Luuuuuuke is a worthy favourite at Wentworth

BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth

This week Wentworth hosts the European Tours flagship event and has attracted a very strong field. With weather peaking at 25 degrees there is sure to be some low numbers this year. Last year six under won but you may need double that to get the W this week.

I think Luke Donald is a real worthy favourite and wouldn’t be scared to take some of the skinny odds available. Donald is defending champion and has just received three awards at the annual European Tour Award night, so confidence will be high. With the top three in the World Rankings all here this week there will be plenty of ranking points available and all the media coverage is sure to concentrate on that.

This weeks favourite and defending champion

My each way alternative, to Donald, is Francesco Molinari. Molinari is just off the back of a victory in the Spanish Open and has notched up eight Top 20 finishes in his nine starts on the European Tour this season. He has hit just over 80% of GIR this year which is really impressive and is the key to his game really, when he holes putts he contends, tee to green he is flawless most weeks. Although Molinari has no great course form it doesn’t bother me too much, the course has been changed more times than enough in recent years and every year gets criticism of some description. The 12^th hole has been changed from a Par 4 to a Par 5 which would be an advantage to both selections as they are not the longest of hitters!

My Selections:

Luke Donald @ 8/1 Outright with Paddy Power

Francesco Molinari @ 33/1 each way with Paddy Power

The Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial

Hunter Mahan is just off the back of a missed cut at the Players, which was a blip in what has been a very consistent season thus far. Colonial is a course that demands accuracy from the tee and accurate iron shots to small greens, which should suit Mahan. He is ranked 7^th in ‘Driving Accuracy’ and 5^th in ‘Greens in Regulation.’ Mahan has already had two W’s this season and a couple of other Top 15 finishes and is sure to pick up another victory soon, why not this week? The course is tailor made for his game.

Bo Van Pelt has had a couple of smart finishes at Colonial of late. He was 3^rd last year after closing with a round of 65 and finished 10^th in 2010. Van Pelt also features highly in the driving stats (6^th in Total Driving) and although his GIR stat isn’t that impressive (76^th on tour) he does get it done with the putter, ranked 2^nd in the ‘Strokes gained through putting’ stat.

Harris English hasn’t played Colonial before and that would usually worry me when deciding my picks. However English’s confidence will be sky high after Monday qualifying for the Open Championship at Gleneagles (no not that one) County Club which is nearby (so I believe), so I assume he’s fitted in a couple of practise rounds and hopefully likes what he sees! English shot rounds of 60 and 63 in the two round qualifier so his game is clearly where he wants it to be, hopefully good enough for a Top 10 finish.

My Selections:

Hunter Mahan @ 25/1 each way with Bet365

Bo Van Belt @ 25/1 each way with Paddy Power

Harris English @ 7/1 Top Ten Finish with Paddy Power

The Aussie boys to do the biz in Texas!

Byron Nelson Championship on the PGA Tour

This week’s action comes from TPC Four Seasons, no not the hotel, the golf course. It’s a tree lined course and being in Texas there’s sure to be a stiff breeze about over the weekend. There are a few notable holes to look out for, no more so than the 524 yard Par 4 3^rd hole, beast!

My first selection this week is my old buddy Adam Scott. As much as he is not having the year I expected or wanted him to have he’s posted a few good scores and hopefully will get a win soon and kick on for the rest of the season.  Scott has had three Top 15 finishes in his last three starts on the PGA Tour which includes an 8^th at the Masters (ante post pick) and 15^th at the Players last week. Stats wise he is back to the Scott of two years ago, plenty of GIR (ranked 5^th on tour) but not enough putts holed (Ranked 140^th in strokes gained through putting). Last year he appeared to have his putting woes sorted with the broom handled putter, hence my prediction in January for a good year for the Aussie, but the putts have dried up again, either that or I put the scud on him, probably the latter.

Adam Scott eyeing down an approach shot

My second selection is another Aussie, Jason Day. A bit like Scott he isn’t setting the tour alight this year but has the talent to put a missed cut behind him from last week at the Players and post a few good numbers at a course he clearly loves. TPC Sawgrass is a course that just doesn’t suit some player’s eye, like McIlroy it doesn’t seem to suit Days. So I am putting a line through last week and concentrating more on the T-9 at the Wells Fargo Championship the week before. With only two appearances at the Byron Nelson; he was 5^th last year and won the tourney in 2010. When looking at his stats and seeing that he is ranked 176^th in Driving Accuracy this season it doesn’t exactly fill with me confidence when the course is predominantly tree lined but let’s hope he gets the good vibes on the go at TPC Four Seasons and gets back to the form of last year which saw him contending in the majors.

Another selection this week stateside will be for the old Texas Master Justin Leonard to post a Top 20 finish. He’s clearly not the force he once was, but he can still throw in a couple of low rounds, especially around this track. He jointly holds the course record with a 61 and has a few other low 60’s to his name down the years. I couldn’t possibly put any money on him to win the tourney outright as he has been having a tough year, to say the least. However when you consider some of the numbers he can shoot round here the 125/1 on offer for him to be First Round Leader is worth a quid of anyone’s money.

 

My Selections:

Adam Scott @ 14/1 each way with Ladbrokes

Jason Day @ 20/1 each way with Paddy Power

Justin Leonard @ 125/1 First Round Leader with BetFred

Justin Leonard @ 5/1 Top 20 finish with Paddy Power

Volvo World Match Play Championship on the European Tour

With the Match Play being in Spain it gives potential Ryder Cup-er’s a chance to show the gaffer (Jose Maria Olazabel) what they can offer his team for September at Medinah. I think sticking to the market principals is the logical way to find the winner here this week.

This tourney is like no other in the way the format of the match play works. It’s a round robin with eight groups of three players who will play against each other on Thursday and Friday. The Top 2 from the three will then progress to the last 16 on Saturday and then the quarters. Both the Semi’s and the Final are played on Sunday.

My first selection is the defending champ Ian Poulter. I also had him tipped up last week and didn’t really want to be tipping the same golfer two weeks in a row but I genuinely feel he has a great chance to defend the title successfully for the first time since Ernie Els completed a hatrick in 2004. Poults got off to a great start for me last week when leading after the first round but he then threw in a couple of poor rounds to finish down the field. He isn’t quiet when it comes to his chances and seems very bullish and excited to play some match play in among a touch run of stroke play events.

My second selection is Graeme Mc Dowell. GMAC is a different player when it comes to match play and like Poults will be buzzing to tee it up on Thursday. He hasn’t really got going this year and this could be the sort of tourney to get his season up and running with plenty of Ryder Cup points on offer.

Like any Match Play there are sure to be a few upsets but I’d be surprised if one of the outsiders won this week. The event is sure to be dominated by the players that will more than likely represent Europe in the Ryder Cup in September.

My Selections:

Ian Poulter @ 10/1 Outright with BetFred

Graeme McDowell @ 14/1 Outright with SkyBet

Billyless Westy to get the W at Sawgrass

The Players Championship @ TPC Sawgrass

This week we have by far my favourite tourney outside the majors, the Player’s Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The Player’s Championship is not a normal PGA Tour tourney, it carries more prestige than most, actually all, apart from the majors, and this is where the debate begins!

Should there be a fifth major? Or will changing tradition ruin the value of the other four?! It’s a debate that will go on and on. If you’re watching the golf on Sky this week, expect this debate to take centre stage for the majority of the four days. Personally I don’t think it should be a major and I also think regardless of what we think or however long the pundits debate the topic, it never will! The problem is that some players in the last couple of years have chosen to skip it, for whatever reason, be it for rest or that they would rather prepare differently for the US Open in June.

The Player’s Championship was traditionally held in March but since 2007 has been shuffled (like many other tournaments) to a different time of the year. There a few reasons for this, one being that the players themselves tend to play in stretches so by positioning it in May it helped out tourneys in New Orleans and the Wells Fargo attract a few bigger names. Last year Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood were the major absentees, this year we have the newly crowned Masters Champ and fans favourite Bubba Watson. Now it should be pointed out that Bubba is skipping the tourney for family reasons. Bubba and wife Angie adopted a baby boy (named him Caleb) the week before the Masters and he has stated that he wishes to spend some quality time before a busy summer. Rors and Westy had no such excuse! Will Bruce and the boys (Sky Pundits) acknowledge the difference...probably not!

Sawgrass.... If there was ever a course that sets up for drama on a Sunday evening, this is it! In particular the infamous 17^th hole, with its island green, it really is a true test of nerve. I always wondered why Pampers don’t pay Tim Finchem and the boys a few quid to get some advertising boards popped up round the tee, it’s a PR dream! I read a stat today which sums up the hole, you have to go back to 1987 to find the last player who has birdied the 17^th all four days, the player in question was Paul Azinger.

The signature 17th hole @ TPC Sawgrass

Like TPC Louisiana, Sawgrass was designed by Pete Dye, same grass, the works, so it will do us no harm to look at the players that finished near the top of the leaderboard in New Orleans. The Zurich Classic was won by Jason Dufner and the Top 10 (and ties) comprised of Donald, Els, DeLaet, Palmer, Stricker, Duke, Tringale, Rollins, Fowler, Mathis and Rose. Out of those 12 names, here’s how they did at Sawgrass last year. Three finished inside the top 15 (Donald, Dufner and Stricker), four didn’t play, and one finished in 45^th and the other four missed the cut. As four didn’t play it means that nearly half of the remaining eight finished inside the Top 15, so there’s maybe a pointer there after all. Rickie Fowler is one of the four who missed the cut last year but he got his first PGA Tour win last week.

When I look through the previous winners at Sawgrass it’s not easy to find a trend. A small one I suppose would be out of the last five winners, only two (KJ Choi and Phil Mickelson) teed it up in May before Sawgrass, both finished T-3 in their respective tourneys  and none of the other three missed the cut on their last appearance. So that trend will be pleasing for Donald (3^rd in New Orleans) and Westwood (T-5 Wells-Fargo) fans and won’t give much encouragement to Tiger fans.

Although it’s only Monday (it is as I write this) all the major book makers are out to get the Tiger fans. Paddy Power have went 20/1 for a Tiger win and have sent a few tweets around to make sure everyone knows of this “massive” price. Can I just say, I’m a massive Tiger fan (second favourite golfer after Sergio) but I couldn’t back the man with monopoly money this week, he had to resort to irons off some of the tees last week and still didn’t make the cut for god’s sake!

My first selection this week is going to be Lee Westwood. Westy is off the back of a 66 last Sunday which got him a 5^th place finish in the Wells Fargo Championship. It was great to see as I thought last week could have been a struggle with the loss of Billy to injury! Yep, caddy Billy Foster regularly touted as the best in the business and one of the many reasons for Westy’s return to form in the last few years injured himself in a charity football game. Not exactly the thing that Westwood wanted to hear going into the busy summer time on tour. But Westy drafted in Cayce Kerr, who is Freddie Couples caddy. It was obviously a slow burner but by Sunday it all fell into place. As stated above Westwood missed last year, and has only teed it up nine times at the stadium course, resulting in three Top 10s. He’s had four Top 5 finishes on the PGA Tour this season including a T-3 at the Masters. Westy also had a win in Indonesia a couple of weeks ago, granted it was a weak tournament, but wins breed confidence and confidence is something you need this week at Sawgrass.

My second selection is Sergio Garcia. Sergio won this event in 2008 and that wasn’t a fluke, he was runner up in 2007. Garcia is hard to rely on when it comes to having a bet on him, but he does enjoy it here, he hasn’t missed a cut since ’03 and I fancy him to go well this week. Sergio hasn’t challenged much in America this year, six appearances, and six cuts made but only notching up the one Top 10. Ironically his putting has improved no end, ranked 13^th in Strokes gained through putting this year with his reliable accuracy been more at fault this year. That said he is still ranked in the Top 10 in Total Driving this year.  Hopefully when he sets his eyes on the 17^th green memories of his win in 2008 will come flooding back, especially that iron shot he hit to win it!

My third and final selection is Ian Poulter. Poults’ is a man in form and a man that oozes confidence. The 90/1 offered by BET365 won’t last. He has been a runner up here (’09) and is just off the back of a 3^rd place finish at Arnie’s tourney and a 7^th place finish at the Masters. A lot of people don’t like backing Poulter because they think he’s “all show” and is more interested in his fashion range but don’t be fooled he maybe doesn’t have the talent of a Woods or McIlroy but what he does have is a lot of fight and can grind like the best of them. This will be a grinding week, for everyone!

My Selections:

Lee Westwood @ 16/1 each way with Coral

Sergio Garcia @ 45/1 each way with Bet365

Ian Poulter @ 90/1 each way with Bet365

Lefty to lead Rors and Tiger on a merry dance!

The PGA Tour

Wells Fargo Championship @ Quail Hollow

Phil Mickelson, as usual, will be the fans favourite this week and he is turning up at a tournament he clearly loves. His form figures for his last eight starts here are T5-T7-35-3-12-5-2-T9, one word, impressive! His tourney form is obviously a massive plus, but his form this year isn’t too shabby either. Mickelson last teed it up at Augusta where he finished 3^rd and has had a win (Pebble Beach) and two other Top 5’s this year. I still think his putting display on the final day at Pebble Beach was the best on show anywhere this year on a Sunday. Phil’s putting has always been the thing that influences his week, sure he drives the ball all over the place at times but with his recovery game you don’t tend to worry too much! His putting is a worry at times, he tends to miss a few short putts at the wrong times and that’s not something you can do when you are playing in a strong field, but this year Mickelson is ranked 3^rd in strokes gained through putting and that is the key to his good play so far this year. With the media chasing after Rory and Tiger all week, Phil will want to make sure that everyone will be chasing him on the back nine on Sunday, especially Tiger.

Phil Mickelson looking as relaxed as usual

Zach Johnson is coming off a 2^nd place at the Heritage last time out and I fancy him to go well again this week. Sixth last year was his best finish at this event and hopefully with the progressive year he is having he can better that come Sunday.  Zach is one of these players who consistently plays well without really contending for many titles, he’s made 10 cuts out of 10 starts this year, returning four Top 20 finishes as a result. Johnson is one of the shortest hitters on tour, but for what he lacks in distances he makes up for in accuracy (6^th straightest on tour). The ranking for ‘Birdies or better on Par 5’s’ is a ranking you would assume is dominated by big hitters; Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, JB Holmes etc etc, and why wouldn’t you, length usually plays a big part. But Zach Johnson is actually ranked 8^th in this performance stat, and there’s one main reason, his wedges! From 100 yards in, he is as good as it gets. He best displayed this when he infamously laid up at every Par 5 at Augusta the year he won his Masters title. There’s a little lesson there for all you aspiring golfers, it’s not all slap, bang wallop, sometimes it’s all about scrambling when out of position, another thing that Zach does well (ranked 9^th). Zach seems to rely a lot on his scrambling at times because unfortunately his iron play isn’t as accurate as his driving, ranked 101^st in GIR (Green in Regulation). Hopefully Johnson can hit a few more greens this week and take the pressure off his short game, if he does; he could get the ‘W’ on Sunday.

Lucas Glover is not having the finest of seasons so far and will almost certainly not win this week but as the old saying goes “horses for courses.” He is the defending champion this week and on top of that victory last year he was runner up in 2009. He has also had top 10 finishes in the form of a T-4^TH finish in ’06 and a T-10^th in ‘04. In the off chance he turns up this week and gets back into his comfort zone the 9/1 on offer for a Top 10 finish could be tasty.

My Selections:

Phil Mickelson @ 11/1 Outright with Bet365

Zach Johnson @ 33/1 each way with Sky Bet

Lucas Glover @ 9/1 Top 10 finish with Paddy Power

The European Tour

Open de Espana @ Real Club de golf de Sevilla

This week in Spain is sure to be emotional. It’s’ Seve’s anniversary. Seve was everything that was great about Spanish golf and the natives will be looking to put on a real show this week and hopefully get a Spanish winner.

In the hope that there is a Spanish winner I am siding with  Rafael Cabrera-Bello. My selection is someone who I have been keeping a close eye on since his triumph in Dubai at the start of the season. I have previously tipped him up on the blog; at the Open de Andalucía where he didn’t performance as I had hoped (finished 47^th) but I am going to stick with him this week. He has tourney form (11^th last year and T6 in ’09) but not course form as they have moved the tournament. It’s being played at the ‘Real Club de golf de Sevilla’ where they also played in 2010 and 2008. Every time I read up on this guy I like him more (swear I’m straight). The most recent interesting stat is that he won his national championship every year from Under 7 to Under 18 level, *protégé! Since my blog post about him in March he has notched up a 3^rd place finish in Malaysia so I haven’t completely put the kiss of death on him! As stated at the start of this paragraph I do think a Spanish player will win this week and I am hoping I have sided with the right one!

On the off chance (giggles) that I am wrong and the winner isn’t Spanish I am hoping that they come from another hot European country...Scotland! Paul Lawrie has been good to me this year (40/1 winner in Qatar) and has contributed to my retirement fund but I think he could make me a few more dollaaa! On the back of that win Lawrie broke into the Top 50 in the world again and subsequently got to Augusta (finished 24^th) and I think he will win again this year at some point. As I am not Mystic Meg I can’t tell you exactly when but I will have an educated guess at this week! Unlike my other selection Lawrie has both course form and tourney form, the course form coming when he finished in a T-6 in 2010 and adding his 5^th place finish last year that tells me he likes Spain in May!  

My Selections:

Rafael Cabrera-Bello 50/1 each way with Sporting Bet (5 places)

Paul Lawrie 28/1 each way (General) (5 places)

Charlie Howell to make it third (III) time lucky!

The PGA Tour



Zurich Classic of New Orleans



The Zurich Classic of New Orleans will be the fifth event held at TPC Louisiana since Hurricane Katrina. The course like most other places in New Orleans suffered damage and subsequently got altered before the course hosted the tournament in ’07. TPC Louisiana measures 7.520 yards and is essentially a shot maker’s golf course, this highlighted no more so when Bubba Watson won last year.



One of my old favourites has plenty of tournament form and I expect after a renaissance to his golf game of late that he will be there or thereabouts come Sunday. Charles Howell III hasn’t missed a cut in 9 appearances in the tournament and has twice been Runner-up (’06,’09). His driving is his Achilles heel and usually dictates his position on the leader board, but regardless of his poor driving stat (142ndin Driving Accuracy) his previous tourney form is a big positive. Howell III is in the Top 40 in GIR (Greens in Regulation) which is pretty good considering he doesn’t seem to get the chance to hit his approaches from too many fairways!



Charles Howell III during his third round last year at TPC Louisiana


 



Jason Dufner is my other selection in New Orleans this week. Dufner reminds me of a young Freddie Couples with his stress free approach to golf. Ironically playing with Freddie at Augusta seemed to be a hindrance and Dufner dropped down the leader board after a very promising start. Since the Masters, Dufner has teed it up at the Heritage where he finished in a T-24. Again, like Howell III, Dufner has solid tourney form with Top 10’s in each of his last three appearances at TPC Louisiana. As a person who likes his stats it was pleasing for me to see that Dufner is inside the Top 10 in the ‘all round ranking’ on the PGA Tour, this gets calculated from your GIR, Driving and Putting stats. It should be noted that putting is far from his strength and he hasn’t actually been in the Top 100 in the putting stats in four years! But Dufner has had a real progressive year, after missing the cut in his seasonal reappearance he has made his last ten on the trot, racking up Top 25 finishes in the last four events he has started.




My Selections:

Charles Howell III 45/1 Each way and 4/1 Top 10 Bet365

Jason Dufner 28/1 each way with BetFred





European Tour



Ballantines Championship 


This week’s “European” Tour action comes from Blackstone GC in Seoul, South Korea. Lee Westwood has chosen not to come and defend his title this week and has therefore left Adam Scott at the head of the betting. Scott has a great record in Asia and is a previous winner so he is a deserving favourite this week with the book makers. Although I am a massive Scott fan, as my readers well know by now, I am going to avoid him this week as he hasn’t shown me anything this season to have me put some hard earned (in case the bosses are reading) cash on him at a single figure price.



At a bigger price I fancy Jbe Kruger to go well. The South African is a fiery little man, who only stands 5’5” tall but has still managed to average over 300 yards off the tee this season. He already has a ‘W’ this season, this coming when he won the Avantha Masters in India. He finished seventh in this event last year on his only appearance and hopefully has some fond memories. Kruger has notched up three other Top 20 finishes outside of his victory. As stated above he hits the ball along way but also boasts an impressive GIR percentage, averaging nearly 75% so far in 2012.



Thorbjørn Olesen is another player trying to establish himself as a European Tour player. He finally got his victory that many had touted in the Sicilian Open. Olesen has huge potential and many regard him as a future Ryder Cup player, whether Medinah comes too early or not, he will certainly feature sooner rather than later. The key to his performances so far this season has been his putting, averaging only 28.46 putts per round he’s sure to make up a couple of strokes on the field each week. With three Top 10’s already this year he has certainly settled in nicely on tour and I think he will most definitely notch up another victory this season, let’s hope it’s this week!



My Selections:


Jbe Kruger 40/1 each way with Will Hill 


Thorbjørn Olesen 40/1 each way with BetVictor

Jim'll fix it at Harbour Town!

RBC Heritage

One of my favourite events on the PGA Tour takes place this week at Harbour Town Links, Hilton Head. The 18^th hole is one of the most epic finishes on the PGA Tour and is always sure to produce drama come Sunday evening.

18th hole at Harbour Town

The 2010 champ Jim Furyk is fresh off a Top 15 finish at the Masters and I expect him to put in another good showing at the Heritage.  In the last 7 years he has 4 Top 10’s; these include his 2010 win and two Runners-up finishes. Furyk has had a good start to 2012 after a very disappointing 2011, he put in a good showing at Bay Hill after a playoff defeat at the Transitions Championship. Driving will be key this week and Furyk is statistically the straightest driver on tour. If Jim gets the putter going he should be there or thereabouts on Sunday.

My other selection this week has plenty of course form as well. Bo Van Pelt has finished in the Top 15 50% (3 from 6) of time he has teed it up at Harbour Town. More importantly though Van Pelt turns up with plenty of momentum; he closed with a 64 at Augusta for a Top 20 finish. Van Pelt has some impressive stats beside his name; he is ranked 1^st in Total Driving and 1^st in the All Round Ranking (this takes in GIR, Putting and Driving). Bo has 4 Top 10’s this year which is the most on tour and hopefully he can give his supporters another good sweat this week.

My Selections:

Jim Furyk @ 18/1 each way with Bet365
Bo Van Pelt @ 25/1 each way with BetFred

Maybank Malaysian Open

With Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen travelling to Malaysia from Augusta there is plenty of class at the head of the market.  Although all three have the class to run away with this tourney I am taking the gamble that they will be feeling the effects of the Masters, especially Runner up Oosthuizen.

Matteo Manassero is the defending champ this week, and I fully expect him to put on a great defence. Manassero has already racked up 3 Top 10’s this year and was very unfortunate to miss out on the Masters himself. He didn’t hide the fact that he wanted a good start to the season to push his way up the rankings and into the Masters, even with the Top 10’s he came up shy. Manassero has 2 wins on the European Tour and I fancy him to make it 3 this week.

Matteo Manassero lifting the trophy last year

Michael Hoey hasn’t been seen since his sensational win in the Trophee Hassan II in Morocco where he shot a pair of 65’s over the weekend to get the ‘W.’ Although Hoey isn’t a household name like his Northern Irish counterpart Rory McIlroy he actually has more victories than him on the European Tour (4>3). Hoey is an inconsistent sort, he’s very hard to catch right, but with 4 victories on tour and 4 victories on the Challenge Tour it’s clear when he puts himself in position he gets the job done. He found the putter working for him over the weekend in Morocco and his Putts per Green (1.77) stat is the best it’s been in 5 years on the European Tour. His biggest win was probably at the Alfred Dunhill, holding off Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington, 3 major winners. Maybe it’s an omen and he can hopefully hold off another 3 this week.

My Selections:

Matteo Manassero @ 16/1 each way with Ladbrokes (5 places)

Michael Hoey @ 60/1 each way with Bet365 (5 places)

Donald in 'Stealth Mode' to grab the Green Jacket

Masters week has finally arrived and to say I’m buzzing with anticipation for Thursday is an understatement. I think there’s a different feel to the Masters than any of the other majors.



I don’t remember a Masters in recent years with this type of build up, the media have really exhausted the whole Tiger versus Rory match up in recent days, but you can understand why. When Rory won the US Open last year everyone practically awarded the next few majors to him without a tee shot being hit. This was down to two main reasons, one being; they argued that McIlroy was only going to get better, and the second reason was that he didn’t have any long term competition to speak of. To be honest I agreed with them, Tiger was in the depths of despair with his game, Mickelson was getting on a little and there didn’t look to be anyone up and coming with enough talent to challenge his week in week out. But roll on 9 months, Tiger has found his swing again with Sean Foley, Keegan Bradley has turned into a real class act and Luke Donald just seems to be a thorn in everyone’s side.

Obviously everyone has their opinion on Tiger; I do, and like everyone I’ve aired mine a few times. But this blog is about the Masters this week so I won’t start a rant; I just hope that after this week that regardless of your opinion on Tiger the person, you will agree that golf needs Tiger Woods. Looking back through the years you see that there has been some great rivalaries, Nicklaus had Watson, Faldo had Norman, Woods and Mickelson and McIlroy will hopefully have the second coming of Tiger Woods. When watching the golf on the Saturday of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and seeing how comfortable Woods seemed to be with his swing again I cheekily tweeted a few of the big bookmakers to ask for a price on Tiger and Rory being paired together in the final group on Sunday at the Masters, I was offered 16/1 which I thought was quite reasonable and invested some of my hard earned cash!

Will we see this on Sunday?

With all of the above said, I started the blog to try and find some value in the tournaments and nothing has changed this week. With Woods and McIlroy at the head of the market and with very skinny odds I think the 16/1 on Luke Donald is a cracking each way bet, ¼ the odds for 5 places is a real banker in my opinion.  I had backed him last year when he came T-4 before he went on to having an unbelievable year, winning BOTH money titles, the first time that had ever been done. He went out and won a tournament he had to win to wrap up the money title in America, that’s delivering under pressure and that’s a quality you need if you have any intention of winning a major. After last year, pundits questioned would he be able to play again to that level, well, he’s already won again this year and retained his Number 1 spot from McIlroy, so that answers that; the win also happened to be his last start (Transitions Tournament) so he’s carrying plenty of momentum into this week.

Another Englishman I fancy to go well this week is Justin Rose. T-11 last year and already a ‘W’ this year he seems to have established himself as the player everyone hoped he would be when he burst on the scene as an amateur in the Open Championship nearly 15 years ago! When you are looking for a player to invest money in you need to find someone who hits plenty of GIR (Greens in Regulation). If you short side yourself round Augusta you drop shots, fact! Well unless it’s the 16th hole and your name's Tiger Woods, Nike made an ad from that one! Rose is comfortably inside the Top 20 in GIR and like Donald carries plenty of momentum after his win at the WGC Cadillac tourney. One thing I would say about Rose and it was well demonstrated at Bay Hill is that when his putter is cold, it’s ice cold! Hopefully this week he finds the puttering stroke he had at Doral, if he does, he’ll be bang there.

I, of course tipped up Adam Scott at the start of the season, (see Ante Post Masters post) and although I am disappointed in his season thus far he still remains a threat, T-2 last year and hasn’t played much this year.

Now for a few Top 10/20 bets. Angel Cabrera is 5/2 to finish in the Top 20 and 13/2 to finish in the Top 10. El Pato (The duck) as he is affectionately known as is a previous winner and seems to find his best form round here regardless of how he’s being playing in the weeks prior. He missed the cut the week before the Masters last year, before finished 7th, he was 73rd the week before the 2010 Masters where he notched up at Top 20 finish and in 2009 when he won the Masters he missed the cut the week before! He was T-21 last week, enough said!

Another Top 20 finish I fancy this week is Martin Laird. Laird has been a real solid player in the States. He move there to play college golf and now resides in Arizona. Laird has two PGA Tour wins, and 17 Top 10 finishes in his short time on tour. That’s pretty impressive when you think of the depth of the PGA Tour nowadays. He has had two Top 5 finishes already this year and had a real strong finish to last year; he also finished in a T-20 in the Masters in his first appearance at Augusta. The 4/1 for a Top 20 finish is well worth a punt!

You can’t really write a blog about the Masters without mentioning Freddie Couples, for obvious reasons. Couples is one of those players that every so often come along; in every sport, who people seem to relate to and cheer for regardless of how well he may or may not be playing. He is of course now plying his trade on the Champions Tour where he is still getting a few ‘W’s!  When I was thinking of putting him up as a selection I thought mhhmmmm surely he’s too old? There’s bound to better value elsewhere? But 11 Top 10’s and a victory (’92) in his career at Augusta I thought I would be crazy not to point him out. The most ridiculous stat of them all is that of those 11 Top 10’s, he’s had at least one of them in each of the last FOUR decades, boom! *dusts down shoulder* Will Hill offer 10/3 for him to grab a Top 20 finish come Sunday evening.

The Legend that is Fred Couples

With the bookies offering so many different markets it’s hard to go through them all and pick out selections. All the top firms have, Top European, Top Australasian, Top American etc, but the one that interests me is Top Debutant.  Now, the only problem with this market is, you’ve no course form to go on! Keegan Bradley is deservingly a short priced favourite (11/8) in this market as he is of course a major winner and probably the best young talent in American golf. But at that price he isn’t for me. I think everyone had to be impressed with the way Kyle Stanley won his first PGA tour event. He of course blew up the week before, throwing away a mammoth lead going into the final day. He has been a little quiet of late but in what looks like a 4 way match up for the debutant's title between Bradley, Webb Simpson, Sang-Moon Bae and Stanley I think 7/1 is very generous and will take a nibble at that.

I mentioned the bet I did regarding Tiger, Rory and the final round pairing earlier and I am sure there’ll be a few interested parties to the ‘Forecast Market.’ Yes, you read that right; in a 96 runner field the bookies have invited you to predict the 1-2. The bookies are obviously trying to line their pockets by using the media hype round Tiger and Rory and are offering 22/1 and 25/1 for the forecast. It sounds crazy and might even be called a ‘mug’ bet but let’s be honest would anyone be surprised?

My selections:

Luke Donald @ 16/1 each way with Bet365

Justin Rose @33/1 each way with BetVictor

Angel Cabrera @ 5/2 Top 20 with Stan James & 13/2 Top 10 with BetVictor

Martin Laird @ 4/1 Top 20 & 9/1 Top 10 with Stan James

Fred Couples @ 10/3 Top 20 with Will Hill

Adam Scott @ 33/1 with Paddy Power  ANTEPOST Selection