Is Tiger 'Bomb Proof' at Firestone this week?

WGC Bridgestone at Firestone Country Club

This week we have the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone Country Club. It’s one of the World Golf Championships and has no cut, which means for the slow starters you’re never too far back, unless you’re too far back! *giggles*.

 It’s a tournament that Tiger Woods used to win when he felt like it (winner in ’99, ’00, ’01, ’05, ’06, ’07, 09). However he has put in a poor showing the last couple of years (T-78 in ’10, T-37 last year). Although it’s fair to say Tiger’s game wasn’t in the same shape as it has been this year. His three wins this year have all came in familiar territory to him, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village and Congressional, multiple winner at each course. So it’s quite clear he plays the same courses well. Some people might say 5/1 is short, roll back a few years and you would have been lucky to get 5/2 at Firestone. If you aren’t convinced that Tiger is value at 5s and would rather take him on you should probably strike your bet with Paddy Power on their phone app. If Tiger Woods wins Paddy Power will give all losing punters a free bet to the value of their stake for the PGA Championship for next week. If you fancy this and don’t have a Paddy Power account you can click the banner on the right side of my page and set up an account and get up to a £50 free bet.

Tiger Wood's smiling at a Presser (pretty sure I should of paid for this pic)

On the basis that I think Tiger will get the win on Sunday I am going to do my each way alternatives in the ‘Without Tiger’ market. Paddy Power and Sky Bet are doing markets on this and it gives you a strong possibility of getting paid out on two winners on Sunday. Like most golf fans that enjoy a punt, after the Open I decided Adam Scott was the logical bet for the Bridgestone. Scott is the defending champ here, he hit the ball beautifully for 68 holes at the Open and he looked nailed on for his first major championship entering the back nine at Lytham, but it all went wrong for him. Truth be told I was shouting for Ernie in the final few holes but it wasn’t enjoyable to watch Scott throw it away (finished with four straight bogeys). I was surprised to see people comparing his back nine to McIlroy’s at the Masters (2011), it wasn’t! McIlroy had a meltdown; Scott together with Stevie Williams made poor decisions at bad times. To be honest I think Williams should have taken some criticism (especially for the tee shot on 18) but he got off scot-free (I refuse to apologise for that glorious pun). Anyways, although I think he has a great chance I won’t be backing him at a best price 18/1. I wanted bigger, I expected bigger. If he was 25/1 he’d probably be my main pick but it’s funny how your mind works when looking at prices, few points too short, and I’m out.

From a man who should of won his first major this season to a man who did. My first each way alternative to Tiger is Bubba Watson. The man is a bit of a legend in my eyes, plays golf his own way, doesn’t take lessons (where would you even start?) and for the most part (unless in France) has a carefree attitude on the course. I think it was to be expected that his performances after the Masters would be a little subdued. Not only did he win his first major (in a play off) but just before that he and his wife Angie adopted a baby (Caleb). So it’s fair to say he’s had quite a year! With Firestone measuring 7,400 yards it should suit a ‘big hitter’, Tiger was the ‘big hitter’ for the majority of his wins here. Bubba’s ranks 1^st in Driving Distance’ and not surprisingly considering he wedges it to most Par 4’s is 1^st in Greens in Regulation this year. Bubba has played here twice and notched up a couple of solid Top 25s but it should be noted he lead after a 64 in his opening round in 2010. Other than his Masters win he has had two other second place finishes this season, one was at the Cadillac Championship, so he picks the big money tourneys to play well! Hopefully he will win a lot more dollaaaa come Sunday, he needs it, it’s expensive raising a child, well so the 'owl doll' (*in a Northern Ireland accent*) told me anyway!

The caricature that Bubba uses as his Twitter avatar

I’m sticking to the big hitters with my second and final alternative to Mr Woods. Dustin Johnson was my highest placed pick at the Open Championship, unfortunately for him the rest of my picks were crap and his 9^th place finish won the honours. I’m adamant DJ is going to pick up another win this year (fingers crossed for Kiawah Island next week) and I am determined to have my money decorating the mahogany when he does. At Firestone his low round, like Bubba’s, came in 2010, in the shape of a 65 on the Saturday. His three appearances have been solid with a couple of Top 25s, but it is a course that should suit and I think his game is ticking along nicely. The thing with DJ is getting a couple of aspects of his game working well at the same time, if it comes together he’ll be bang there and if Tiger falters he can pick up a big prize before he heads off to Kiawah Island. 

Dustin Johnson

I am sure most of you who read my blog know by now; I don’t claim to be a ‘tipster’. I do a write up on the golfers who I am backing myself; if you read my blog and think there’s a little truth to what I am saying by all means have a punt. I say this, as this week due to my betting in the ‘W/O Tiger’ market I am going to write up my staking plan beside my bets. It’s straightforward and most of you will say it’s a pretty obvious one but I thought I’d do it anyway.

My Selections are:

Tiger Woods @ 5/1 with Will Hill (3 pt win)

Bubba Watson @ 33/1 with Bet Victor (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Bubba Watson @ 25/1 ‘W/O Tiger’ with Sky Bet (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Dustin Johnson @ 35/1 with Stan James (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Dustin Johnson @ 25/1 ‘W/O Tiger’ with Paddy Power (0.5 pt ew)(5 places)

Will it be a 16th different Major Champ in a row come Sunday?

2012 Open Championship at Royal Lytham and St Anne’s

This week Royal Lytham and St Anne’s’ hosts the 141^st Open Championship. The famous championship has been played here ten times previously and there are some illustrious winners; Seve won twice (’79, ’88), Player won in ’74 and Bobby Jones won in 1926. The most recent victor was David Duval in 2001 when he joined a long list of players to win a major and then disappear (last spotted in a Burger King in April 2004), I joke! The course has been lengthened since then with the Par 70 course now measuring 7.118 yards.

The Claret Jug at Royal Lytham and St Anne's

I’m no Michael Fish but I don’t think the weather is going to be as bad as first forecast. However if the weather is bad I am sure one fella that will feel at home is British Amateur Champion Alan Dunbar. Alan skipped the North of Ireland Championship last week to prepare for his first appearance at a major championship. I am sure he will get plenty of advice from big Darren and I hope he goes out and enjoys himself; he’s drawn in a nice group with Adam Scott and Matt (Kuuuuuuccchh) Kuchar.

When looking through the list of previous Open Champions there is a notable trend, 10 of the last 15 champions had already picked up at least one tour victory that season before teeing it up in their respective Open wins. The five that didn’t were – Stewart Cink (2009), Padraig Harrington (2008), Ben Curtis (2003) and David Duval in (2001).

It’s harder than ever to pick the winner of a major with 15 different winners of the last 15 majors, the strength in depth of both the PGA Tour and European Tours is phenomenal. With Tiger Woods not dominating the majors anymore (hasn’t won any since US Open ’08) the bookies have finally started to give the punters some sort of price on him, he’s a general 9/1 this week (10s with Ladbrokes). With regards Tigers chances this week I think the weather over the last few weeks will hinder his game more than the weather in the next few days. Confused? Well going by reports and Tiger’s own comments the course is wet, the rough is very lush and it will penalise poor accuracy from the tee. Although I think Tiger’s driving has improved no end this year I wouldn’t of thought twice about putting my hard earned cash (I’m a Civil Servant) *waits for the laughing to stop* on a Tiger win if the course was firm and bouncy. No one can forget how he won at Hoylake, stinger shots from the tee with the 3 wood, plenty of crushed iron shots for position, it was just phenomenal course management. But this week with the soft course he can’t afford to lose out on distance off the tee, which means the driver will be on display and if he doesn’t have control of it I don’t think he’ll be winning his 15^th major.

I usually try and keep my picks to two or three on my blog each week, but as it’s a major and I don’t have any ante-post bets I have had five goes to try and come out with the winner come Sunday. I have stuck with the trend that I think the winner on Sunday will have lifted silverware at some stage already this season.

My first pick this week is Dustin Johnson. Big DJ has appeared a few times this year on my blog and of course returned a 22/1 winner for me when winning the St Jude Classic. It has been an injury-plagued season for Johnson with a back injury that kept him out of action for nearly three months. Before his injury in March he had already racked up three Top 10’s so with limited starts he’s had quite a decent season thus far and surely he’ll add a major to his wins sooner rather than later. He finished T-2 last year at Royal St Georges’s, his shank on the 14^th (I think) was costly, big Darren Clarke went on to get the W. DJ’s driving accuracy stat isn’t exactly spectacular (worse than Tiger’s) but he only hit 50% of the fairways last year and nearly got it done. The thing to remember when looking at stats is that whether you miss the fairway by 2 yards or 22 yards it still only goes down as a one missed fairway! I think at the prices Dustin Johnson is good value and offers a real each way opportunity.

Big bad Dustin Johnson

My second selection this week is Ben Curtis. He was on the same list as David Duval, Todd Hamilton, Shaun Micheel et al after his major win at Royal St George’s in 2003, he disappeared. He re-surfaced in 2006 and won a couple of tourneys on the PGA Tour (Booz Allen Classic, ’84 Lumber Classic), but it was back to the doldrums after that. However he’s back with a bang this year. He won the Valero Texas Open and has backed it up with two other Top 5 finishes, which included a T-2 at the Players Championship. His stats support his renaissance; he’s 3^rd in Driving Accuracy, 6^th in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 3^rd in Strokes gained through Putting. He doesn’t hit the ball far (averages just 278 yards from the tee) but it’s easier to play from the fairways than it is from the car park, well unless your name is Seve!

Ben Curtis kissing the Claret Jug in 2003

My third selection is Rickie Fowler. Fowler has been the one fella that I was always going to back. However unlike others I didn’t get on ante-post but still think there’s value there. Fowler finally got his maiden title at the Wells Fargo this year (in a play off) and to say it was overdue was an understatement. It was clear he just needed to get the monkey off his back; he backed that win up with a T-2^nd the very next week at Sawgrass (The Players). I think Fowler will be a popular choice with the punters this week and for those who remember his 68 on the Saturday last year (finished 5^th) in pretty nasty conditions they will be confident if the poor weather does arrive he will be able to cope a lot better than the Americans usually do. The only negative I have with Fowler is his putting but the positives out way that.

Rickie Fowler in his Sunday orange

My fourth selection is Rafael Cabrera-Bello. RCB like the others has already picked up a victory this year, his came at the Dubai Desert Classic in February where he beat a strong field, which included Tiger Woods. Since then he has picked up a few Top 3 finishes, the latest being a Runner up finish at Royal Portrush (Irish Open). Like Fowler ball striking is his strength and links golf courses are where he can illustrate that best. He drives the ball well and hits a load of GIR; he averages nearly 75% this year on the European Tour. He had a poor Sunday at the Scottish Open last week (shot 78) so let’s hope he got rid of most of his poor shots then!

Rafael Cabrera-Bello

My fifth and final selection is another past champion, Paul Lawrie. Since winning the Open at Carnoustie in ’99 he doesn’t have a great Open record, his best finish was actually here in 2001 when 42^nd. He won the Qatar Masters in February and has also had five other Top 10 finishes this year. Lawrie chose not to play in the US Open at Olympic Club to stay in Europe and concentrate on Ryder Cup qualification. Lawrie has all the tools to win another Open Championship and show that his first wasn’t a fluke (Van de Velde went deep burn diving). The one negative I have with Lawrie these days is that he seems to get very frustrated very easily and often drops the head when things aren’t going right, he displayed this by storming off after his defeat at the Volvo and refusing interviews, he subsequently apologised. I don’t suspect that everyone believes in omens but if you do…. Lawrie picked up a victory in the ’99 season prior to the Open; it came in the Qatar Masters.

Paul Lawrie with the Claret Jug in 1999

My selections are:

Dustin Johnson 50/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Ben Curtis 100/1 each way with BetVictor (6 places)

Rickie Fowler 40/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Rafael Cabrera-Bello 125/1 each way with Paddy Power (7 places)

Paul Lawrie 70/1 each way with Stan James (7 places)

The Italian Job in Scotland and history making Stateside

Well I’m back from my little trip back home to Ireland and all in all it was a great trip. I nipped to Royal Troon for the British Amateur, went to Carton House for a two day golf trip with the lads and of course was at the Irish Open at Royal Portrush. The negative of the trip was it lashed it down pretty much the whole time I was there. My local club (Ballycastle Golf Club) got closed for a day because it was flooded (see pic below). Fast forawrd one week and in London the rain still hasn’t stopped, it’s nearly Arc building time! For anyone who follows amateur golf the North Of Ireland Championship started this week at Portrush, two stroke play rounds to qualify for the match play stage, one at Royal Portrush and the other at GMAC’s home club Rathmore. My mate (Jango) is the only Ballycastle man playing this week and shot he 73, 74 and is currently sweating on qualification as I write this. The low round today (63) and new course record at Royal Portrush came from Dermot McElroy, he played in the Irish Open, so got plenty of practise! I'd say keep an eye out for him in the future, he’s going to be top notch!

The 1st Green at Ballycastle Golf Club

The Scottish Open @ Castle Stewart

Anyways, less of my jibber jabber *finishes Snickers* on to the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart. If you roll back to this time last year we had similar weather and subsequently the Scottish Open was reduced to 54 holes and was won by Luuuuuuke Donald. As I am sure you know, 54 holes is all the course form we have for the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart as that was the tournaments first appearance there after its long affiliation with Loch Lommand finished in 2010. But I’m still using last year’s results to influence my judgement this week. I have two selections and they have a similarity, neither have actually won on the European Tour yet *waits for silence* but both placed 3^rd here last year and both have a little form on the links, so here goes…

First up is Lorenzo Gagli. I followed this guy around Royal Portrush for a little and two things became very clear, one he drives the ball in the rough a lot (58% Driving Accuracy) and two, he tends to get back out of it ok! Unfortunately after a nice start in the Irish Open he shot a 76 on the Saturday, however most of the poor scores came on Saturday afternoon so maybe give him a bye ball for that. He was 8^th in the Irish Open in ’11 and T-3^rd here (Castle Stuart) last year, so he seems to like the cold and the wet! On a serious note he seems to like links golf and although he hasn’t had any Top 10’s this year (six last year), I think he’s worth some each-way money at 125/1.

Lorenzo Gagli

My second selection is George Coetzee. He was bang there last week in France but had a poor round (76) on Sunday and finished down the field. He has had a few chances to get his first win, but hasn’t got over the line yet. Coetzee had a solid start to the year with four Top 10s before May (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Korea & China) but hasn’t picked one up since; his highlight of late was probably his closing 66 at Wentworth in the European Tour’s flagship event. But he’s another guy that plays well on Links courses, T-3^rd here last year and was also 3^rd in the Alfred Dunhill Links as well. Some people might say (queue the tweet) that 50/1 is a poor price considering three time winner Brandon Grace is the same price but I like Coetzee’s chances this week so a 50/1 winner will have to do *giggles*. South Africans have a 25% strike rate in the Scottish Open since 2000 so that’s a good omen!

George Coetzee

My Selections:

Lorenzo Gagli 125/1 each way with SportingBet

George Coetzee 50/1 each way with Bet365

John Deere Classic @ TPC Deere Run

Welcome to The Steve Stricker Show! It’s been talked about all week that Steve Stricker is going for four wins in a row at TPC Deere Run and is bidding to join the elite to win the same tourney four times in succession. Young Tom Morris, Hagen, Sarazen and Tiger (twice) have all done it and if Stricker wins the birdie fest this week he can pull a seat up to the table.

To be honest it’s pretty tough not to pick the tourney fav, when you see that Donald is a similar price in Scotland you can’t help but feel the bookies are giving the punters a chance with Stricker. Granted he hasn’t been setting the world alight since his win in Hawaii but if this were anyone else inside the Top 5 in the world you’d be looking at 4/1 tops! He came into this tourney off the back of the US Open the past three years but played the Greenbrier (T-22) last week, if he finds his putting boots (72^nd in Strokes gained through Putting) we might all look a little naïve for not filling our boots with the 8s on offer yesterday!

Steve Stricker (last year at TPC Deere Run)

I think like last year it’s going to take a low number to get the W this week, it should be a birdie blitz, which points me to Carl Pettersson. Bet everyone thought I was going to say Brendan de Jong! Haha. Pettersson is having a hugely inconsistent season, which as resulted in a win, two runner-ups finishes and six missed cuts. But this is a guy that can go low, shoots 65 and 66s for fun when he gets that big broom handle putter working well. It’s plain to see when looking at his stats that accuracy is his problem but when he gets the ball on the green he picks up shots on the field (12^th in Strokes gained through Putting). Let’s hope he drives it straight (like frozen rope, a JF special) and gives himself plenty of look ins, if he does it could be win number two of the season at tasty odds!

Carl Pettersson (at The Heritage)

My Selections:

Steve Stricker @ 7/1 Outright (General)

Carl Pettersson @ 40/1 each way (General)

Northern Ireland the Major Home of Golf!

2012 Irish Open at Royal Portrush

I am currently on my holidays back home in Ireland but have found the time to write a quick blog post on my thoughts for the Irish Open at Royal Portrush. Before I start on the golf this week I would just like to mention  the British Amatuer win for Alan Dunbar last weekend at Royal Troon. Congratulations! I was fortunate enough to nip over and watch the 36 hole final on Saturday and the standard of golf on display in testing conditions was unbelievable from both players. I don't think I have ever seen an exhibition of putting like I seen from Dunbar, he holed so many putts to keep himself in it when his long game deserted him. It's another trophy to add to the list for Northern Ireland golf and don't count out a strong showing from him this week in his home town. A few of the lads and I got a picture with the champ on the 18th green with the trophy and when I get my hands on the the photo I will upload it for you all to have a look at (massive trophy!).


I am lucky enough to have first hand knowledge of the course this week as I was a member there for two years when at university. The main thing that the players will have to contend with is the strong breeze which is a permanent feature at Royal Portrush. It doesn't matter how good a day it seems to be there's never any let up with the wind. The fairways are tight and precision driving is key to set up birdie chances, as the greens will be tough to hold from the wispey rough. When I played there (and fought every week to break 80) I used to wonder what sort of scores the tour pros could post, this week I will find out! McIlroy shot 61 a few years ago in the qualifying for the match play stage of the North of Ireland Championship. At the time I was baffled at how he managed to post that number, 28 shots on the back nine is mental! That's really when Irish golf took notice of the Holywood man, although he didn't win 'The North' that year he was the name that everyone remembered.

The 5th hole at Royal Portrush 

The first selection this week is Brandon Grace. Already a three time winner this year Grace ticks a lot of boxes this week at Portrush. The South African has already had a couple of wins on links courses and the course set up should really suit his eye. The Par 5's will be key this week as they are scorable if you manage them well and he has shown in the past he can plot his way round a links golf course. He has found himself in a crowd pulling group of Rory McIlroy and Keegan Bradley and I fancy him to steal a little piece of the local hero's thunder and set himself up for a weekend tilt at the title.

Brandon Grace

My second selection for the Irish Open is Padraig Harrington. Harrington is in great form but has seemingly struggled to finish off tournements in the last couple of years. A past winner of the tourney this might be the week he finally puts four rounds together. To do that he will have to avoid any silly mistakes which he seems to constantly make. Athough I can't find the quote I remember reading somewhere a few years ago that Harrigton said the 12th hole at Royal Portrush was his favourite hole in golf. My home club (Ballycastle GC) are marshalling that hole this week and I suspect they will see some scrambling from the players, the green is elevated and narrow, so if the iron shot isn't precise they could be playing their third from a pot bunker.


My third and final selection this week is another local hero in the shape of Graeme McDowell AKA GMAC *sings..like a GMAC, like a GMAC.* GMAC is fresh from a runner up finish at the US Open and like the other Northern Irish golfers will be determined to put on a show for the crowd. Along with Clarke he was very vocal in trying to get the Irish Open north of the border. Although this hasn't been his finest season he is sure to take a lot of heart from Olympic Club where he didn't play his best on the Sunday but still managed to nearly force a play off. I will be at Portrush for all four days of the tournament and irrespective of how the Northern Irish lads play they will be take alot of pride in the fact that their golf in the last few years has forced (maybe pursuaded) the tour to move the tournament north of the border and everyone will he hoping that if (*when) the tournament is deemed a success the Open Championship won't be far away from a visit to the North Coast.


My selections:


Brandon Grace each way @ 35/1 with Paddy Power
Padraig Harrington each way @ 12/1 with Skybet
Graeme McDowell each way @ 10/1 with Paddy Power  



2012 AT&T National at Congressional


This week the PGA Tour visits Congressional, which played host to the 2011 US Open. McIlroy won then and obviously was stuck between a rock and hard place when it came to choosing where he would tee it up this week. When the dust settled he chose (correctly) to play the Irish Open and therefore leaves this week's host Tiger Woods at the head of the market.


Every time Tiger turns up in a non major this weather I go through the same arguement in my head, is he too short? (his odds, he's 6' 1'') I'm obviously a massive fan but I write this blog for the gambling side and although I feel if he turns up with the game he had at Muirfield Village he wins, but at 11/2 I can't post him on here as a 'tip.' The majority of people who read my blog are golf fans anyway and don't really need me to tell them that if Tiger Woods turns up in form he probably wins. When chatting to mates about the dilemma of his short odds I do get reminded that I had a hefty sum on Tiger to win the US Open in '08 on one leg, but that was different, well sort of!


So this week I am going to stick to a couple of players who have been on the blog in recent weeks. First up, Hunter Mahan. Hunter was a real slow starter last week as one of my blog picks at the Travellers Championship but finished like a steam train. He posted a final round 61 before the leaders had even reached the first tee box. Course form-wise he missed the cut at the US Open here but has had a couple of Top 15 finishes and that's good enough for me. He tends to have slow starts of late but in his last two PGA Tour sanctioned events he's been among the low scorers on the Sunday (61 @ Travellers, 68 @ Memorial), so let's hope he gets off to a good start and puts himself in the slip stream for the W on Sunday.

Hunter Mahan

My second and final selection this week at Congressional is Dustin Johnson. Dustin is a friend of the blog after his victory in the St Jude Classic returned a nice 22/1 winner and I fancy him this week to bounce back from his missed cut at the Olympic Club (US Open). I suppose when coming back from an injury finding consistancy is the main goal so getting a win on his first start was great but he needs to start contending more often and won't want to be getting into a run of missed cuts in Ryder Cup year (currently 11th on the list). Johnson finished T-23 in the US Open here in '11 (or T-22 in the race for 2nd place behind McIlory *giggles*). Hopefully gets a W this week which would surely guarentee his place in the Ryder Cup team for Medinah in September.


As I am sure many of you noticed my blog post is a day later than usual, as I usually post on Tuesdays. Next week's blog will probably be Wednesday as well as I don't fly back to London until late Tuesday night. Although I didn't get a full write up done I hope a few of you got a few quid back off Fernandez-Castano last week, he finished in a T-3 in the BMW International (SP 70/1), Mahan in T-11 was the best of the pair of PGA Tour selections I posted. Enjoy!



My Selections:


Hunter Mahan each way @ 14/1 with Stan James
Dustin Johnson each way@ 16/1 (General)

Traveller's Championship & BMW International Open

Unfortunately I have no time to write a blog this week, but my picks are - Travellers Champ - Mahan 16/1 (EW) with Coral & Van Pelt 28/1 (EW) with SkyBet . In BMW International Open I fancy Paul Lawrie 20/1 (EW) with Paddy Power & Fernandez-Castano 70/1 (EW) with BetFred

Who will get the gold on Sunday at the Olympic Club?

The 2012 US Open at Olympic Club.

This week we have the second major of the season and in my opinion the most difficult to win. Narrow fairways and lightning fast greens are the norm on US Open week and this week at Olympic Club is no different. Olympic Club is situated in San Francisco and this week hosts the US Open for the fifth time; first time since 1998.

When Lee Janzen won in ’98 I hadn’t even held a golf club, probably hadn’t watched a tournament...but neither had Andy Zhang. This week Zhang becomes the youngest player to participate at the US Open in the post war era. At 14 he was born the same year that Tiger won the Masters for the first time and only six months before Janzen won at Olympic Club, which of course was the last time it was held here. Madness! Now, 14 years later I’m sat here writing a golf blog, counting down the days until the 21st of this month to I get back to Ireland for a few snap hooks and shanks and this kid is teeing it up at the US Open!

I haven’t seen any golf around Olympic Club so I took the course guide on the PGA Tour website to see what the set up was like this week. It’s a strong Par 70 with an absolute monster Par 5 16th which stretches to 670 yards, the longest hole in the 112 year history of the US Open, the bloody thing doglegs twice! The first thing I noticed was how narrow the fairways were, bottle neck entrances to greens and a few tricky doglegs from the tee. Graeme McDowell ‘tweeted’ a few pictures of the course in practise and implied through a few comments that driving will be key this week. Ben Crane also “tweeted’ saying that from all the players he had spoken to about the setup at Olympic Club they all said it was difficult, but fair. My favourite stat about the course is the fact that it only has one fairway bunker!

The infamous 16th at Olympic Club

Dustin Johnson won the St Jude Classic last week at TPC Southwind and now has the task of trying to become the first player in US Open history to win the week before and go on to claim the second major the following week. That’s quite a stat! Players have won the week before a major, ten in total, most notably, Tiger won a WGC event before the PGA Championship (’07) and Mickelson won the BellSouth Classic the week before the Masters (’06), but no one has managed to do the double with the US Open, Dustin will be hoping to change that this week.

To be honest I’ve had an idea of who I was going to select for the US Open for quite a while, nothing that’s happened in the last few weeks has changed that. I would love to see a Tiger Woods victory and he has a great chance, his driving has improved no end and his scrambling is nearly back to its best, but at the price I won’t have any financial interest in him! McIlroy’s driver could cost him any chance of defending his title, he missed 30 of the 56 fairways last week and still nearly won, Olympic Club won’t be as forgiving as TPC Southwind though! Donald and Westwood have obvious chances on current form though the former doesn’t have a good record around US Open courses and the latter... well he just can’t seem to get the job done in the majors, like everyone else I would love to see him get the W on Sunday but at his price he’s not a viable each way alternative this week.

So let’s get on to who I do fancy at the prices this week. First up is Justin Rose. Rose has already won a World Golf Championship this year and has all the tools in the bag to challenge for a US Open title. His stats support this, 19th in Driving Accuracy, 3rd in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 6th in Scrambling. The last stat will be the most important this week, the ability to avoid bogeys is the key; par golf could get the job done. My only worry about Rose is his putting, 123^rd in Strokes gained through putting coming into this week, but as I said he might not need to ‘gain’ too many to win, it’s all about limiting bogeys and picking up the odd birdie at the Par 5’s (probably not the 16th)! I just hope he keeps up his trend of playing the more difficult courses this season well (Doral (1st), Augusta (T-8th), and Muirfield Village (8th)).

Justin Rose

My second selection is Jason Dufner. He has been the player of the season thus far on the PGA Tour, two wins and five top 10’s is a great return for 14 starts. His performance stats are equally as impressive, 11^th in Driving Accuracy, 6^th in GIR and 17^th in Scrambling. His weakness is his putter but it hasn’t exactly held him back this season, has it?! He got the putter going at the Zurich Classic in April and returned a nice 28/1 winner for the blog, and followed it up with his second win, this time at the Byron Nelson. He hasn’t teed it up since his runner up finish at the Crowne Plaza a few weeks ago. Dufner knows what the final day of a major feels like after he and Keegan Bradley battled for the PGA last year, he didn’t win that day but the experience will be invaluable and he will be looking to make amends. Let’s hope he’s brought his putting boots again because there is sure to be a lot of squeaky 5-10 footers throughout the four days.

Jason Dufner

My third selection this week is Rickie Fowler. Fowler has had a brilliant month or so on tour if you forget about his final round 84 at Memorial. Previous to that he picked up his first career win on the PGA Tour at the Wells Fargo Championship and followed that up with a runner up finish at the Players Championship. It must have been a big relief for him to finally get the victory that everyone had expected him to get a couple of years ago. Maybe when he was paired with Tiger in the final round at Memorial he piled the pressure on himself to go out and show the old master that the young pretender had his number, well he didn’t; Rickie shot 84 and Tiger shot 67 to win. But one poor round hasn’t changed my opinion of him. Stats wise Fowler’s strength is his driving, he’s 3^rd in Total Driving (combines both distance and accuracy), but I think his irons have been his trump card of late, the iron he hit into 18 in the play off with McIlroy was sublime. If Fowler gets in his comfort zone early on and stays there throughout the weekend he’s got the game to pick up his first major championship only weeks after picking up his first tour win!

Rickie Fowler

My Selections this week are:

Justin Rose @ 30/1 each way (six places) with Paddy Power

Jason Dufner @ 28/1 each way (six places) with Bet365

Rickie Fowler @ 35/1 each way (six places) with Paddy Power

Toms to make it a hatrick at TPC Southwind!

The FedEx St Jude Classic from TPC Southwind

The blog has been on a nice run these past couple of weeks (three winning selections with two outright winners) and hopefully we can keep that run going! I hope everyone got to see Tiger’s chip at the 16^th last week to effectively get the W. A quote from my blog post last week, “he can still play golf,” understatement of the century from yours truly. Other than Phil Mickelson and maybe Luke Donald I can’t think of any other player with the skills around the green to execute that shot, and to do it with the tourney on the line, the man is just different gravy at times! I really liked Jack Nicklaus’s commentary on the chip shot when he said “If he goes long, tournaments over, if he comes up short, tournaments over..” so he holed it! If you haven’t seen the shot yet, Click Here!

This week the PGA Tour we are at TPC Southwind for the St Jude Classic. David Toms has an impressive track record at in this tourney, with two wins (’03, ’04) and two runners up (’05, ’09) finishes. However he hasn’t had the most consistent of starts to the season, five top 20’s and four missed cuts among his twelve events he’s teed it up in this season. Stats wise Toms' is 2^nd in Driving Accuracy and 22^nd in GIR, which is what you want to see when you’re looking for stats to back your opinions up! However it doesn’t take a golf fanatic to tell you that to win nowadays on the PGA Tour you need to hole your fair share of ‘makeable putts.’ Toms doesn’t! He is ranked 165^th (One Hundred and Sixty Fifth!) in putts holed from between 5-15 feet, that needs to change this week, if it does I think he’s got a massive chance!

David Toms

In last week’s blog I touched on the fact that Dustin Johnson was returning from a back injury. He missed 11 weeks of golf and with his first trip to TPC Southwind he is obviously trying to get a few rounds under his belt before the 2^nd major championship of the season. Johnson had a solid tourney at the Memorial last week in difficult conditions, he was -2 going into the weekend before a 73, 75 over the weekend, but I’d say he would of been satisfied by that. His finishes pre-injury were pretty good, with three Top 10 finishes. He won't have rushed back from injury without putting the work in beforehand, and from what I saw last week his game is good enough shape to challenge here and get some momentum heading to the Olympic Club for the US Open.

My Top 10 selection this week is going to be Blake Adams. His week began on Monday at the US Open Sectional Qualifying in Columbus, Ohio, in which he posted -6 and qualified in 2^nd place to take one of the sixteen places on offer. He should be buzzing and after Harris English notched up a Top 10 (and a winning selection for the blog) in the same week (Crowne Plaza at Colonial) he qualified for the Open Championship I’m hoping Adams can do the same.

My Selections are:

David Toms @ 25/1 each way with BetFred

Dustin Johnson 22/1 each way with Stan James

Blake Adams @ 9/1 for a Top 10 finish with Ladbrokes