6 in the Humana Challenge. He's won each year since his 2011 Tour Championship / Fed Ex Cup victories and surely he will start to challenge regularly in majors soon enough. His strong iron play will be key this week and he'll surely give his backers a sweat come Sunday.

My second pick has already had a victory this season. Harris English got over the line for his maiden win at the St Jude Classic last year and has already followed up this season at the Mayakoba. He's had a decent start to the calendar year with a fourth place in Hawaii and another Top 10 in his last start, in Phoenix. Like Haas, he's a strong iron player and is in the Top 10 in Greens in Regulation this season. Unlike Haas, he doesn't have any course form to speak of, made the cut last year but finished in the middle of the pack. But he's a different player now with two victories to his name.

I fancy a Top 10 bet to cover my stakes in case it goes all a little Pete Tong this week. Looking through my previous posts I actually did the same bet in 2012. Kevin Na is definitely one of the more unpredictable players on the PGA Tour and has run up some silly numbers in his time. But on form he can rack up some Top 10s - 38 in his PGA Tour career, compared to his one victory tells you he's not the greatest in contention. But a Top 10 is all I ask of him this week! He was in the Top 5 at Pebble Beach last week and has previous course form when third in 2011 at Riviera. That does me!

My Selections:
Bill Haas @ 28/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) (1 pt each way)
Harris English @ 33/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) (1 pt each way)
Kevin Na 'Top 10 finish' @ 13/2 with Stan James (1 pt win) 

Stenson to start where he left off

Dubai Desert Classic 

It's the final part of the desert swing and Tiger has flew over to join the party. Tiger is a regular to Dubai, probably for two reasons, his appearance fee and his good mate Mark O'Meara adding it to his schedule around the turn of the century. I see O'Meara did an interview for the European Tour website, though not sure what we learnt from it - "you have to putt well to win any tournament", "the European Tour has proven itself to be one of the best tours in the world" and “Driving the ball will be important, keeping the ball in the short grass, and putting well. You have to putt well to win any tournament, and this will certainly not be an exception this week, making the putts." - Thanks Mark. Great insight. 

Tiger was too bad to be true last week and you'd probably want to give him another go in the hope he has shook off some of that rust. At 6/1 he's a decent price but I'm happy to leave him out this week after watching Torrey Pines beat the crap out of him last Saturday. 

McIlroy is the favourite this week at a skinny 3/1. He's definitely got his mojo back but I think I'll let him win again before I touch him at a price like that. On to who I do like this week...

Big bad Henrik Stenson is my weapon of choice this week. After the finish to last season I was of the opinion he would struggle to replicate it at the early part of this season but I think the fact that we are in Dubai I'm hoping he'll get some positive thoughts. I could say a course like this suits Stenson's eye but after last season you'd have to say most courses do when he's on form. I do like siding with Stenson when driving is key, as he absolutely nukes that three wood of his and it usually finds the short stuff. I really don't think that McIlroy is three times more likely to win this week than Henrik. 

Next up is the only Stevie G that matters. Stephen Gallacher is the defending champ this week and I think he can go close again. He likes this part of the world and has already notched up a Top 10 finish in Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago. He shot a couple of low numbers here last year with a 62 and 63 to win by a comfortable enough three shots in the end. Most people will point to the trend between results in this part of the world and Portugal to explain the winners in the last few years and Gallacher is one of those examples. He also finished in a tie for second here in 2012 and I'm happy enough to back him at the prices to hopefully place again. 

Off the beaten track a little, but hey, it's my blog. I suppose I better formally retract my Coetzee comment which I posted on Twitter after another lacklustre finish in Abu Dhabi. The guy just frustrates the life out of me. I followed him for a few holes at Royal St George's the year Clarkey won and I thought this kid had talent. But three years down the line he still hasn't picked up a tour win and he's had his chances. The way he just crumbled from the middle of the 18th fairway was worrying but he had another solid week last week and I'm sure he will many times, but I think he might need to have his first one handed to him before he will kick on. Anyways, let's leave it there.

My Selections:

Henrik Stenson to win @ 11/1 with BetFred (2 point win)

Stephen Gallacher each way @ 45/1 with Bet365 (1 point each way) 

Be lucky! 

El Niño won't have a hangover in Thailand

Thailand Golf Championship

Well my first blog of the 2014 season didn't have much success. I said it on Twitter and I'll say it again, I will never back Jbe Kruger again, he's like a Kamikaze pilot at times. Brutal viewing. Last week I didn't do a blog as I didn't think there was much point with the small fields and I thought the market favs would probably win. I did two bets in the end - the first being a trixie on Migual Angel Jimenez (Hong Kong Open), Henrik Stenson (Nedbank Challenge) and Tiger Woods (World Challenge). The second was a double on Sergio Garcia (Nedbank) and Graeme McDowell (World Challenge. To say I was frustrated with Tiger ruining any chance of a return is an understatement. I think he was 1.03 on Betfair when holding a four shot lead with eight holes to play. Add the fact that three of the holes left were Par 5's and his closest challenger is one of the shortest hitters on tour (granted one of the best wedge players) I think I am entitled to have a moan. With that said, you got to tip your hat to Zach Johnson, he played well all day and his wedge from the drop zone was sublime. Tiger hit two great bunker shots on 18, but then missed a putt that the old Tiger simply didn't miss. It was interesting to hear a view of his comments after, where he said he was scared of pushing it; the old Tiger would never of let a negative thought like that enter his mind.

Zach Johnson's wedge last week

On a brighter note I really enjoyed watching Sergio's charge on Sunday at the Nedbank. Obviously I'm very biased when it comes to Sergio as I'm blinded a little by the talent he has and usually choose to ignore his poor attitude at times. But it was vintage Sergio last week in South Africa and he only really hit one bad shot all day Sunday (tee shot at 16). I'm keeping it simple this week and sticking with him for the Thailand Open.

As most people know Sergio is a guy who plays well when filled with confidence, so he tends to play well in consecutive tournaments. When he had his last win on the PGA Tour (2012 Wydham Champ) he was third the following week and his last wins in Europe came when he won back to back in Spain at the end of the 2011 season. He was 4th in this last year, though to put that into context he was turning at Becher's Brook when Charl was getting hosed down. Sergio had a decent run of form from the Fed-Ex through the HSBC Champions event and then last week when he really did look back to his old self.

Of the others playing this week I would think the winner will come from one of the market principles. As I mentioned last week I backed Stenson and for the most part he didn't seem to find that other gear that he had in the run of the 2013 season. The fella is bound to be itching to spend all those dollars and euros and I think he'll have a solid finish again this week without really challenging. Schwartzel obviously won this at a hack cantor last year and he's got an obvious chance but he doesn't seem to have his 'A' game with him at the moment and if I am to back someone at 5/1 I want to be sure he's got everything but the kitchen sink with him. Of the Asian players I suppose Aphibarnrat and Messawat are the two I'd be most interested in but I really fancy Sergio to get the W this week and I'm just sticking with him.

My selection:

Sergio Garcia to win 7/1 2 pts (General)

Be lucky!